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I'm your host, Michael Graham. With us to update us on the chaos on Capitol Hill is Michael Warren. Michael, what the heck happened today? Well, it was just a humdrum, normal day on Capitol Hill.
I don't know what you're talking about. Here's the short story of what happened, what was supposed to happen, and what happened instead. Today was supposed to be a vote in the Republican Conference for who the conference would nominate as speaker. Kevin McCarthy, the House Majority Leader, was expected to win that.
The question was, would he win enough support among the Republican Conference to go to the floor in front of the full house to win that outright majority? Everybody's, that was kind of the question going in. That was my question to my sources on Capitol Hill. And then all of a sudden, shortly after the meeting started at noon, the reports came out that McCarthy didn't just not have the votes to win on the floor.
He was dropping out entirely from the speaker's race. And really through everything in the chaos, I was in touch with sources, including sources in McCarthy's office, and the question I kept asking is, what's going on? The answer I kept getting is, nobody knows. So the dust has started to settle a little bit, and we're learning a little more about what happened, why McCarthy decided to drop out, and a little bit more about where Republicans go from here.
And you've done some reporting on how we got here. So before we get to the future, why did Kevin McCarthy just drop out as opposed to having a vote and then, you know, because I mean, you count heads, you either add votes or you lose votes. There's no reason to drop out before the first vote is cast. Do we know why that happened?
Well, we had this group, this so-called Freedom Caucus, about 30 or 40 members, not all of the members were necessarily on with this particular plan. But the Freedom Caucus had endorsed one of its own members, Daniel Webster, and was going to get about 30 or 40 votes in the conference. And there was no guarantee that even if that Daniel Webster guy had lost, that those votes would have then gone to McCarthy on the floor. And denying McCarthy an outright majority on the floor was a real possibility.
And to start off his speakership or even to risk losing on the floor to, remember the Democrats put up by not getting that full majority, was really a prospect that was too risky, I think, in the end from McCarthy. He said, he told me that at the end of the day, maybe I could have won, but the risk of going to the floor, and even if he had pulled that out and won with 218 votes, the bare majority that he would have needed, he would have been in a really weak position to actually get anything done as speaker. And so in a way, he sort of saw the writing on the wall, and got out before really he and the entire conference could be too embarrassed. Some of the conventional wisdom is that this all goes back to his incredibly inept, or inept, whichever one of you want to use comments about the Benghazi Committee.
Do you think that if that moment had not occurred, that Kevin McCarthy would have dropped out today? It's hard to say. I asked him about that. He called it a stumble.
It was pretty much a full-blown gaffe for doing that. He thinks that was the moment when he started considering dropping out. He got a lot of noise from members of his own conference. And that was the first moment when he thought, maybe I shouldn't be doing this.
He called the rest of the process, which again, it's really only about a week and a half process, an uphill battle from there. So that was definitely the start of it, but that rump group of very conservative members of the House were always there. So maybe the Benghazi Gaff kind of gave them a little more fuel, gave them a little more sort of inspiration to keep pushing against McCarthy. But it certainly did not help him.
That Benghazi Gaff, and I think it really did kind of start things, was the beginning of the end of the McCarthy's leadership. For people looking from the outside who don't follow politics every day, the fact that they don't know who Daniel Webster, they think, yeah, he was great back in the 1800s. Jason Schapitz, they still can't pronounce his name for that typical not-that-attentive voter. There really was only one choice, and that was going to be this McCarthy guy that they'd heard about and didn't know much about.
We are for those folks at zero. Is that where the Republican caucus is? In other words, a completely clean slate where anyone possibly could be the Speaker of the House? I think it's more the exact opposite where no one can really be the Speaker of the House.
This is the problem that I think Republicans are facing. You're hearing a lot of talk about Paul Ryan as sort of the compromise candidate here. I know from sources that John Boehner and Kevin McCarthy are both trying to make appeals to Paul Ryan who said pretty much immediately that he again was not interested in running for Speaker. But even Paul Ryan has some problems, I think, winning.
Look, the ultimate problem here for anybody who wants to be Speaker in this conference of this House of Representatives, that's currently constituted, is you need support from a Republican conference that is divided on so many different issues. It's not just the sort of grassroots versus establishment dichotomy. It's issues like immigration and the way that spending cliffs that we've been dealing with, the way to move forward on that. It's going to be really difficult, I think, for Republicans to find somebody who can sort of thread that needle.
It doesn't look like a good process. I mean, Kevin McCarthy was the obvious choice. He's very popular with Republicans in the conference and he couldn't get it done. I don't see how this works itself out anytime soon.
Well, OK, then let's ask a kind of small government concern. A question. Do you have to have a Speaker? I mean, it's really necessary.
