Gamble on Anything. Except Murder. (with Bobby Allyn and Grant Slater)

With prediction markets, gambling has gone ambient. To place your bets, you don't need to visit a casino floor, a racetrack, or your corner bookie. Now any uncertain thing on Earth could be the next big short. Wildfires, missile strikes, the next word out of a president's mouth. Every disagreement has a spread, every catastrophe a payout. In this episode, NPR tech correspondent Bobby Allyn follows the money through Kalshi and Polymarket, the fast-growing, barely regulated prediction markets that have gotten tight with the Trump administration. These apps democratize insider trading. When reality pays out, the incentive isn't to predict what happens next. It's to make it happen. Subscribe to Futurology on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@Futurologypod The Futurology Podcast — full episodes on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLwkiuf1eRbAAHP4p--2IFJbn0CIdaZMva Apple Podcasts https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/futurology/id1821718921 Spotify https://open.spotify.com/show/2I38HvHP6KlXrD5ysfygxk Mentioned in this Episode: The Wisdom of Crowds — James Surowiecki (Book, 2004) Google Zero is here — now what? — Nilay Patel, The Verge (Article, 2024) Iowa Electronic Markets — University of Iowa (Prediction market experiment, est. 1988) A Cosmic Voyage Through Deep Time  — (with Ross Andersen and Grant Slater) — Futurology (Episode, 2025) Where to find Bobby Allyn NPR X Bluesky Instagram Show ideas and feedback? Email: [email protected] Learn more about the Berggruen Institute https://www.berggruen.org Follow Futurology! Instagram:  / futurologypod Twitter/X:  / futurologypod Tiktok:  / futurologypod Facebook:  / berggrueninst LinkedIn:  / berggrueninst Bluesky:  / futurologypod Credits Executive Producers: Nicolas Berggruen, Nathan Gardels, Nils Gilman, Dawn Nakagawa, & Jason Hoch Producers: Grant Slater, Alex Gardels, & Nathalia Ramos Associate Producer: Elissa Mardiney Theme Music: Marcus Bagala Audio Engineer: Kyle Scott Wilson   Futurology is a production of Studio B and Wavland for the Berggruen Institute in Los Angeles, California.