Economic Indicators with Fexingo: GDP, CPI, PMI, and Reading the Macro Data

We cut through the noise of September 2026’s conflicting economic signals. With real GDP growth slowing to one point five percent while job openings tick up, we explore why the labor market feels stronger than the broader economy suggests. We examine how core CPI remaining sticky at three point three percent complicates the Fed’s next move and what this divergence means for investors trying to read the room. #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Macroeconomics #GDPData #CPIInflation #LaborMarket #FederalReserve #InterestRates #EconomicIndicators #InvestingStrategy #InflationTrends #JobOpenings #PCEIndex #EconomicRecovery #MonetaryPolicy #FinancialMarkets #EconomicAnalysis #LucasAndLuna Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

We look at the strange disconnect between July’s cooling GDP growth and August’s surprisingly tight labor market. With nonfarm payrolls barely shifting and job openings ticking up, we explore why reading the macro data feels like solving a puzzle with missing pieces. We break down the specific signals in the ADP report, the JOLTS index, and capacity utilization to figure out what is actually driving the economy right now. #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Macroeconomics #GDPData #LaborMarket #JOLTSReport #ADPPayrolls #CapacityUtilization #EconomicIndicators #InflationTrends #FedPolicy #ManufacturingData #ServiceSector #EconomicGrowth #InterestRates #InvestingStrategy #LucasAndLuna #Econ101 Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

We dig into the latest Purchasing Managers Index readings and why they often tell a different story than headline GDP. With manufacturing activity contracting for the second month in China while US capacity utilization ticks up, we explore how supply chain managers are making decisions that don't show up in standard growth models. Lucas breaks down the divergence between factory orders and actual production, while Luna challenges whether these surveys really capture the modern service-heavy economy. We look at specific inventory-to-sales ratios and what they signal about the next quarter. #PMI #ManufacturingData #SupplyChainManagement #GlobalTrade #EconomicIndicators #ChinaEconomy #USGDP #CapacityUtilization #BusinessCycle #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicsDaily #MarketAnalysis #IndustrialProduction #InventoryLevels #LucasAndLuna #MacroEconomics #InvestorEducation Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

India's economy grew 7.8 percent in its fiscal first quarter, blowing past forecasts while China's factory activity contracts and the US settles into sub-2 percent growth. In this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack what this divergence means for global investors, why India's growth is more than a China replacement, and how the latest US data—from jobless claims to capacity utilization—fits into a world where the IMF sees three-speed growth. They discuss the structural drivers behind India's expansion, the risks of a widening split, and what it could mean for emerging market allocations. A concrete look at the numbers that are redrawing the global economic map. #IndiaEconomy #GDPGrowth #ChinaSlowdown #GlobalEconomy #EmergingMarkets #USData #JoblessClaims #CapacityUtilization #Economics #Investing #MacroData #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #IndiaGDP #ChinaFactoryPMI #GlobalDivergence #IMFOutlook #EconomicGrowth Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The recovery is real, but its shape is up for debate. In this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into the latest data — real GDP growth slowing to 1.5 percent, core PCE inflation stuck at 3.3 percent, and the unemployment rate dipping to 4.1 percent — to explain why economists are split between K-shaped, C-shaped, and even E-shaped theories. They explore how different sectors are recovering at different speeds, why the labor market and consumer spending tell conflicting stories, and what that means for the Fed's next move. If you've ever wondered why experts can't agree on the economy, this episode shows you how to read the signals yourself. #Economics #RecoveryShape #GDP #Inflation #FedPolicy #LaborMarket #ConsumerSpending #KShapedRecovery #CShapedRecovery #EShapedRecovery #CorePCE #UnemploymentRate #EconomicIndicators #MacroData #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Podcast #Finance Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The economy is growing, but not everyone feels it. Lucas and Luna dig into why economists are split on whether we're in a K-shaped, C-shaped, or just plain uneven recovery. They look at the latest GDP print of 1.5 percent annualized growth, the sticky core PCE at 3.3 percent, and what the divergence between job openings and payrolls tells us about the labor market. They also unpack why the Fed's newest hawkish voices, like Hammack and Warsh, are pushing for rate hikes even as inflation cools slightly. If you've wondered why the headlines say one thing and your wallet says another, this episode maps the disconnect with real data and a little healthy skepticism. #KShapedRecovery #EconomicIndicators #GDPGrowth #CorePCE #FederalReserve #Inflation #LaborMarket #JobOpenings #Payrolls #WarshFed #HammackFed #EconomistsDisagree #MacroData #USEconomy #BusinessPodcast #FexingoBusiness #Economics #PodcastEpisode Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The Fed's latest communication strategy is getting a lot of attention, but the real story is how it's changing market expectations. In this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack the shift toward a 'quieter' central bank, what it means for inflation targeting, and why the bond market is paying close attention. They break down the recent core PCE reading, the Fed's hawkish tone, and the surprising resilience of the labor market. With the ten-year Treasury yield at 4.73 percent and inflation still above target, the hosts explore whether the Fed's new approach will actually work. Tune in for a clear-eyed look at the Fed's evolving playbook and its implications for investors and everyday consumers. #FederalReserve #Inflation #MonetaryPolicy #CentralBanking #CorePCE #BondMarket #TreasuryYields #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economy #FedPolicy #InterestRates #HawkishFed #MarketExpectations #QuietFed #PolicyShift #MacroData Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, core PCE, is running at 3.3 percent annually—hotter than the headline CPI. In episode 172, Lucas and Luna explain why core PCE matters more to the Fed, how it differs from CPI, and why the 2.32 percent ten-year breakeven rate suggests markets expect the Fed to tolerate above-target inflation for longer. They also unpack the implications of a 1.5 percent real GDP growth rate and a 4.1 percent unemployment rate, and what that means for the upcoming FOMC decision. With the Fed's Hammack signaling a hawkish bias, this episode cuts through the data noise to focus on the number that actually guides monetary policy. #CorePCE #InflationData #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #EconomicIndicators #CPI #GDPGrowth #UnemploymentRate #BreakevenRate #Hammack #FOMC #MacroData #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MarketAnalysis #RateDecision #StickyInflation Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into the widening gap between the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, core PCE, and the more widely reported CPI. With the latest data showing core PCE running at 3.3 percent annually while core CPI sits at 2.6 percent, they explain the structural reasons behind the divergence — from how healthcare costs are measured to the weight of used cars and shelter. They also unpack what this means for the Fed's next moves, why some officials are wary of the signal, and how markets are pricing the debate. If you've ever wondered why the 'official' inflation number sometimes doesn't match what you see in your wallet, this episode gives you the tools to read the data like a pro. #CorePCE #CPI #Inflation #FederalReserve #EconomicIndicators #MacroData #Business #Finance #Economics #InterestRates #MonetaryPolicy #Housing #Healthcare #DataLiteracy #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #LucasAndLuna #EconomicDebate Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode of Economic Indicators, Lucas and Luna unpack a strange twist in the bond market: the Treasury is considering using its cash pile — the Treasury General Account, or TGA — to fund bond buybacks. With the ten-year Treasury yield at 4.64 percent and the curve staying stubbornly flat, investors are split. Some, like Stanley Druckenmiller, doubt the strategy will work; others see it as a clever way to manage liquidity. The numbers tell a story: the TGA could hold nearly a trillion dollars, and the Fed's balance sheet is shrinking. We dig into how buybacks could tighten the market, what it means for the repo market, and why the timing matters with the Fed expected to pause in September. If you've ever wondered how the plumbing of the Treasury market actually works, this episode is for you. #TreasuryBuybacks #TreasuryGeneralAccount #BondMarket #Liquidity #FederalReserve #StanleyDruckenmiller #ScottBessent #RepoMarket #TreasuryYields #QuantitativeTightening #EconomicIndicators #Economics #MacroEconomics #Finance #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MarketStructure #DebtManagement Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

On this episode of Economic Indicators, Lucas and Luna unpack why bond yields are climbing even as inflation data cools. They dig into the ten-year Treasury yield's rise to 4.7 percent, the inflation breakeven at 2.34 percent, and what the market is really saying about the Fed's next move. With core CPI still sticky at 336.8 and the latest jobs report showing a cooling labor market, they explore the disconnect between soft-landing hopes and hard-nosed bond math. Lucas explains the mechanics of breakevens and term premia, while Luna pushes back on whether the bond vigilantes are back. They also touch on the Treasury General Account strategy and how buybacks might reshape the curve. If you've ever wondered why bond yields matter beyond the headlines, this episode gives you a clear framework without the jargon. No ads, just analysis. #BondMarket #Inflation #TreasuryYields #FederalReserve #EconomicIndicators #MacroEconomics #CPI #CoreCPI #BreakevenInflation #TenYearTreasury #MonetaryPolicy #BondBuybacks #TreasuryGeneralAccount #LaborMarket #JobsData #Markets #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The U.S. national debt just crossed $40 trillion, doubling in a decade. Treasury Secretary Bessent is trying something new: regular buybacks of older, less liquid Treasury bonds, hoping to calm a nervous market. But a $4 billion operation against a $40 trillion pile is a drop in the bucket. Lucas and Luna dig into how buybacks work, why the market is skeptical, and what else Bessent could try—from issuing more short-term debt to nudging foreign buyers. They also unpack the latest data: real GDP growth slowed to 1.5 percent, but core inflation is still sticky. Can buybacks actually lower yields, or are they a cosmetic fix? Tune in for a clear-eyed look at the mechanics and limits of Treasury market intervention. #TreasuryBuybacks #USDebt #Bessent #BondMarket #EconomicIndicators #FiscalPolicy #Inflation #GDP #CoreCPI #TreasuryYields #MarketLiquidity #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #Finance #MacroData #FederalReserve #Investing Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's plan to buy back US government debt has been making headlines, but what does it actually mean for the economy? In this episode, Lucas and Luna break down the mechanics of Treasury buybacks, why they're being deployed now, and how they connect to the broader bond market. They explore the tension between calming markets and fueling inflation worries, using recent data on the 10-year Treasury yield and the breakeven inflation rate to ground the discussion. If you've ever wondered why the government would buy its own debt, or what it signals about fiscal policy, this episode offers a clear, practical guide. Tune in to understand the numbers behind the headlines and what they might mean for your portfolio. #TreasuryBuybacks #ScottBessent #BondMarket #USTreasury #InflationExpectations #FiscalPolicy #Economics #MacroData #GDP #CPI #PMI #InterestRates #FederalReserve #Investing #Markets #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicIndicators Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode of Economic Indicators, Lucas and Luna unpack the latest data showing US government debt crossing $40 trillion, more than doubling in a decade. With Treasury Secretary Bessent hinting that the deficit may have peaked and announcing a potential $4 billion buyback operation, they explore what these numbers mean for everyday Americans. From the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.74% to the recent CPI cooling, they connect the dots between fiscal policy, bond markets, and inflation expectations. Lucas explains why the debt-to-GDP ratio matters more than the raw number, and Luna challenges the assumption that deficits are always bad. They also discuss how the Federal Reserve's next move might be influenced by Washington's borrowing plans. If you've ever wondered why the national debt keeps climbing and whether it's sustainable, this episode offers a clear, grounded perspective. #USDebt #40Trillion #TreasuryYields #InflationCooling #FiscalPolicy #Deficit #Bessent #BondMarket #EconomicIndicators #GDP #CPI #FederalReserve #InterestRates #Investing #Macroeconomics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MoneyTalk Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The U.S. national debt just crossed $40 trillion, but Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says the deficit may have peaked. In this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into the gap between the scary headline number and the actual annual shortfall. They explain why the deficit is shrinking even as the debt grows, what falling interest rates and a cooling labor market have to do with it, and why the next few quarters could surprise people who are bracing for a fiscal crisis. You'll learn the difference between the stock of debt and the flow of borrowing, how a strong dollar and cheaper oil are quietly helping, and why the Fed's next moves matter more than the debt ceiling theatrics. If you've ever confused national debt with the deficit, this one's for you. #USDebt #BudgetDeficit #ScottBessent #Treasury #FiscalPolicy #NationalDebt #InterestRates #FedPolicy #Economics #MacroData #GDP #Inflation #LaborMarket #TreasuryBuybacks #GovernmentSpending #Business #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode of Economic Indicators, Lucas and Luna dig into the surprising rise in business inventories—up to $2.74 trillion in June—and why that buildup is flashing warning signs for the economy. They explain how inventory cycles have historically amplified recessions, why the current glut is concentrated in goods rather than services, and what it means for GDP growth, manufacturing output, and the Fed's path on interest rates. With capacity utilization at just 76.3 percent and industrial production barely growing, they connect the dots between warehouses full of unsold goods, slowing orders, and the risk of a sharper downturn ahead. If you've wondered why the economy feels sluggish despite decent consumer spending, this episode offers a clear, data-driven explanation. Tune in to understand how inventory data can signal stress before the headlines do. #BusinessInventories #InventoryCycle #EconomicIndicators #MacroEconomics #GDPGrowth #Manufacturing #CapacityUtilization #SupplyChain #FederalReserve #InterestRates #RecessionWatch #DataAnalysis #EconomicsPodcast #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroData #InventoryManagement #EconomicOutlook Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

While everyone watches GDP and jobs numbers, Lucas and Luna dig into a quieter gauge that's flashing slightly softer: total business inventories. At 2.74 trillion dollars in June, that's up again after a long stretch of drawdowns. They explain what inventory rebuilding says about corporate confidence, how it feeds into GDP growth, and why this cycle's modest restocking—not a massive surge—suggests businesses are staying cautious. They also unpack why rising inventories can be a headache for GDP math in the short run, and what it might signal for the second half of 2026. With capacity utilization at 76.3 percent and industrial production ticking up, is this the start of a reflation trade or just a blip? Tune in for a focused look at a number most people skip. #BusinessInventories #GDP #InventoryCycle #EconomicIndicators #SupplyChain #CapacityUtilization #IndustrialProduction #Macroeconomics #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Fexingo #LucasAndLuna #EconomicOutlook #InventoryInvestment #GDPComponents #BusinessConfidence #MacroData Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

On this episode of Economic Indicators, Lucas and Luna explain why the JOLTS report matters more than the headline unemployment rate right now. With job openings down to 7.36 million in June while payrolls barely moved, the quiet loosening in the labor market is the real story. They walk through the quits rate, the hires rate, and what the Beveridge curve is telling us about the path to a soft landing. Plus, they break down why the Fed is likely watching this data more closely than the unemployment print. If you've ever wondered why economists care about job openings at all, this episode gives you the framework. Also, a quick note on how listener support keeps the show going. #JOLTS #LaborMarket #JobOpenings #BeveridgeCurve #QuitsRate #HiringSlowdown #FedPolicy #SoftLanding #EconomicIndicators #Unemployment #Payrolls #DataOverHeadlines #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicsPodcast #MacroData #LaborEconomics #FedWatch Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode of Economic Indicators, Lucas and Luna dig into a puzzle that's been confusing markets since spring: why are long-term Treasury yields climbing even as inflation data — from CPI to the PCE deflator — show price pressures cooling? They start with the numbers: the ten-year yield has drifted up to around 4.7 percent while core PCE inflation has eased to 2.6 percent. Lucas explains the role of term premiums, supply concerns from a widening budget deficit, and