Has Belichick Gone Soft? Tom Brady Voted No. 1, Fantasy Football Draft Advice | Breaking Brad Ep. 15

[TRANSCRIPT]Welcome to Breaking Brad, cooking up only the hottest of takes for you this evening.The New England Patriots dropped their third and final preseason game on Friday, 23-6, in an embarrassing defeat that leaves a sour taste in everyone’s mouth less than two weeks out from their regular season opener, on the road against the Miami Dolphins.It’s hard to know where to start. Jarrett Stidham, New England’s former third string QB, shredded the Patriots starting defense. On the offensive side of the ball, Mac Jones threw an interception that dropped right in the middle of a five-man, Raiders stand-up meeting. Running back/receiver Ty Montgomery, who’s had a tremendous camp, went down with an ankle injury and may be out for a period of time. He didn’t practice on Monday.Even the special teams are struggling. Mind you, these were the Patriots starters going up against mostly second and third string Raiders players.So, what may be the cause of this Patriots team having their single worst training camp and preseason in more than two decades?As crazy as it sounds, I think a lot of that blame has to fall on Bill Belichick, who destroyed any semblance of continuity from the way New England has done things over these last 20+ years.Mac Jones fit in the Tom Brady/Josh McDaniels offense like a glove. But now in his second season, he has to learn a new offense, which his o-line doesn’t seem to be picking up, thus hampering the protection that’s been so consistent in New England.Belichick named a former defensive coordinator, basically the de facto offensive coordinator, Matt Patricia, who has no experience in this area, much less implementing a Kyle Shanahan-esque stretch offense that’s never been run in New England before.Moreover, Patricia’s official title is offensive line coach, so he’s not giving as much attention to them as a traditional o-line coach normally would. And this Patriots team, with all the criticism, actually has a fairly talented roster. They’re deep at receiver, with DeVante Parker, Jakobi Meyers, Nelson Agholor, Kendrick Bourne, and Tyquan Thornton, one of the fastest receivers we’ve seen in New England in a long time. They got two stud tight ends in Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith. Lil’Jordan Humphrey may be contributing there as well.Perhaps the best safety group in the NFL with Devin McCourty, Kyle Dugger, Adrian Phillips and Jabrill Peppers added to that.Speed on the defensive line and linebacker positions that weren’t there last season. And plenty of options to go to at the cornerback position, depending on the many receiver combinations the Pats might face this year.And let’s not forget Mac Jones, who showed up to camp in incredible shape, and many are expecting to make a Joe Burrow-style leap in Year 2.So, what the hell is going on?My worry is, Bill Belichick is pulling a Gregg Popovich and going soft. He’s become much friendlier with players since Brady left (becoming a player’s coach if you will), more practices in shells (not pads), and more days off than we’ve ever had. Remember no days off?He also changed the offense to incorporate the zone run, which is supposed to be an easier concept to learn for new players (although that certainly hasn’t been the case so far).It’s understandable there’s going to be some growing pains, particularly after losing Josh McDaniels, one of the best offensive coordinators in football. But last season was a bridge year - and the Pats played well all things considered. They made it to the postseason with a rookie quarterback, the offense really wasn’t the issue by the end of the season, it was the speed and athleticism of the defense. They seem to have upgraded there.This is the year where Pats fans should be going, “Alright, it’s time to compete with the Bills, Chiefs and Bengals.” Instead we’re going, “Will this team finish 7-10?”One of the big complaints from Tom Brady and Gronk following their time in New England was the Patriots are such a difficult organization to play for. There is a lot expected of each player, and not a lot of time for rest, recovery or fun. It seems Belichick really took that to heart.But that’s what made the Patriots so great, being the most disciplined organization in the NFL. Now, it looks like all that discipline is on the coaches (poor Matt Patricia is doing like four different jobs), and not falling on the players like it used to. Meanwhile, in Tampa, Tom Brady is upset about the lack of coaching and discipline in the Bucs organization.The