Hawkish talk, headlines and more tariffs

This week on Bondcast, the team examines how fading optimism over a potential US-Iran agreement and renewed tariff discussions are influencing rates markets. With major central bank meetings approaching, the discussion also turns to the outlook for the European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of England (BoE), and Federal Reserve. Key topics: * ECB rhetoric has become more hawkish, but policymakers are unlikely to commit to a fixed hiking path.* The BoE remains cautious, with centrist policymakers showing little urgency to raise rates.* Fed officials continue to balance inflation and growth risks more carefully than markets may be assuming.* New US tariff proposals could create future headline risk despite limited immediate economic impact.* French political risk is gradually moving back onto investors’ radar ahead of 2027.* Fiscal concerns remain a major structural challenge for the UK, particularly due to high debt servicing costs. Contributors: Imogen Bachra (host), Head of Economics and Markets StrategyOriane Parmentier, European Rates StrategistIan VanderHorn, Economics and Market Strategy at NatWest Markets This episode was recorded on 4 June 2026. Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy. For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html