the Fed's balance-sheet runoff. Luna brings up the surprising resilience of the labor market — unemployment at 4.1 percent with job openings still above 7 million — and how that complicates the Fed's path. They also discuss what the 10-year breakeven at 2.27 percent implies about market expectations. If you've wondered why your bond portfolio is hurting while inflation headlines look good, this episode gives you the framework to understand it. #BondYields #TreasuryMarket #InflationData #CPI #CorePCE #FederalReserve #TermPremium #BudgetDeficit #LaborMarket #EconomicIndicators #MacroEconomics #Investing #Markets #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #Finance #YieldCurve Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode of Economic Indicators, Lucas and Luna dive into an unexpected economic signal: the record-setting plunge in lettuce prices in August 2026, driven by a cyclospora outbreak that spooked consumers. They explore how a food-safety scare can ripple through the produce aisle, showing up in CPI data even as core inflation stays sticky. The hosts connect this micro story to broader macro trends—why wholesale prices stayed flat in July, how the CPI's food component can diverge from the core, and what that means for the Fed's inflation fight. They also touch on the budget deficit surge and the labor market's mixed signals, all while keeping the discussion grounded in real data. If you've ever wondered how a single headline about lettuce can shape the economic narrative, this episode offers a fresh perspective on the data behind the headlines. #LettucePrices #Cyclospora #CPI #Inflation #FoodPrices #EconomicIndicators #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroData #WholesalePrices #BudgetDeficit #LaborMarket #FedWatch #ConsumerSpending #SupplyChain #ProduceIndustry #DataViz Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The July jobs report showed a loss of 23,000 payrolls, yet the unemployment rate fell to 4.1 percent. Lucas and Luna dig into this puzzle—and what it says about the broader economy. They look at the drop in job openings, the rise in initial claims, and why the labor market might be cooler than the headline numbers suggest. The hosts also explore how this ties to slower GDP growth and sticky core inflation, and what it could mean for the Federal Reserve's next move. With the S&P 500 near 7,800 and small caps outperforming, they ask whether investors are betting on a soft landing or just ignoring the cracks. This episode is a data-driven look at one of the biggest economic questions of the summer: is the labor market really as strong as it looks? #LaborMarket #JobsReport #UnemploymentRate #NonfarmPayrolls #JobOpenings #InitialClaims #FederalReserve #SoftLanding #GDPGrowth #CoreInflation #EconomicIndicators #MacroData #Economics #BusinessPodcast #FexingoBusiness #MarketWatch #USJobs #CoolingLaborMarket Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna unpack the July CPI report, which showed headline inflation cooling to 2.6 percent while core prices remained sticky at 3.2 percent. They explore why shelter costs are still pushing core inflation higher, how the Fed is likely to interpret this data ahead of its September meeting, and what it means for your wallet. With the ten-year Treasury yield at 4.64 percent and the unemployment rate at 4.1 percent, the hosts discuss the delicate balance the Fed faces as it considers its next move. They also examine the surprising drop in wholesale prices and what that signals for future consumer price changes. This episode cuts through the noise to give you a clear picture of where inflation stands and what to watch next. #CPI #Inflation #CoreCPI #FederalReserve #InterestRates #Economy #Economics #ShelterCosts #WholesalePrices #PPI #FedPause #TreasuryYields #Unemployment #JobsReport #EconomicIndicators #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroData Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Lucas and Luna dive into the July CPI report, which showed consumer prices rising just 0.1 percent for an annual rate of 3.4 percent. They explore why underlying inflation remains sticky, with core CPI at 3.6 percent, and what this means for the Federal Reserve's next move. The conversation touches on the surprising divergence between cooling goods prices and persistent services inflation, and how AI infrastructure spending is complicating the Fed's fight. With unemployment low and jobless claims near record lows, the hosts debate whether the economy is truly at a turning point. They also unpack the latest GDP data, showing growth slowing to 1.5 percent while inflation cools, and what that signals for markets and policy. Packed with specific numbers and clear analysis, this episode offers a nuanced look at the current economic landscape. #CPI #Inflation #FederalReserve #EconomicData #CoreCPI #GDP #Unemployment #JoblessClaims #AIIndustry #MonetaryPolicy #Economics #BusinessPodcast #FexingoBusiness #MacroData #PriceIndex #RateHikes #EconomicIndicators #MarketAnalysis Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The July jobs report showed a 23,000 payroll loss, yet the unemployment rate fell to 4.1 percent and initial jobless claims are near 199,000. How can hiring freeze while layoffs stay historically scarce? In this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack the puzzle: businesses are hoarding workers after two years of labor shortages, holding onto staff even as demand cools. They look at the JOLTS data showing openings down to 7.36 million, wage growth stuck near 3.6 percent, and what the divergence between payrolls and claims means for the Fed's next move. With the August CPI report due Wednesday, the hosts explain why the labor market's resilience might be the key to whether inflation keeps cooling. If you've ever wondered how a jobless-claims record can coexist with a negative payroll print, this episode cuts through the noise with the numbers that matter. #JoblessClaims #Payrolls #LaborMarket #JulyJobsReport #UnemploymentRate #JOLTS #FederalReserve #Inflation #CPI #WageGrowth #LaborHoarding #Economics #MacroData #EconomicIndicators #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Podcast #Business Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The