Getting to 2%: Lessons from Disinflation Experiences

The Federal Reserve has seen much success in its fight against inflation. The headline rate over the 12 months ending in August 2023 was 3.7%; much lower than the peak of 9.1% in June 2022. Notably, inflation has come down with virtually no rise in unemployment. But it remains higher than the Fed's 2% target. Will reducing inflation by another 1.7 percentage points prove as costless to output and employment? What lessons can the Fed draw from moderate disinflationary episodes in other countries? Peter Blair Henry joins EconoFact Chats to discuss his findings on these issues, drawing on a recent Foreign Affairs article co-authored with Anusha Chari (University of North Carolina). Peter is a Senior Fellow at Stanford's Hoover Institution, and Dean Emeritus of New York University's Stern School of Business.