grass isn’t always greener on the other side, and if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Maybe the Pats can mix in some of these zone run concepts, bootlegs and play actions we see in LA and San Francisco. But don’t veer away from what’s worked well for so long - a strong power running game and an Erhardt-Perkins/west coast-style offense.This could be a very good team if they don’t blow the whole thing up.Alright, speaking of Tom Brady . . .Every year, each player in the NFL gets an opportunity to cast their vote to identify the best players in the league heading into that season.And look, I’m as big a Tom Brady fan as they come. I’m not one of those rare disgruntled Patriots fans - I think Brady’s the GOAT, no question about that. I’ve always admired his work ethic and competitive spirit, especially because he’s not really that athletic of an individual. He’s never had the strongest arm, although the velocity has improved since his early 20s. He’s slow as molasses, but managed to develop some of the best footwork in the pocket we’ve ever seen. He’s accurate, knows what’s coming before the ball is snapped.But at 45 years old, in a league with Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, don’t forget Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Donald - I would be very hesitant to say he’s the best player in the NFL right now. But that’s exactly how the players in the league feel.Mind you, this was not a survey asking for the best overall player, throughout their career. Brady would certainly top that list. This is the best player, right now, entering the 2022-23 NFL season.According to the players, Tom Brady is No. 1, Aaron Donald at No. 2, Aaron Rodgers at No. 3, then Cooper Kupp, Jonathan Taylor (who I like, great for fantasy, but wouldn’t put at No. 5 just yet), T.J. Watt, Davante Adams, Patrick Mahomes at No. 8, Jalen Ramsey, then Travis Kelce at No. 10. So, Josh Allen didn’t even make the top ten. In fact, he landed at No. 13, behind Myles Garrett and Derrick Henry for some reason.While I would probably put Brady in the top five, maybe not No. 1, there is certainly a case to be made he’s still the best. His numbers last year: first in touchdowns, first in passing yards, first in first downs, and his offense led the league in points and touchdowns.The only reason Aaron Rodgers beat him in the MVP race last season, Rodgers threw fewer picks and closed the season better than Brady.Would you still put Brady at No.1? Let me know in the comments.Okay, so we are in the last week before Week 1 of the NFL season officially begins, which means the vast majority of fantasy football drafts will take place between now and Labor Day. And fantasy football is frustrating for many. You put in so much time prepping, and then end up with a completely different team than you expected. Or maybe you’re impressed with the players you have on paper, but those players lay the occasional goose egg far too often.For those fantasy football players, this video is for you. I have five valuable pieces of advice that should prevent you from banging your head on the coffee table by Week 6.My first piece of advice: Do Not Draft Josh Allen.“But Brad, Josh Allen is the best fantasy quarterback in the NFL. That’s stupid advice.” No it’s not (unless you’re able to get him in the 5th round).But I guarantee, somebody in your league is going to use their first or second pick on Josh Allen. Don’t be that guy who uses a first or second round pick on a quarterback.Drafting Allen early could mean missing out on a top running back or wide receiver that just won’t be available in the second or third round. There will be an opportunity to draft Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Justin Herbert, Kyler Murray or Joe Burrow later. We’re not talking about a major downgrade by passing on Allen.And that leads me to my second piece of advice: Draft Value at Positions Where There Isn’t a Ton.The first that comes to mind: tight end. There’s one reliable, consistent tight end in all of the NFL, and that’s Travis Kelce. Sure, many think Mark Andrews from the Ravens is comparable. But when you look at their overall body of work, is there any tight end you should trust more than Travis Kelce? No!Don’t be afraid to use a first round pick on Kelce, or even Andrews. Because if you wait too long to draft a tight end, and Kyle Pitts is off the board, then George Kittle, then Darren Waller (who really wasn’t that reliable last season), there’s a short list of about four or five players who can contribute at tight end on a consistent basis. Then it’s, you