Good Things Happening in SA | How to Spot the Bubble Popping

Worldwide Markets — Episode 657 (19 November 2025) 🗓️📈 🔥 This Week on Worldwide Markets Good things are happening in South Africa 🇿🇦, bubble-watching on global markets 🎈, fresh ETF listings from Ninety One 📊, strong local results (Astral 🐔, WeBuyCars 🚗, Ninety One 💼), and the Year-End Power Hour opens for bookings 🎤✨. 🎈 Bubble Talk: When Does It Pop? Guest Insight: Citigroup's Dirk Willer (via Odd Lots podcast) Definition: A bubble = asset prices 2 standard deviations above the 1-year average. His exit rule: ➡️ Identify the drivers — the Magnificent 7 (Alphabet, Tesla, Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Meta). ➡️ The bubble pops when 2 of the 7 fall below their 200-day EMA 📉. Current Status: Meta: 12% below the 200-day ❗ Microsoft: +5.4% above Amazon: +6.5% above Others still safely above. 👉 So we're halfway to bubble-popping territory. 👉 But: bubbles make money on the way up — timing the exit is the key. Fun fact: Alphabet has negative net debt (more cash than debt) 💰. 📊 Ninety One Lists Two Actively Managed Income ETFs Two new AMETFs hit the JSE: 🇿🇦 91DINC (Local Income ETF) Quarterly dividends TER: ~0.25% (incl VAT) Tax-free account eligible ~20-year unit trust track record 🌍 91GINC (Global Income ETF) Accumulating (rolls up dividends) ~9% USD yield target Pays in ZAR on the JSE ~4.5% current USD yield Full explainer webcast here 🎥. 🇿🇦 Good Things Happening in South Africa Yes, things are still tough — but several green shoots 🌱: 1️⃣ Greylist Exit SA officially removed — major reputational win ✔️. 2️⃣ Medium-term Budget Positives Debt trajectory stabilising (may not hit 80%). Primary budget surplus — only ~6 countries globally manage this. Bond yields down ≈2%, reducing future borrowing costs. Precious metals boom boosting revenue 🪙⬆️. 3️⃣ New Inflation Target Formalised 3% target, with a 2–4% band 🎯. Helps competitiveness for exporters like citrus 🍊. 4️⃣ MPC Outlook Inflation at 3.4% — within band Simon expects a rate cut on Thursday ✂️💸. 5️⃣ Credit Rating Upgrade S&P: Upgraded SA from 3-notches Junk → 2-notches Junk. First upgrade in 16 years ⭐ Positive outlook — another upgrade possible. Moody's review coming in December. 6️⃣ Load Shedding Gone (for now) Effectively no load shedding for months ⚡😊. Operation Vulindlela turning to Transnet next 🚢. 7️⃣ GNU Functioning Smoothly Budget passed without drama Coalition politics fading into the background — exactly where they should be. ⚠️ But: Chronic unemployment (31%+) 😔 Inequality, poverty, crime remain severe issues → Growth is the only way to tackle these sustainably. 🎤 Year-End Power Hour — Book Now! Theme: Position Your Portfolio for 2026 Limited in-person seats Webcast available Simon reviews last year's predictions (and mocks himself 🤣) Then looks at 2026: gold, rand, upgrades, tariffs, etc. 👉 Book here 📈 Company Results Round-Up 🐔 Astral Foods A horror first half… turned around: What improved: Avian flu mostly gone; vaccination up to 30% Power issues stabilised Independent water supply Yellow maize prices lower 🌽⬇️ Pricing back to Dec 2023 levels Outlook: CEO Gary Arnold expects a strong FY to Sept 2025. More upside if maize stays low. 🚗 WeBuyCars Trading update spooked the market — PE dropped from mid-20s → high teens. Pressures: Cheap new Chinese cars (R300k range) compete aggressively 🇨🇳 Slower earnings growth (~mid-teens) Their response: Lower buying prices in segments competing with Chinese brands Future tailwind: cheap Chinese cars will enter second-hand market soon Record 16,000 monthly sales Scale still growing Valuation: Simon sees value emerging in the low-40s 👀. 💼 Ninety One (Asset Manager) Strong numbers; bull markets = good for AUM Market sold it off (priced for perfection?) PE ~11, DY ~6% — cheap metrics Analysts: 2 buys, 2 holds, 1 strong sell Price target avg ≈ R47.34 (around current price) 🏛️ Coronation Last year's SARS case win inflated the base → No repeat special dividends → Lower YoY numbers expected. 💱 Rand & Commodities 🇿🇦 Rand Broke below 17/USD last week (first time since early 2023) Now back around 17.20 Trend still strengthening — more in the Year-End Power Hour. 🪙 Gold Holding firm, not running Key levels: Support: ~R39,20 Risk: Lower highs + lower lows if it breaks Currently steady around R4,050. 📉 Markets & Crypto S&P drawdown: ~3.5–4% Nasdaq: ~5–5.5% → Much panic for not much movement 🤷‍♂️. ₿ Bitcoin Looking rough under R90,000 ⚙️ Nvidia Earnings — Wednesday A major market catalyst. Bad numbers could turn sentiment quickly. 🔭 Coming Up Next Week Simon looks at JSE top performers over the last 10 years 📈 (Spoiler: several gold miners… but almost all gains from the last year.) Then it's December wrap-ups → and back in January. Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order