It would work around this. Well, once Donald Trump, President Donald Trump, abolishes the House of Representatives, then of course there will be no need. I mean, look, it is a constitutional office. It's second in line to the presidency right behind the Vice President.
You do need a Speaker. There are people talking about getting someone from outside the House. You don't have to be an elected member of the House of Representatives to be Speaker of the House. But again, who wants that job?
I mean, it's a thankless task and it's a very important task. The House cannot do any business without a Speaker. So John Boehner is going to stay on as Speaker. He said pretty much once he found out at this afternoon's meeting, he'll stay on as long as it takes for the Republicans to get a 218 at least majority and find a replacement.
But so we could be with Speaker Boehner for a lot longer than he or anybody else thought. So let me ask you this, then. Are there any names that have popped up, even in the... I know it's been only a few hours since Representative McCarthy dropped up.
Any names popped up that caught your ear that you thought, oh, there's an interesting choice. I see how they could be the right person. Well, besides Paul Ryan, Tom Price, who was at that point running for majority leader, of course, Kevin McCarthy is now going to stay as majority leader. So this is effective races down ballot in the leadership role.
So Tom Price is a potential person who could fit that role. And in interest of full disclosure, he is in fact my Congressman. Well, there you go. Then you would have a direct line to power.
I'm going to have the best paved cul-de-sac in America, I can already feel it. But you know, the list of potential people, I talked to a member of Congress and he said, you know, there's about five or six people who I could see. I said, who? And he really couldn't name them.
So I don't know, I think people are really just kind of still trying to figure out what this was like. Nobody knew this was happening going into going into this. Not even Kevin McCarthy's staff, but I think for a few minutes before the meeting started. John Boehner didn't know none of the other House members knew that McCarthy was going to drop out of the race.
And so I really think everybody is just trying to get their sea legs and figure out what the hell is going on here. Well, then let me ask one last question. That is, who are the people to watch when it comes to figuring out who the people to watch? In other words, what members of the Congress are going to be the ones who you think will be most influential in turning people's heads?
So hey, look, this would be a choice. This person over here. Well, Jim Jordan is the Ohio congressman who is the chair of that freedom caucus that I mentioned. And he's sort of the ringleader in all this.
But he's not a potential choice for speaker. No, absolutely not. In fact, I talked to a couple members today who, when I floated that idea, they sort of said he had no support. But watch what he says in terms of what is acceptable.
I'm still trying to figure out exactly what the demands are of the freedom caucus. There's some talk about some specific rule changes and other things because I'm kind of sort of minutia of the way the house works that they're looking for. But it does seem, I think I mentioned on Twitter that the freedom caucus is like the dog that caught the car. They've been going after Vayner and now McCarthy.
And now they sort of don't really have a plan. And so I think once they regroup and maybe once we hear something from Jim Jordan in terms of what they're looking for, because they do have control of this and they're sort of a rump group, then maybe we'll have a little more clarity about what is going to happen. Well, that was the infamous Michael Graham last question because as regular listeners of the podcast, there was always another last question after the last question. Why not go pure politics?
That is a female speaker of the house for the sake of having a female face out representing the Republican ideas, reaching outside of the house? As you pointed out, it's completely possible. Why not? I'm just picking an example.
Say a Rick Perry or somebody who is a talented politician who's looking for work. Why not make a pure political play at this point? I mean, look, anything's possible. I think the sort of window of what is possible has opened considerably since in these last couple of weeks.
I haven't heard anything particularly about outsiders, even though that is constitutionally allowed. I have heard some noise about you're asking about names and you're reminding me, Kathy McMorris Rogers, who's the conference chair of the Republican conference, her name has been bended about a bit. And I'm hearing that there's a movement to at least convince her to set up a summit or retreat for the Republican conference in the next weekend or so to kind of regroup. And if she's leading that, I wouldn't be surprised to hear if there's a movement then to have her be the face and possibly be the next speaker of the house.
But again, that's a long shot, just like really any of these others until we have a better idea of who's running and who wants to do the job. Well, so I'm perfectly clear, I am not seeking the position. But if called upon to serve, I would step up and I've already made my choice. I don't understand why the Republicans are fighting on this.
Hire Kevin Spacey to play Francis Underwood as the Speaker of the House, because that's clearly the kind of thinking the smarter than the other team thinking that the Republican Party needs right now. Speaker Francis Underwood as portrayed by Kevin Spacey. No, if you keep calling those those house switchboards, you're gonna get through eventually with your ideas. Just persistence is key for the for your ideas.
Michael Warren, Weekly Standard. Thanks for the update. Literally as the news happens here on the Weekly Standard podcast. We appreciate your time.
Thanks Michael. You've been listening to the Weekly Standard podcast. Please be sure to check Weekly Standard dot com regularly for podcast updates on your host, Michael Graham.