The Recession the Unemployment Rate Can't See | Eric Pachman on the Data Beneath the Jobs Report

Eric Pachman of Data 4 The People joins Matt Zeigler to explain why headline employment and inflation data may be giving investors an incomplete picture of the U.S. economy. They examine falling labor force participation, Medicaid-funded healthcare jobs, wage quality, oil and diesel shortages, consumer financial stress and how AI can make public data more useful.Eric Pachman on Xhttps://x.com/EricPachmanData 4 The Peoplehttps://www.data4thepeople.com/Main topics coveredWhy the establishment survey and household survey can tell very different labor market storiesWhy unemployment may miss weakening labor force participation and disappearing working-age AmericansThe decline in participation among older workers and menHow healthcare and Medicaid-funded care have become the engine of U.S. job growthWhy Medicaid cuts could create a major employment and consumer spending riskWhat occupational wage data reveals about the quality of new jobs and home healthcare payThe differences between CPI, PCE and core inflation and why the standard measures can be misleadingHow crude oil grades, refinery design and 3-2-1 crack spreads shape energy pricesWhy falling diesel inventories could spread inflation through transportation, food and retailWhat the single-income stress test reveals about household fragility, poverty and multiple-job holdersHow Data 4 The People is using AI to build public-interest data research toolsTimestamps00:00 Intro04:41 Why the unemployment rate can miss a labor crisis11:24 Healthcare jobs, aging America and the Medicaid care economy18:44 The Wage Ledger and the hidden quality of U.S. job growth24:18 Why inflation is moving higher30:48 Why every equity investor needs to understand oil36:00 Crack spreads and the refinery mismatch problem44:05 Why diesel is the inflation risk that matters most48:34 The single-income stress test and consumer fragility54:42 Data 4 The People's nonprofit mission59:00 Building an AI research assistant for public data01:03:37 Where to follow Eric and Data 4 The PeopleLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.