How Business Inventories Are Signaling a Slowdown

In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into the latest business inventories data, which hit $2.71 trillion in March 2026. They explain why inventories rising faster than sales is historically a leading recession signal, especially with capacity utilisation stuck at 76.1 percent. Using the recent JOLTS job openings surge and the yield curve steepening as context, they discuss whether the economy is headed for a mid-cycle slowdown or something more serious. Lucas walks through the inventory-to-sales ratio and why it matters for GDP revisions, while Luna pushes back on whether this time is different given supply-chain normalization. If you want to understand one of the most underrated leading indicators in macro data, this episode is for you. #BusinessInventories #InventoryToSalesRatio #LeadingRecessionSignal #CapacityUtilisation #JOLTS #YieldCurve #GDP #SupplyChain #MacroData #EconomicIndicators #FedPolicy #MidCycleSlowdown #InventoryCycle #LucasAndLuna #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #RecessionWatch Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo