Global Commodities: 2026 Outlook – Supply-driven crocodile cycle

Natasha Kaneva and team share J.P. Morgan’s 2026 Global Commodities Outlook. Commodity prices have experienced repeated and highly synchronized cycles across various markets over the past 50 years, with these fluctuations closely tied to global economic trends through shifts in demand. This co-movement broke down in 2024, as energy prices reset lower while metals prices surged, marking the emergence of a new commodity regime, driven by divergent supply dynamics.  Looking ahead to 2026 this deviation is expected to continue as supply-constrained metals continue to beat glutted energy.   Speakers:   Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research Greg Shearer, Head of Base & Precious Metals Research Otar Dgebuadze, Natural Gas Research   This podcast was recorded on December 5, 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5143468-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.