Has Kim Jong Un really made a strategic decision to go to war? – Ep. 327

Some three weeks ago, longtime North Korea watchers Robert Carlin and Siegfried Hecker set off alarm bells from Washington to Seoul when they asserted that “like his grandfather in 1950, Kim Jong Un has made a strategic decision to go to war.” Their warnings in an article for the website 38 North have received widespread coverage in both ROK and U.S. media, and prompted even South Koreans accustomed to ignoring the DPRK to consider whether a repeat of the Korean War is on the horizon. But not everyone is convinced. Thomas Schäfer, the former German ambassador to the DPRK, argued against their thesis in a rebuttal, and the U.S. government has assessed that there are currently no signs of preparations for an imminent attack. This week, Carlin and Hecker join the NK News podcast to explain exactly why they see Pyongyang’s recent war rhetoric as more than just empty bluster. They discuss why the DPRK has shifted away from seeking to normalize ties with the U.S., their views on what exactly Kim Jong Un is planning and how they’ve handled the overwhelming response to their article. Then, NK News CEO Chad O’Carroll shares his thoughts on Carlin and Hecker’s argument and how North Korea could test the credibility of U.S. deterrence. Robert Carlin is a nonresident fellow at the Stimson Center and a visiting scholar at Stanford University’s Center for International Security and Cooperation. From both in and out of government, he has been following North Korea since 1974 and has made over 30 trips there. Siegfried Hecker is a distinguished professor of practice at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies of the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey. He is director emeritus of the Los Alamos National Laboratory, where he served as director from 1986 to 1997 and as senior fellow until July 2005. About the podcast: The North Korea News Podcast is a weekly podcast hosted by Jacco Zwetsloot (@JaccoZed) exclusively for NK News, covering all things DPRK — from news to extended interviews with leading experts and analysts in the field, along with insight from our very own journalists.