July jobs report delivered a genuine puzzle: payrolls fell by 23,000, yet the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1 percent. Lucas and Luna dig into the details — from the ADP private-sector estimate of just 44,000 added workers to the 158.9 million total nonfarm payrolls — and explain how the household survey and the establishment survey can tell different stories. They also look at what this means for the Federal Reserve's next move, especially with core PCE still running at 2.6 percent and the ten-year Treasury yield climbing to 4.7 percent. If you've ever wondered how a headline number can be negative while the labor market still looks tight, this episode unpacks the mechanics. Plus, a quick note on how listener support keeps the show ad-free. #JobsReport #Payrolls #UnemploymentRate #LaborMarket #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #CorePCE #TreasuryYields #EconomicData #MacroEconomics #ADP #NonfarmPayrolls #HouseholdSurvey #EstablishmentSurvey #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicIndicators Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The July jobs report showed a loss of 23,000 jobs, the first negative print in years, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1 percent. Lucas and Luna unpack the paradox: why did payrolls shrink yet unemployment drop? They dig into the household survey versus the establishment survey, the divergence in hiring trends, and what it signals for the Fed's next move. With real GDP growth slowing to 1.5 percent and core PCE still sticky, the hosts connect the dots between a cooling labor market, inflation, and the yield curve's stubborn refusal to predict recession. A must-listen for anyone trying to read the macro tea leaves. #JobsReport #NonfarmPayrolls #UnemploymentRate #LaborMarket #Inflation #CorePCE #GDP #FederalReserve #YieldCurve #EconomicIndicators #MacroData #JulyJobs #PayrollsDecline #HiringSlowdown #RecessionWatch #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode of Economic Indicators, Lucas and Luna dig into a striking anomaly: the yield curve has been inverted for years, yet the economy keeps humming along. With the ten-year Treasury at 4.66 percent and the two-year at 4.36 percent, the curve is still inverted, but the economy isn't behaving like a recession is imminent. Lucas explains why this time might be different—how global demand for long-term bonds, a post-pandemic term premium reset, and the Fed's balance sheet have scrambled the signal. Luna brings data on jobless claims and consumer spending to show why the curve's predictive power has faded. They explore what the curve is actually telling us now: not a recession signal, but a sign of structural shifts in how the economy borrows and saves. A must-listen for anyone trying to read the macro tea leaves in August 2026. #YieldCurve #InvertedCurve #EconomicIndicators #RecessionSignal #TreasuryYields #TenYearTreasury #TwoYearTreasury #MacroData #FederalReserve #JoblessClaims #ConsumerSpending #TermPremium #BondMarket #Economics #Business #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicForecast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The U.S. economy grew at just 1.5 percent in the second quarter of 2026, down from 2.1 percent in the first. Meanwhile, CPI has fallen for three straight months and core PCE remains sticky. Lucas and Luna unpack the divergence: why real growth is slowing even as inflation cools, and what it means for the Fed's next move. They look at the July jobs report, which showed a loss of 23,000 jobs, and the latest JOLTS data showing job openings at 7.4 million. They also examine the role of inventories, which rose to $2.7 trillion, and whether the economy is heading for a soft landing or a stall. If you've ever wondered why the GDP deflator and core PCE tell different stories, or why jobless claims are low while hiring is weak, this episode breaks it down with clear examples and a dose of healthy skepticism. #GDP #RealGDP #Inflation #CPIData #CorePCE #FederalReserve #JobsReport #JOLTS #EconomicGrowth #SoftLanding #Economics #MacroData #BusinessPodcast #FexingoBusiness #EconomicIndicators #LaborMarket #FedPolicy #DataAnalysis Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Core inflation is cooling slower than headline CPI, and the latest data shows why. In this episode, Lucas and Luna break down the gap between the 332.6 CPI reading and the 336.1 core, using July's soft ADP report and the 10-year breakeven at 2.22 percent to illustrate. They explain how shelter costs, used cars, and services keep core sticky, why the Federal Reserve under Warsh cares more about core than headline, and what it means for your wallet and hiring. Along the way, they dig into the disconnect between soft survey data and solid hard data, and why a 76.1 percent capacity utilization rate matters. You'll come away understanding why core CPI is the number to watch, and how the Fed's inflation fight is evolving in 2026. #CoreCPI #Inflation #FederalReserve #EconomicIndicators #PCE #ADP #JobMarket #CapacityUtilization #BreakevenRate #ShelterCosts #CPI #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #FedWatch #InflationData #MacroData #Episode151 Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this milestone episode 150 of Economic Indicators, Lucas and Luna dive into the gap between real and nominal GDP. With real GDP growth cooling to 1.5 percent while nominal GDP climbs above $32 trillion, what does this divergence tell us about the economy's health? They explore how the GDP deflator—the bridge between the two—reveals underlying inflation pressures, and why this matters for your investments and the Fed's next move. Using the latest data, they break down why real growth feels sluggish even as nominal numbers look strong, and what that means for earnings, interest rates, and your wallet. If you've ever wondered why economists obsess over 'real' versus 'nominal' figures, this episode makes it clear, with practical takeaways for navigating the current market. #RealGDP #NominalGDP #GDPDeflator #EconomicIndicators #Inflation #FederalReserve #InterestRates #MacroData #Economics #BusinessPodcast #FexingoBusiness #Investing #MarketTrends #EconomicGrowth #CPI #PCE #MonetaryPolicy #Podcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode of Economic Indicators, Lucas and Luna dig into the puzzle of the moment: headline CPI is cooling, but core PCE is still running warm. With June CPI down to 332.6 and core PCE up to 130.3, the two indicators are telling different stories about inflation. Lucas explains why the Fed leans on core PCE, how housing and services keep it sticky, and what the latest jobless claims and GDP slowdown mean for the policy path. If you've ever wondered why headline inflation and the Fed's preferred measure can diverge, this episode gives you the concrete numbers and the reasoning behind them. #CorePCE #CPI #Inflation #FederalReserve #FedPolicy #EconomicIndicators #GDP #JoblessClaims #Housing #ServicesInflation #MonetaryPolicy #MacroEconomics #Economics #Business #Finance #Economy #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The latest CPI print shows headline inflation cooling, but core inflation remains stubbornly high. Lucas and Luna dig into the divergence, looking at shelter costs, services inflation, and the Fed's favorite gauge, core PCE, which is still running at 3.3 percent. They discuss why the CPI and PCE tell different stories, what it means for the Fed's next moves, and why the gap between goods and services inflation is widening. Along the way, they touch on the manufacturing survey showing inflation worries worse than pandemic era, and the political pressure on the Fed. If you've ever wondered why the inflation number you hear on the news doesn't match your own grocery bill, this episode has the answer. #Inflation #Economics #FederalReserve #CPI #CoreInflation #ConsumerPrices #ShelterCosts #ServicesInflation #CorePCE #MonetaryPolicy #EconomicIndicators #FedWatch #Manufacturing #InflationExpectations #MacroData #Business #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Lucas and Luna dig into a puzzle that's been nagging macro watchers: real GDP is growing at just 1.5 percent annualized, yet core inflation measures are sending conflicting signals. They unpack the GDP deflator's rise, the surprising cooling in CPI, and why the Fed's preferred core PCE gauge remains stubbornly sticky. With breakevens ticking up and jobless claims jumping, they explore what this divergence means for the Fed's next move and for your portfolio. If you've ever wondered why inflation headlines feel contradictory, this episode gives you the framework to make sense of it all. #GDPDeflator #CorePCE #Inflation #FederalReserve #EconomicData #Macro #CPI #BreakevenRates #JobsReport #MonetaryPolicy #InterestRates #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #FinancialLiteracy #MarketAnalysis #Economy2026 #DataDriven Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode, Lucas and Luna explore why real GDP growth slowed to 1.5 percent in the second quarter of 2026, even as nominal GDP expanded and inflation cooled. They break down the role of the GDP deflator, the divergence between real and nominal growth, and what this means for business investment, consumer spending, and Federal Reserve policy. With core inflation still above the Fed's target at 3.3 percent, they discuss whether the economy is heading for a soft landing or a stagflationary pause. Tune in for a clear, data-driven look at the numbers behind the headlines. #GDPGrowth #RealGDP #NominalGDP #GDPDeflator #Inflation #CoreCPI #FederalReserve #MacroData #Economics #SoftLanding #Stagflation #EconomicIndicators #BusinessInvestment #ConsumerSpending #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicAnalysis #MacroEconomics Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna examine the puzzling divergence between slowing GDP growth and stubborn core inflation. With Q2 real GDP growth dipping to 1.5 percent but core PCE edging up, they explore why the economy is cooling while prices refuse to cooperate. They look at the latest core CPI flatness, the rise in the 10-year breakeven inflation rate, and what the divided Fed signals for policy. Plus, they discuss the role of services costs and productivity. A must-listen for anyone trying to read the macro tea leaves without the spin. #GDPGrowth #CoreInflation #CorePCE #FederalReserve #DividedFed #BreakevenInflation #Productivity #EconomicIndicators #MacroData #InterestRates #Inflation #GrowthSlowdown #ServicesInflation #LucasAndLuna #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #FedPolicy Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

While CPI has cooled, the GDP deflator is rising faster than most realize. In this episode, Lucas and Luna break down why the deflator — which covers all domestically produced goods and services — is running hot, and what that means for Fed policy. With real GDP growth accelerating to 2.1% and nominal GDP climbing, the deflator is hovering around 3.5% annualized, well above headline CPI. They explain the composition differences, the role of import prices, and why the Fed might care more about this measure than you think. Plus, a listener Q&A on how to track the deflator using BEA data. All in under 12 minutes. #Economics #GDPDeflator #Inflation #CPI #FederalReserve #RealGDP #NominalGDP #BreakevenInflation #EconomicIndicators #MonetaryPolicy #BusinessCycle #DataAnalysis #LucasAndLuna #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Macroeconomics #GDPGrowth #PriceLevel Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

