Global Commodities: Oil glut paves way for stronger sanctions. If enforced

Nearly 70% of Russian crude production and exports are now under sanctions, raising costs and slowing settlements even though only 5% of exports use US dollars. Russia has relied on offshore traders and new entities to maintain flows, but this is more challenging for major producers like Rosneft and Lukoil. Indian imports may fall by 400 kbd, while Chinese flows should remain steady. Over time, Russia can redirect up to 0.8 mbd to other markets and China could absorb an additional 1 mbd, but profit margins will narrow due to higher costs and deeper discounts. Export volumes are expected to stabilize within a quarter after an initial pause.   Speaker:   Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research   This podcast was recorded on October 24, 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5106838-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.