Goldman Report Stays Golden

Housekeeping: Good Morning.Gold revaluation is a process not an eventToday:* Premium Analysis: Goldman Goes Gold* News: MS and Citi differ on Fed CutsPremium Analysis: Goldman Stays GoldenA brand new report from Goldman Sachs, titled "Go for Gold," is out. The best intro we can give is this audio one sent out yesterday. As to our own analysis. From Goldman Goes For the GoldGold remains the Bank's preferred near-term long position, with a maintained price target of $2,700 per ounce by early 2025. Their analysis attributes this bullish outlook to several factors:* Central bank gold purchases have tripled since mid-2022 due to fears of U.S. financial sanctions and sovereign debt concerns, which are expected to continue.* Imminent Federal Reserve rate cuts are likely to bring Western capital back into the gold market.* Gold's value as a hedge against both geopolitical risks and macroeconomic uncertainties is underscored as a compelling reason for maintaining long positionsThis is all in context of their underweighting of industrial commodities as their “2024 Deficits Basket is closed with an 8% gain as cyclical support softens.” Bottom Line. Gold is the only game in town for Commodities the next month or so at least. Context matters a great deal this time of year. We go into that in great detail.News: MS and Citi differ on Fed CutsMorgan Stanley says 25bps Payrolls unwind temporary weakness in TX (~25k), motor vehicles (~7k), andsome other exaggerated July slowing.We expect the reacceleration in payrolls to leave the Fed cutting 25bps in September.CITI says 50bps August employment data will be the pivotal factor determining whether Fed officials are likely to start the rate cutting cycle with a 50bp or 25bp cut in September. We expect a report largely similar to July –We expect this to lead the Fed to cut by 50bp in SeptemberMore on this tomorrowEquity Recap:US equities sold off sharply on Tuesday after disappointing manufacturing data. ISM's purchasing managers' index missed expectations and stayed in contraction, S&P Global's PMI also remained in contraction, and construction spending fell more than forecast.Market News: "The US Justice Department sent subpoenas to Nvidia and other companies as it seeks evidence that the chipmaker violated antitrust laws, an escalation of its investigation into the dominant provider of AI processors. Bloomberg"U.S. factories remained in slowdown mode in August, fueling fears about where the economy is headed, according to separate manufacturing gauges. CNBC"Citadel Securities is leading an industry pushback against an effort by exchanges including the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq to ask traders to help foot the bill for a new market surveillance system that has already racked up almost $1bn in costs." Source: FTPolitics/Geopolitics: * Ukraine's air defence engaged in repelling the second wave of Russian air attacks on Kyiv overnight, according to the country's military; engaged in repelling a drone attack on the western city of Lviv, near the Polish border.* Poland activated aircraft to ensure airspace security for the third time in eight days after Russia launched strikes on Ukraine, according to Polish armed forces.* Russia's Kremlin said Russia takes into account that Ukraine "will" use US long-range weapons in its attacks deep into Russian territory.* Russia and China are working on President Xi's participation in the BRICS summit in Russia's Kazan, according to Ria.Some headlines via NewSquawk or DataTrekData on Deck: * MONDAY, SEPT. 2 Labor Day * TUESDAY, SEPT. 3 10:00 am ISM manufacturing Aug. 47.9% 46.8% * WEDNESDAY, SEPT. 4 Factory orders * THURSDAY, SEPT. 5 S&P final U.S. services PMI Aug.* FRIDAY, SEPT. 6 8:30 am U.S. employment report Aug U.S. unemployment rate Aug. 4.2% 4.3%Final Market Check…Premium: Posted this morning 6:45 a.m.***DO NOT SHARE THIS*** This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit vblgoldfix.substack.com/subscribe