GDP growth just accelerated to 2.1 percent annualized, up from 0.5 percent late last year. Meanwhile, consumer prices are falling and unemployment is ticking lower. Lucas and Luna dig into the unusual combination of faster growth and cooling inflation—what it signals for corporate margins, Fed rate decisions, and whether the 'soft landing' narrative actually holds. They reference the latest nominal GDP figure of $31.86 trillion, the drop in CPI to 332.6, and the unemployment rate slipping to 4.2 percent. The episode explores how this divergence challenges traditional macro models, with implications for investors and policymakers. Plus, a candid moment about how the podcast stays ad-free. #GDP #Inflation #CPI #UnemploymentRate #FederalReserve #EconomicGrowth #SoftLanding #NominalGDP #RealGDP #MonetaryPolicy #Lab orMarket #MacroData #EconomicIndicators #FexingoEconomics #BusinessPodcast #Economics #FexingoBusiness Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Episode 142 of Economic Indicators with Fexingo. With the latest CPI reading at 332.6 (down from 333.98) and core PCE still sticky at 130.1, we dig into a surprising divergence: import prices from China just hit their highest level since 2008, and oil-driven inflation fears prompted Singapore to tighten monetary policy. Lucas and Luna explore what rising input costs mean for consumer prices, margins, and the Fed's next move. Plus, the story behind businesses rebuilding inventories and why the 10-year breakeven inflation rate matters. If you've seen headline CPI fall but gas prices climb, this episode explains the disconnect. #CPI #CorePCE #ImportPrices #ChinaTrade #OilPrices #Singapore #MonetaryPolicy #Inflation #FederalReserve #BusinessInventories #10YearBreakeven #EconomicIndicators #MacroData #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicPolicy #SupplyChain Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna unpack a striking disconnect in the latest data: initial jobless claims dropped to 187,000 — a multi-decade low — while capacity utilization remains stuck at 76.1%, essentially flat for months. With unemployment falling to 4.2% and real GDP growth accelerating to 2.1% annualized, the labor market is red-hot, but factories aren't ramping up. What explains this gap? We explore structural shifts toward services, productivity gains, and the impact of trade policy. Plus, we look at what this means for the Fed's inflation outlook, especially with core PCE still rising. A data-driven conversation for anyone trying to read the macro picture in mid-2026. #EconomicIndicators #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #JoblessClaims #Unemployment #CapacityUtilization #LaborMarket #GDPGrowth #MacroData #FederalReserve #Inflation #CorePCE #CPI #FactoryOutput #ServiceEconomy #Productivity #BusinessCycle #TradePolicy Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode of Economic Indicators, Lucas and Luna dive into a puzzle plaguing markets in mid-2026: the CPI is falling, but the PCE price index is still climbing. With the Fed watching Core PCE closely, the hosts break down why the two inflation gauges are diverging, what it means for interest rates, and how the breakeven inflation rate adds another layer. They reference the latest data—CPI at 332.6, Core PCE inching up to 130.1, and the 10-year breakeven slipping to 2.21%—and connect it to the surprise Singapore tightening and the global inflation backdrop. A concise, data-driven look at why the Fed might stay cautious even as headline inflation cools. #CPI #PCE #CorePCE #Inflation #BreakevenInflation #FederalReserve #InterestRates #MonetaryPolicy #SingaporeMonetaryPolicy #GlobalInflation #EconomicIndicators #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Podcast #Economics #DataDriven #Macro #July2026 Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

After months of destocking, total business inventories rose by $8 billion in May 2026. Lucas and Luna break down what this shift means for GDP growth, the labor market, and why the yield curve's recession signal might be wrong. With the unemployment rate at 4.2% and jobless claims at 187,000, is the inventory rebuild the first sign of sustained expansion? They also discuss the divergence between falling CPI and rising core PCE, and what the Fed is likely watching. #BusinessInventories #InventoryRestocking #GDPGrowth #EconomicIndicators #FedPolicy #InvertedYieldCurve #JoblessClaims #CorePCE #CPI #SupplyChain #IndustrialProduction #CapacityUtilization #MacroData #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #LucasAndLuna #Mid2026Economy Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In episode 138, Lucas and Luna unpack a puzzling disconnect in the latest economic data: the Consumer Price Index dropped to 332.6 in June, but the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge, core PCE, continued to edge higher. With real GDP growth accelerating to 2.1% and the labor market still tight at 187,000 jobless claims, they explore why inflation isn't falling uniformly. They break down the compositional differences between CPI and PCE, the role of rising import costs, and what this means for the Fed's next move. Whether you're a macro watcher or just trying to understand why your grocery bill feels different from the headlines, this episode offers a clear, data-driven look at the paradox of cooling consumer prices versus persistent underlying inflation. #CorePCE #CPI #FedPolicy #Inflation #EconomicIndicators #GDPGrowth #JoblessClaims #LaborMarket #ImportPrices #MacroData #Economics #CentralBank #FOMC #ConsumerPrices #ProducerCosts #MarketVolatility #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna break down the surprise jump in import prices in July 2026—costs of goods from China hit their highest since 2008. They explore why this is happening against a backdrop of falling CPI and core inflation, the role of Trump's new tariff plans, and what global monetary tightening (Singapore's surprise move) means for the Fed. With specific data points on the 10-year breakeven rate and jobless claims, they unpack whether this is a temporary blip or a new inflationary wave. A must-listen for anyone tracking the macro outlook mid-2026. #ImportPrices #Inflation #CPI #TradeTariffs #China #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #Singapore #EconomicIndicators #MacroData #GlobalEconomy #BreakevenInflation #JoblessClaims #GDP #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Podcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In June 2026, headline CPI fell to 332.6 from 333.98, a rare decline that grabbed headlines. But the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the PCE price index, actually rose to 131.5 from 130.94, and core PCE ticked up to 130.1. So which number matters more? In this episode, Lucas and Luna break down the structural differences between CPI and PCE—scope, weighting, and formula effects—and explain why the Federal Reserve has anchored its 2% target to core PCE since 2012. They also examine the labor market context, with initial jobless claims dropping to 