Governance Stress Tests: Key Elections in 2026

As pivotal elections approach in the United States, Brazil, and Ethiopia, global businesses are navigating a rapidly evolving landscape of risks and opportunities. In this episode of The Decisive Podcast, host Kristen Hallam is joined by S&P Global Market Intelligence experts John Raines (Head of North America Country Risk), Rafael Amiel (Head of Latin America Economics), and Jordan Anderson (Principal Analyst, Sub-Saharan Africa Country Risk) to examine how political outcomes through 2026 will influence government stability, economic policy, and geopolitical risk well into 2027 and beyond. Listeners will gain exclusive insights into potential market volatility as the panel explores the implications of the U.S. midterms, Brazil's presidential race, and Ethiopia's general elections. The discussion covers how shifting political dynamics may impact trade, supply chains, regulatory frameworks, and fiscal strategies—key considerations for multinational corporations and investors. Key topics include: Election outlooks in the U.S., Brazil, and Ethiopia and their impact on government stability Fiscal and monetary policy risks in Brazil and the U.S. Geopolitical and security risks in Ethiopia, including implications for regional stability and foreign investment Trade negotiations and the strategic role of commodities in Brazil's foreign policy Key indicators to monitor ahead of major elections for early risk detection More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content: Geopolitical Risk Brief: April 2026 Russia-Ukraine War: Three Conflict Development Pathways in the Next 12 Months Click here to subscribe to our Geopolitical and Economic Risk Monthly newsletter For S&P Global subscribers (login required): Global Executive Summary: Conflict-related economic fallout to continue Middle East war Currency outlooks Credits: Host: Kristen Hallam Guests: John Raines, Rafael Amiel, Jordan Anderson Produced By: Debbie Taylor, Kristen Hallam Edited By: Marz Marcello Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun