GLED013 - Week Ahead FOMC Positioning - Rate Cut Certainty, Maturity Wall, Global Capital Flows

Monday morning week-ahead positioning for institutional real estate capital ahead of the most consequential FOMC meeting of 2025. **Fed Watch:** 96% probability of 0.25% cut at September 16-17 FOMC. Federal funds rate positioned to move from 4.25%-4.50% to 4.00%-4.25%. 10-year Treasury at 4.082% with new issues at 4.250%. Commercial mortgage rates starting at 5.08% positioned for compression. **CMBS Momentum:** Private-label issuance up 23.9% YoY through August. H1 2025 recorded $59.55B (highest mid-year total in 15+ years). SASB deals constituting 75% of market issuance. Delinquency rate climbed to 7.9% with $54.8B requiring servicer advances. **Global Investment Recovery:** Direct transaction activity $179B in Q2 2025 (14% YoY increase). H1 2025 volumes up 21% from H1 2024. Cross-border Asia-Pacific investment doubled 116.7% YoY to $9.5B. International investors 28.4% of Asia-Pacific activity. **SWF Reallocation:** Real estate allocations declined to 7.3% from 9.2% in 2022. Infrastructure allocations surpassed real estate at 8.1%. Total SWF assets $13-14T. Middle Eastern funds control 54% of global deployment. **Sector Positioning:** Multifamily most preferred (Q2 volume up 39.5% YoY). Industrial steady at $31.4B H1, prices firm at $129/sq ft. Office vacancy bottoming with 5% leasing increase projected. Retail at 15-year vacancy low of 4.8%. **Maturity Wall:** $957B in commercial mortgages maturing by end 2025. LTV ratios tightened to 65%-70% range. Investment sales surged 25% in H1 2025 to $182.4B. **Week-Ahead Advantage:** Strategic positioning for Fed easing cycle initiation and commercial real estate recovery acceleration. Contact: [email protected]