Has Israel Lost Its Strategic Compass? Ksenia Svetlova on Iran, Gaza and the Middle East

For nearly forty minutes, I sat down with former Knesset Member, journalist, and Middle East expert Ksenia Svetlova for one of the most candid discussions we’ve had on Tel Aviv Diary. Drawing on decades of reporting across the Arab world and years in Israeli politics, Ksenia offers a sobering assessment of where Israel stands after the wars in Gaza and Iran—and why she believes the country faces one of the most significant strategic challenges in its history.We examine how the recent conflict with Iran has reshaped the regional balance, why Tehran may view the outcome very differently than many Israelis do, and how emerging cooperation between countries such as Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Pakistan and others is changing the Middle East. Ksenia argues that Israel’s diplomatic standing has deteriorated sharply and discusses why the opportunity for normalization with Saudi Arabia may have slipped away. We also explore the widespread misconceptions within Israel about regional politics and why so many of the assumptions made before both October 7 and the Iran war proved disastrously wrong.The second half of our conversation turns to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. We discuss whether any realistic path exists after October 7, the future of the Palestinian Authority, why Hamas can never be a negotiating partner, and whether gradual confidence-building measures could eventually create conditions for separation rather than perpetual conflict. Ksenia reflects on lessons from Egypt, the Oslo years, and decades of Israeli decision-making, while we debate whether Israel’s political leadership—and its opposition—failed to confront strategic realities before it was too late.Whether you agree with every conclusion or not, this conversation challenges many assumptions that dominate public debate today. It is a discussion about history, diplomacy, security, and the difficult choices Israel will face long after the current headlines fade. If you’re looking for a thoughtful, in-depth conversation rather than political slogans, I hope you’ll find this episode worthwhile. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit marcschulman.substack.com/subscribe