Der Survivorship Bias und die Illusion des Erfolgs

What this episode covers

Das US-amerikanische Militär hat im Zweiten Weltkrieg ein Problem: Viele Flieger ihrer Luftwaffe kehren gar nicht oder stark beschädigt zurück. Die US Air Force bittet den Mathematiker Abraham Wald um Hilfe: Er soll mit statistischen Methoden herausfinden, wie das Militär seine Flugzeuge sicherer machen kann. Manons „Spektrum“-Artikel zum Mythos um Abraham Wald und den Survivorship Bias lest ihr hier. Wer sich tiefer in das Thema einlesen möchte, kann das hier tun: Harold Hotelling: Abraham Wald. In: The American Statistician Vol. 5, No. 1 (1951) J. Wolfowitz: Abraham Wald, 1902-1950. In: The Annals of Mathematical Statistics Vol 3, No. 1 (1952) Marc Mangel and Francisco J. Samaniego: Abraham Wald’s Work on Aircraft Survivability. In: Journal of the American Statistical Association Vol. 79, No. 386 (1984) Die Idee für diesen Podcast hat Demian Nahuel Goos am MIP.labor entwickelt, der Ideenwerkstatt für Wissenschaftsjournalismus zu Mathematik, Informatik und Physik an der Freien Universität Berlin, ermöglicht durch die Klaus Tschira Stiftung. (00:00:00) Einleitung (00:03:41) Der Mythos um Abraham Wald (00:08:01) Der Survivorship Bias (00:10:06) Mit Statistik zu mehr Flugzeugsicherheit (00:14:25) Walds letzter Schicksalsschlag & Demians Ratschlag (00:16:29) Fazit & Verabschiedung ➡️ Artikel zum Nachlesen: https://detektor.fm/wissen/geschichten-aus-der-mathematik-survivorship-bias

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This episode was published on July 15, 2025.

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Das US-amerikanische Militär hat im Zweiten Weltkrieg ein Problem: Viele Flieger ihrer Luftwaffe kehren gar nicht oder stark beschädigt zurück. Die US Air Force bittet den Mathematiker Abraham Wald um Hilfe: Er soll mit statistischen Methoden...

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