Gold took us up … and Gold will take us down

🌍 World Wide Markets Ep. 654 — 29 October 2025 🎙️ "Gold took us up … and gold will take us down." 🪙 Gold Takes the JSE for a Ride Gold led the JSE to record highs — and now it's leading it back down. Year-to-date returns: Gold +49 %, Harmony +87 %, Pan African +126 %, DRD +150 %, Gold Fields +162 %, AngloGold Ashanti* +167 %! Excluding dividends! Simon notes clear support around $3,600-3,800, with further downside likely. The Top 40 is up ~38 % YTD, but the Resources Index (Resi) is +93 % — remove that, and the market's ~20 %. Translation: half this year's gains came from gold ⛏️. When gold falls, the JSE will feel it. Simon spots a "kangaroo-tail" reversal candle — 10 straight green months is unprecedented 📉. Expect short-term weakness but the long-term gold story isn't over — deficits, inflation, and de-dollarization keep the bull case alive 💰. For those who "missed" gold, this pullback may be your chance — scale in slowly rather than catching the knife 🪙⚖️. Top40 Monthly chart 2025 💡 Optasia IPO Extended Fintech AI & machine-learning listing — application deadline extended to Thursday 30 Oct (lunchtime). Simon applied after FirstRand took a 20.1 % stake at R 19, top of the range 💼. Despite muted enthusiasm from guests on Stock Watch, the institutional interest makes it intriguing 🤖📊. Allocation risk remains — expect to receive only a fraction 🎟️. 🚗 WeBuyCars: Market Hits the Brakes Trading update disappointed; share price −13.5 %. HEPS: 222 – 226 c vs ~240 c consensus ➡️ P/E ≈ 20 ("fair"). Was pricey at ~30× earnings, now more realistic ⚖️. Chinese car imports may start competing at lower price points 🇨🇳 → potential pressure on used-car margins. Still, for those who missed the run, this could be a re-entry point 🚘. 🏠 Balwin Results Decent set of numbers — growth across Western Cape, KZN and Gauteng. No dividend 💧 → debt reduction focus. Sector tailwinds: lower rates + improving bond approvals (Uber = Ooba). Strong demand for mid-tier and affordable housing 🏗️. Simon holds Calgro M3* in the same space. ⛏️ Commodities & PGMs Holding Up Anglo American & Kumba raise guidance 👍 → stronger pricing and better rail flow. Valtera still recovering from floods, but higher PGM prices help. Platinum breakout ⚙️ $ 1 550 + after a decade range bound 850 – 1 100. Palladium rebounding too ( $ 1 700 resistance ). Trend: higher highs and higher lows 📈. 🏪 Pick n Pay: Slow Road to Recovery Still loss-making but loss shrinking 📉. Adjusting for Boxer, cash and tax deferrals → valuation ≈ –R 3 billion (cheap on paper). Sean Summers cautious: recovery will be slower than hoped. Needs to win market share from Shoprite* – a tough battle 🛒🆚. 🇨🇳🇺🇸 US-China Trade & Tariffs Possible trade deal emerging 🎯 — China may buy soybeans, ease rare-earth curbs. Perception = bullish for equities, bearish for gold (short term). US markets closing at record highs 📈 — a deal would supercharge them. Meanwhile, US Supreme Court to decide whether Trump can impose tariffs unilaterally. Lower court said no → prediction markets expect he'll lose ⚖️. Outcome could remove tariffs entirely – massive implications for trade and exporters. Retroactive refunds possible? Unclear 💵❓ 🏦 Shift Migration Update Standard Bank Online Share Trading, AutoShare Invest and WebTrader are migrating to the Shyft app 📲. Phase 2 migration this week → details at justonelap.com/powerhour. If you haven't been contacted, your turn comes in 2026 (probably after March). Shift offers cheapest Forex rates and multi-asset access globally 🌍💳. 💬 Final Thought "Gold gave us the party — and now it's calling last rounds." Expect volatility, opportunities, and reversals — but don't lose the big picture. Simon Brown 🎧 Worldwide Markets Ep. 654 | Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets & Shyft 💙 Look after yourself — and someone else too. Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order