Housing Heads Into a Harder Phase in 2026 | Monthly Market Live Update

In this month's live update, we explain why 2026 is likely to be a tougher year for housing before conditions start to improve. Sales remain near multi-decade lows as trade tensions, slowing growth, and rising geopolitical risks weigh heavily on consumer confidence. When activity stays this weak, the market becomes more fragile. Sellers who can wait are choosing to hold back, while households that need to move face a much thinner pool of buyers. At the same time, power of sales are becoming more common as mortgage payments reset and household finances tighten. More owners are falling behind, and with demand already weak, distressed sellers have less ability to quietly exit the market. That pushes more forced listings onto the MLS and adds downward pressure on prices. We also discuss the fallout from the Department of Justice's criminal charges against Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and the growing uncertainty around the Fed's independence. These political shocks matter for Canada. If confidence in the U.S. central bank weakens, it can lead to higher bond yields, more volatile currencies, and ultimately higher mortgage rates, adding another headwind for housing. Set-up a meeting with John Pasalis and his agents at Realosophy to discuss your own real estate questions privately: https://www.movesmartly.com/meetjohn Sign up for our email list to be alerted to the next online market update to join our YouTube session live chat and ask your own Qs: https://www.movesmartly.com/monthly-public-webinar Today's show links:  John's latest articles on the Toronto area real estate market are on realosophy.com  https://www.movesmartly.com/articles/author/john-pasalis Dave Larock's latest weekly blog post on mortgage rates on MoveSmartly.com: https://www.movesmartly.com/articles/author/david-larock Contact Us: John Pasalis, President and Broker, Realosophy Realty, Toronto | Email: [email protected] | X-Twitter: @JohnPasalis David Larock, Mortgage Broker and Analyst and Realtor | Email: [email protected] | X-Twitter: @Dave_at_IMP About This Show: The Move Smartly show is hosted by John Pasalis, President and Broker of Realosophy Realty. MoveSmartly.com and its media channels on YouTube and various podcast platforms are powered by Realosophy Realty in Toronto, Canada. You can also watch this and every episode on our MoveSmartly YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/movesmartly If you enjoy our show and find it useful, please subscribe and leave us a positive rating on whatever platform you are watching or listening to us from — thank you!!