Gerard Minack, Founder, Minack Advisors

When your very first day in the investment industry happens to coincide with a 20% plunge in the S&P 500 Index, your ultimate risk philosophy is likely to incorporate a strong appreciation for market psychology. Such is the case for Gerard Minack, who began his career on October 19th, 1987. Plying his trade throughout the 1990’s, Gerard would ultimately rise to lead Morgan Stanley’s macro strategy effort. In 2013, seeking to increase his PB ratio, he launched his own firm, Minack Advisors, focused on delivering his insights on markets, monetary policy and the global economy to an institutional client base. Our conversation is part retrospective on the history of important risk events, where we delve into both the tech bubble and the Global Financial Crisis and discuss the powerful role of psychology during both episodes. On a more current basis, Gerard shares his analysis of the extraordinary monetary policy regime including negative rates and QE, both of which he views as underwhelming with respect to their ultimate impact on growth and inflation. Gerard has strong views on structural secular stagnation, a thesis he lays out utilizing a framework that gives weight to slowing population growth and the mismatch between global savings and investment. I also solicit his views on disinflation, the Phillips Curve and Modern Monetary Theory. I find Gerard Minack’s insights highly compelling and I hope you enjoy our conversation in this episode of the Alpha Exchange.