He's Advised Companies on Decisions for 20 Years. His AI Warning Is Blunt - Ernesto Weissmann

Most leaders think they're good at making decisions. The data says almost none of us are — and we can't even explain how we do it. In this episode of The Free Lunch, Eddie Ross sits down with Ernesto Weissmann, founding partner and Managing Partner for Europe at Tandem, one of the world's few consulting firms built entirely around decision-making, decision analysis and decision intelligence.A former decision theory professor at the University of Buenos Aires, Ernesto has spent his whole career on one deceptively simple question: if decision-making determines our results, our companies and even our happiness, why does no one teach us how to do it well? We get into why companies are really just "factories that make decisions," why you should judge the process and never the outcome, and how the smartest organizations are already handing parts of that process over to AI.A masterclass for any founder or leader who wants to stop deciding on gut feel and start deciding on purpose.Chapters00:00 – Cold open: is AI a friend or a foe?04:30 – Welcome back: meet Ernesto & Tandem06:50 – From decision theory to quitting his job to build a firm10:30 – Why so many people make poor decisions11:40 – Quality vs. quantity: the case for decision agility13:00 – Decision architecture: why most companies aren't built to decide well17:17 – Designing organizations by capability18:00 – Decisions are power: change, politics & the "better-than-average" bias21:00 – Judge the process, not the outcome22:33 – High-impact decisions (and what oil & gas taught Tandem)28:25 – The hidden cost of the decisions you don't make30:19 – Why behavior follows objectives and compensation31:17 – The "everything's green" culture problem32:51 – Quick, good, or cheap — and the trap of paralysis by analysis39:59 – The one-page brief: a lesson from Saatchi & Saatchi41:48 – The Decision Leaders series: how CEOs, musicians and athletes decide44:58 – From gripping the wheel to letting the machine drive46:32 – Automated, augmented & assisted decisions (Unilever & Waze)50:11 – Will AI quietly erode the power of the boss?53:10 – Game theory when every competitor uses AI55:43 – The human element machines can't replicate56:53 – 1,000 AI agents and the future of scenario planning1:01:08 – Ernesto's advice for founders in the growth phase1:03:06 – "If you're not using AI, you're leaving money on the table"1:04:00 – Friend or foe? Ernesto's final verdictAbout the guestErnesto Weissmann is a founding partner of Tandem, a strategic consulting firm specializing in decision management that has worked with leading companies across Europe, the Americas, Africa and Asia. Argentine-born and now based in Madrid, he's a former professor of decision theory at the University of Buenos Aires.About The Free LunchThe Free Lunch is a podcast about leadership and the people who do it well — hosted by Eddie Ross. New conversations with founders, operators and experts who've learned how to lead.🔔 Subscribe for new episodes👍 Like if this one made you think💬 What's the hardest decision you're facing right now? Tell us in the comments.#TheFreeLunch #DecisionMaking #Leadership #AI #ErnestoWeissmann #Tandem #BusinessStrategy