EPISODE · Jan 28, 2026 · 1H 3M
GM95: When Consensus Gets the Cycle Wrong ft. Dario Perkins
from TopTradersUnplugged.com · host TopTradersUnplugged.com
In this episode, Alan Dunne is joined by Dario Perkins to examine why the global macro consensus may be fundamentally misreading the current cycle. The conversation moves from US fiscal stimulus and Federal Reserve credibility to the limits of the K-shaped economy narrative. Perkins challenges prevailing assumptions around AI-driven productivity, labor market weakness, and falling inflation, arguing that policy choices are pushing economies toward overheating rather than stagnation. The discussion extends to bond markets, term premia, Japan’s normalization, Europe’s fiscal pivot, and China’s rebalancing dilemma. What emerges is a picture of renewed growth, rising risks, and a cycle whose ending is now becoming visible. IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here: www.toptradersunplugged.com/Ultimate And you can get a free copy of my latest book "Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio" here: www.toptradersunplugged.com/10-reasons-optin Send your questions to [email protected] Follow Niels & Alan on Twitter: @TopTradersLive & @alanjdunne And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes and Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
What this episode covers
In this episode, Alan Dunne is joined by Dario Perkins to examine why the global macro consensus may be fundamentally misreading the current cycle. The conversation moves from US fiscal stimulus and Federal Reserve credibility to the limits of the K-shaped economy narrative. Perkins challenges prevailing assumptions around AI-driven productivity, labor market weakness, and falling inflation, arguing that policy choices are pushing economies toward overheating rather than stagnation. The discussion extends to bond markets, term premia, Japan’s normalization, Europe’s fiscal pivot, and China’s rebalancing dilemma. What emerges is a picture of renewed growth, rising risks, and a cycle whose ending is now becoming visible. IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here: www.toptradersunplugged.com/Ultimate And you can get a free copy of my latest book "Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio" here: www.toptradersunplugged.com/10-reasons-optin Send your questions to [email protected] Follow Niels & Alan on Twitter: @TopTradersLive & @alanjdunne And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes and Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
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GM95: When Consensus Gets the Cycle Wrong ft. Dario Perkins
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