Highlights: 2022 Housing Report from JCHS

Housing costs have surged over the last year or so, but a new report shows that demand is still strong due to several factors, and that pricing pressures may ease up in the months ahead. The Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University just released its annual State of the Nation's Housing report, and I'd like to share some of the highlights. Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review. Home Price Appreciation Nationwide home price appreciation hit 20.6% in March of this year. That's up from 20% in August of last year. The data shows record-high appreciation in 67 of the top 100 markets, and the rest were also up by at least 9%. Harvard researchers say higher home prices are keeping about 4 million renters from buying their own homes, and that increases demand for rental housing. (1) Those who can qualify for a home often can't find one in their price range. They are also competing with investors who have increased their share of moderately-priced homes. Single-Family Investor Sales Researchers say investors have moved aggressively into the single-family rental market and account for 28% of the SFR homes sold in the first quarter of this year. That's up from 19% in the first quarter of last year. From 2017 to 2019, the average was about 17%. Investors have been focusing on markets with rapid price appreciation. In Atlanta, the investor share of home sales was 41% in the fourth quarter of last year. In San Jose, California, it was 38%. In Phoenix, 36%, and in Los Angeles, 34%. Demand & Rent Growth As demand rose for rentals, so did rents. The report shows they were up 12% nationally in the first quarter. Rent growth was more than 20% in several metros. The hottest markets were in the South and West, but some coastal areas saw big gains because rents had fallen so much during the pandemic. Single-family rents have gone up faster than apartments mostly due to demand. That's the result of remote workers who want more space at home. CoreLogic shows that year-over-year rents were up 15% nationally as of March. The biggest gains were in Miami at 39% and Cape Coral at 28%, but Phoenix and San Diego were also mentioned with rent growth of 18 and 17% respectively. Strong Household Formation Strong household formation is contributing to increased demand and higher housing costs. From Q1 of 2020 to Q1 of 2022, new households were forming at an annual rate of 1.6 million. Harvard researchers had predicted an increase of 1.2 million annually from 2018 through 2028, so the current rate of increase is well above the expected amount. Much of the growth is due to millennials making up for previous delays in household formation. Government stimulus during the pandemic and the economic rebound last year also gave many young adults the means to pay for housing. But researchers are also predicting a new slowdown in household formation as the money situation tightens to control inflation. New household formation has raised the homeownership rate .1% to 65.4%. Residential Construction The pace of residential construction is finally picking up. It has been trailing behind household growth for many years, but in 2021, single-family starts hit 1.1 million. That's the first time it's been above 1 million in 13 years. Multifamily starts are also up. They hit 470,000 which is a 30-year high. The big issue for builders has been all the supply chain disruptions. In April of this year, 1.64 million homes were under construction with delayed completion dates due to the supply chain hold-ups. The labor shortage and local land use regulations have also made it difficult for builders. Affordability Crisis & Outlook The affordability crisis has continued to get worse for both homeowners and renters. In 2020, 30% of households were cost-burdened, meaning they were paying more than 30% of their income on housing. 14% were severely burdened. The figures are worse for renters. 46% were hard-pressed to pay their rent, and 24% were severely burdened. And now, inflation is making things worse. Although low-income families will continue to struggle with housing costs in the near term, the report says the outlook for overall housing demand is mostly positive. A lot depends on whether the Federal Reserve can control inflation, but Harvard researchers say that demographic shifts are favorable, unemployment is low, and wage growth is strong – which all contribute to a positive outlook. You'll find a link to the full report in the show notes for this episode at newsforinvestors.com. Please remember to hit the subscribe button, and leave a review! Thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke. Links: 1. https://www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/across-nation-rising-prices-and-increased-interest-rates-limit-access-homeownership