Heaven Hill on how to thrive in a downturn

From 1970 to 1995, US per capita spirits consumption fell by nearly 50%. Yet some players, like Heaven Hill, emerged stronger and more diversified than when the downturn began. In this episode, Heaven Hill Chairman Max Shapira and President Kate Latts reflect on the company's 90‑year journey, offering first-person accounts of beverage alcohol's last major downturn, the subsequent revival in demand, and what lessons, if any, apply to the current marketplace.  In this episode we discuss:  The drivers behind the collapse of alcohol sales in the 1970s and 1980s and the segments (wine, vodka, etc.) that actually grew during the downturn. The consolidation of the US bourbon industry, with the number of Kentucky distillers falling from 70 to 10 in just two decades. The drivers of the current market and whether they share any similarities with the 1980s. The outlook for the current US bourbon supply, and the risk of a shortage in three to five years. The moderated impact of oversupply on the sales performance of well-established brands v. startups.   Notable time stamps: 02:20 – History of Heaven Hill and building a diversified portfolio 09:21 – What caused alcohol sales to collapse from 1970 to 1995 12:39 – Parallels between the 1980s and today 19:17 – Drivers behind the current decline in alcohol demand and what is going on with millennials  32:13 – Why downturns and oversupply favor strong brands and what will happen to craft distillers 54:32 – Chaos in the distributor tier 01:02:28 – The post‑pandemic socialization reset   Have a question, qualm, or story to tell? Reach out via email: [email protected] Sign up to access our written research: RaboResearch sign-up   Note: The content and opinions presented within this podcast are not intended as investment advice, and the opinions rendered are that of the individuals and not Rabobank or its affiliates and should not be considered a solicitation or offer to sell or provide services. Disclaimer: Please refer to our global RaboResearch disclaimer at https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417027/disclaimer for information about the scope and limitations of the material published on the podcast.