187,000, and discuss how Fed watchers like Kevin Warsh are parsing the central bank's latest language. If you've ever been confused by conflicting inflation headlines, this episode gives you the framework to read between the numbers. #CPI #PCE #FederalReserve #Inflation #CorePCE #EconomicIndicators #KevinWarsh #LaborMarket #JoblessClaims #MonetaryPolicy #Economics #GDP #ConsumerSpending #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroData #FedWatch #InflationTarget Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Initial jobless claims just dropped to 187,000 — the lowest since early 2025. But hiring remains sluggish, and the quits rate is falling. In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna unpack the paradox: why layoffs are near record lows while employers aren't rushing to add workers. They explore three possible explanations, including labor hoarding, skill mismatches, and a cautious Fed cycle. Live data on JOLTS openings, hourly earnings, and capacity utilization inform the discussion. A must-listen for anyone trying to read the real temperature of the U.S. labor market. #JoblessClaims #LaborMarket #InitialClaims #HiringSlow #QuitsRate #JOLTS #Unemployment #FedPolicy #LaborHoarding #SkillMismatch #HourlyEarnings #CapacityUtilization #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicIndicators #MacroData #UStreasury Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Initial jobless claims have plunged to 187,000, a multi-month low, yet the U.S. economy added only 57,000 jobs in June 2026. Lucas and Luna unpack this labor market paradox: companies are holding onto workers but barely hiring. They explore reasons including pandemic-era labor hoarding, skill mismatches, geographic frictions, and what this means for the Fed's next move. With the unemployment rate ticking down to 4.2% and job openings still elevated at 7.6 million, the hosts question whether this 'low churn, low hiring' equilibrium is sustainable. A must-listen for anyone tracking the economic data behind the soft-landing narrative. #LaborMarket #JoblessClaims #Payrolls #Unemployment #NonfarmPayrolls #JOLTS #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #FederalReserve #SoftLanding #Hiring #Layoffs #LaborHoarding #SkillsMismatch #EconomicIndicators #DataDriven #Podcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Lucas and Luna drill into the 10-year breakeven inflation rate—currently at 2.28 percent—and what it reveals about market expectations for inflation, Fed policy, and economic growth in mid-2026. They explain how this single number is constructed from TIPS versus nominal Treasury yields, why it's been stuck near 2.3 percent despite CPI volatility, and what a flat breakeven signals about investor conviction. The episode walks through the implications for real GDP growth, the Fed's next move, and how listeners can use breakevens as a real-time check on their own inflation assumptions. No forecasts, just a clearer lens on the data. #Inflation #BreakevenInflation #TIPS #TreasuryYields #FedPolicy #RealGDP #CPI #CorePCE #BondMarket #EconomicIndicators #MarketExpectations #MacroData #July2026 #Economics #Finance #InvestmentStrategy #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into two seemingly contradictory data points from July 2026: jobless claims dropped to 187,000, the lowest in months, while the ten-year Treasury yield pushed above 4.7 percent. They explore what falling claims suggest about the labor market's resilience, why bond yields are rising despite cooling inflation, and how investors should interpret the tension between a strong jobs picture and higher borrowing costs. The hosts walk through the mechanics of initial claims as a real-time signal, the bond market's focus on fiscal risk and term premiums, and what this spread means for rate-sensitive sectors. A focused, analyst-level conversation for anyone trying to make sense of the mid-2026 macro landscape. #JoblessClaims #BondYields #TenYearTreasury #InitialClaims #LaborMarket #Inflation #FederalReserve #TermPremium #FiscalPolicy #RateHikes #EconomicData #Macro #Investing #July2026 #Economics #Podcast #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dive into the Federal Reserve's Beige Book and what it reveals about the current economic landscape in mid-2026. They dissect the latest Fed communication — focusing on Governor Kevin Warsh's recent comments and how markets interpret his phrasing. The hosts tie the Beige Book's anecdotal evidence to real data points: the drop in initial jobless claims to 208,000 and the surprising decline in wholesale prices. They explore why the Fed is signaling caution despite a low unemployment rate and sticky core inflation. Listeners get a concrete framework for reading between the lines of central bank language and understanding what it means for rate decisions ahead. No jargon — just clear, actionable insight for anyone tracking the economy. #FederalReserve #BeigeBook #KevinWarsh #MonetaryPolicy #CentralBanking #Inflation #InterestRates #JoblessClaims #WholesalePrices #FedWatch #EconomicIndicators #PolicyLanguage #Economics #Podcast #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MarketAnalysis #RateDecision Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Lucas and Luna dive into the latest capacity utilization data — currently at 76.1 percent, just above recessionary levels — and explain why this often-overlooked metric signals more about industrial slack than GDP or unemployment. They trace how capacity utilization has historically led manufacturing layoffs and capital expenditure cuts, and debate whether the current reading is a warning or noise in a services-dominated economy. With industrial production barely positive and business inventories rising, they ask: is the factory floor flashing red, or is the economy simply rebalancing? A focused look at one indicator that investors and policymakers watch closely. #CapacityUtilization #IndustrialProduction #Manufacturing #EconomicIndicators #RecessionSignals #FedPolicy #IndustrialSlack #BusinessCycle #MacroData #FactoryOutput #CapitalExpenditure #LaborMarket #InventoryCycle #GDPGrowth #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicData Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo