Hit the Cash Button: VWAP Signals and Insider Buying Clusters

Welcome back to StocktwitsTV. Michele Steele is joined by Garrett Baldwin, economist and author behind the Substack Me and the Money Printer and Postcards from the Edge of the World, to explain what happens when global liquidity tightens. Garrett anchors the discussion to the Four Horsemen framework: central bank liquidity, collateral multipliers and volatility, the US dollar, and oil prices tightening together. His message is simple: dominoes don’t have to fall fast, they just have to fall in the same direction, and liquidity sits upstream of everything. They walk through the chain reaction: oil impacts bonds, bonds impact inflation expectations, that affects collateral quality in repo and refinancing markets, and tighter credit ultimately pulls capital out of equities. Michele asks what gets hit first, and Garrett points to areas that rely on refinancing and credit access, including insurance exposure tied to private credit and lingering commercial real estate issues. Garrett also shares what his screeners are showing as relative strength, then revisits private credit, why he still rates it a seven, and why these problems can start quietly before they cascade. To close, he gives traders two key tools: a VWAP standard deviation setup for short-term reversion trades, and a bigger-picture bottom signal that shows up repeatedly in history: policy accommodation paired with widespread insider buying happening all at once. Disclaimer: All opinions expressed on this show are solely the opinions of the hosts’ and guests’ and do not reflect the opinions of Stocktwits, Inc. or its affiliates. The hosts are not SEC or FINRA registered advisors or professionals. The content of this show is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Please consult with your financial advisor before making any investment decision. Read the full terms & conditions here: https://stocktwits.com/about/legal/terms/ Chapters 00:00 - Insider buying cluster 00:17 - Garrett joins show 00:35 - Four Horsemen tighten 01:21 - Dominoes fall together 02:15 - Momentum turns negative 02:54 - Liquidity drives markets 03:27 - Credit leaves equities 04:06 - War and oil shock 04:31 - What breaks first 04:55 - Private credit exposure 05:13 - CRE refinancing risk 05:32 - Regional bank stress 05:59 - Screeners show strength 06:41 - Private credit is seven 07:29 - Why it’s misunderstood 08:16 - Quiet then cascade 09:35 - Refinancing and crowding out 10:26 - Cash button signals 11:07 - VWAP deviation setup 11:56 - What bottoms markets 12:56 - Policy plus insiders 14:30 - Everyone buying together 15:09 - Contrarian shot