Global Commodities: Cocoa demand crunch not as bitter as feared

With Halloween around the corner, one of the peak seasons for chocolate and confectionery demand, cocoa prices have corrected sharply lower, down -20% MOM and YTD losses are approaching -40%, after historic gains through 2025. This week, the final-quarter demand side data for the 2024/25 season arrived, and the 3Q grind was generally better than expected – albeit still historically weak. It will, however, take some time before consumers start to see the declining input costs of chocolate production hit their hip pocket. But there are strong indications that perhaps the worst of the cocoa market crunch is over, and that industry can plan with a little more confidence than in recent years. Speaker: Tracey Allen, Senior Commodities Strategist, Head of Agricultural Commodities Research   This podcast was recorded on 17 October 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5096654-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.