know, Hunter Henry. Either a touchdown or a goose egg. Don’t put yourself in that position. Draft Kelce if you can.Consistency is vital, that’s why for my third piece of advice: Look for Players with Low Variance (or High Consistency).There are websites that measure this. FantasyPros.com has a table that ranks all draftable players by their week-to-week consistency. They call it quality starts percentage.Just to give you an example, players like Dalvin Cook, Joe Mixon and Nick Chubb all rank in the top 10 of most draft boards. But those players provide quality starts roughly 50% of the time. Meanwhile, Austin Ekeler is about 88% of the time. Najee Harris from Pittsburgh, 76% of the time. Draft those guys instead.I guarantee, nobody in your league is drafting players by consistency. They’re just looking at the ESPN or Yahoo ranking and looking at the name that pops.Now, this may not help you win every week. But you will average more points, and that will translate to wins and a better playoff position.Another piece of advice: Don’t Be Afraid to Make Aggressive Moves After Week 1.Your team is not set in stone. There is so much parity in the NFL, and you can find out a lot of information on rookies and dual threat players in Week 1. If you have a league with free agent cash instead of a waiver wire, don’t be afraid to spend it early.Some things to watch for:* Rookie running backs getting a majority of their team’s snaps* Players that suddenly play two positions, i.e. Cordarrelle Patterson and Deebo Samuel last season.* Mid-level receivers getting a disproportionate number of targets, particularly on teams that don’t have a deep receiving corps. I’m looking at you Baltimore.* And quarterbacks with vastly improved offensive lines. I mean think about what Joe Burrow did last year with falling jenga pieces in front of him. Imagine what he can do now that he has some protection.Don’t fall in love with the players you drafted. Cut some of those guys after Week 1 if you see any of these surprises crop up.And finally, my last piece of advice: Be Strategic Drafting a Kicker.This is not as important as the others, but it can come in handy. Conventional wisdom is to draft a kicker on a team with a good offense. More chances down the field means more field goals, right? Not exactly.What if that team typically gets in the end zone, like the Kansas City Chiefs? What if they go for it on fourth down a lot, like the Chargers?If you try to guess who were the top three kickers in fantasy football season, you’d probably put Justin Tucker somewhere in there. After all, he’s the best kicker in the NFL.But he wasn’t in the top three. The top three kickers were Daniel Carlson from the Raiders, Nick Folk from the Patriots, and Chris Boswell from the Steelers.The key here is to draft a kicker on a team that has a solid offense, but not a great one. Last season, the Raiders, Patriots and Steelers, none were top-tier offenses, but they certainly weren’t bottom-tier either. They were moving the chains, but often settling for field goals on red zone appearances.That’s what to watch out for. Don’t worry so much about the kicker. These are professionals who typically make their field goals. That’s why it’s such a big story when a kicker misses multiple kicks. Worry about the team they play for. That may give you a 5-10 point edge.Alright, that’s it, but before I go, I wanted to note this story that just broke.According to Adam Schefter, Jimmy Garoppolo will remain with the San Francisco 49ers this season. He restructured his deal to contain a no-trade and no-tag clause, meaning he will become a free agent before next season.Jimmy G will be the backup behind Trey Lance, and many expected Garoppolo to be traded before the season starts. Looks like that’s not the case. Not exactly a show of confidence for San Francisco’s young quarterback, Lance. We’ll see how long Jimmy G stays on the bench.I’m a believer that when healthy (and that’s a big when), Jimmy Garoppolo is one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL. He nearly made it back to the Super Bowl last year, and has shown he can lead a complex Kyle Shanahan offense.You know, I was expecting the Cleveland Browns to make a run at him. 11 games with Jacoby Brissett is rough, but I guess Jimmy G is staying with the Niners. Perhaps the greatest backup in the history of football.Okay, that’s it for the show. If you like what you’ve heard, be sure to subscribe, like and hit the notification bell. Will be back tomorrow. Until then, this is Breaking Brad. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit patscast.substack.com