Hartnett: Small Biz Strife

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit vblgoldfix.substack.comHousekeeping: Good Afternoon. Hartnett’s Weekly report is presented 3 ways: 1) Video walk-through with analytical comments transcribed, 2) Hartnett’s main points broken out below, 3) and original format at bottom. Enjoy. “Wall St has now stopped BoJ hiking"-Michael HartnettTL;DR* Wall Street stopped BOJ hikes* Small Biz Getting killed* Hard landing Technical Levels * Remain as sell the 1st rate cut * Whatever cut is, it likely wont be enoughExtended Comments: Start 28:31 Why Powell May not cut at all, or not until it is too lateWall Street wants the Fed to Cut more now- Citi, JPM, GS, and now BOAZoltan identifying The “Unaccord’ between Yellen and PowellYellen’s Stealth QE undermines Powell’s HikesPowell now possibly ignoring Economic indicators surrounding Housing because of services inflationThe Yield Curve recently warned a rate cut would be inflationary- The BOJ is really just an error account for the Fed* FootnotesHartnett’s Flow Show: The Prime of Strife Scores on the Doors: crypto 17.2%, gold 16.9%, stocks 8.9%, oil 6.3%, HY bonds 4.7%, commodities 3.3%, cash 3.2%, IG bonds 1.9%, US$ 1.9%, govt bonds -0.8% YTD. Zeitgeist: "The Bank will continue to raise the policy interest rate going forward", BoJ July 31st; "The Bank will not raise its policy rates when markets unstable”, BoJ Aug 7th; painfully (biggest FX carry-trade loss since Mar'20 - Chart 3) Wall St has now stopped BoJ hiking; Wall St's Aug/Sept goal now appears to be bossing the Fed into big rate cuts.