Gold Lags but Mining Equities Outperform on Stock-Specific Catalysts

Recording date: 11th July 2026Olive Resource Capital delivered an approximate 15% return in the first half of 2026, outperforming many peers in a more moderate market environment compared to the strong gains of 2025. Returns were further supported by three portfolio company acquisitions, two of which closed the period, highlighting the role of opportunistic corporate activity in performance. The firm emphasized that such events are beneficial but not a reliable foundation for long-term strategy.The commodity landscape in H1 2026 was marked by a clear rotation. Lithium and oil emerged as the strongest performers, with oil remaining resilient despite price volatility and lithium rebounding after years of underinvestment. In contrast, gold, silver, and platinum group metals lagged after leading the previous year, undergoing what management described as a necessary consolidation phase.Despite weak underlying commodity prices, Olive’s strongest gains came from precious metals equities. This divergence reflects the firm’s focus on company-specific catalysts—such as mergers and acquisitions, resource updates, and technical studies—rather than direct exposure to commodity price movements. Holdings like K92 Mining exemplify this strategy, with growth-driven revaluation potential independent of gold price trends.Macroeconomic conditions remained broadly supportive, with strong global manufacturing activity and continued monetary stimulus, although reduced liquidity support from China is being monitored. Geopolitical tensions, including those involving Iran, influenced energy markets but were viewed as temporary disruptions with longer-term implications for supply chains and energy demand.Heading into the second half of 2026, the firm is cautiously deploying elevated cash reserves into energy and uranium, driven by themes such as AI-related power demand, electrification, and favorable seasonal trends. It continues to avoid West African development projects due to rising jurisdictional risks, instead favoring opportunities in North and South America where regulatory conditions are more stable and investment visibility is stronger.Sign up for Crux Investor: https://cruxinvestor.com