Economic Indicators with Fexingo: GDP, CPI, PMI, and Reading the Macro Data

In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna unpack the recent steepening of the yield curve and what it signals for economic growth as of July 2026. With the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.42% and the 2-year at 4.19%, the spread has widened significantly. They explore why this is happening—stronger growth expectations, sticky core inflation at 3.4%, and the Fed's cautious stance—and what it means for investors and the broader economy. Using the latest data on real GDP growth (2.1% annualized), the rising 10-year breakeven inflation rate (2.24%), and the bond market's pricing of future Fed moves, they cut through the noise to give you a clear read on the macro picture. No jargon, just smart conversation. #YieldCurve #Steepening #BondMarket #TreasuryYields #EconomicGrowth #Inflation #CoreInflation #FedPolicy #GDP #BreakevenRate #RealGDP #MacroData #Investing #FexingoBusiness #Economics #BusinessPodcast #FinancialMarkets #EconomicIndicators Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna unpack the recent steepening of the yield curve and what it signals about the economy's trajectory. With the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.41% and the 2-year at 3.73%, the spread has widened to 68 basis points—a level not seen in over a year. Is this a bullish signal for growth, or a warning that inflation expectations are rising faster than the Fed's comfort zone? The hosts dive into the implications for borrowing costs, banks, and the broader market, using live data from June 30, 2026, and recent core inflation numbers. #YieldCurve #Steepening #TreasuryYields #10YearTreasury #2YearTreasury #Fed #Inflation #CoreCPI #GDPGrowth #EconomicIndicators #LucasAndLuna #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroData #BondMarket #InterestRates #Finance #Economics Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The 10-year breakeven inflation rate has edged up to 2.22 percent as of late June 2026, even as core PCE hits 3.4 percent. In this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack the disconnect: why the bond market's implied inflation expectation remains below the Fed's target despite stubbornly high core readings. They examine what breakevens actually measure — the difference between nominal and inflation-protected Treasury yields — and why the gap between the 2.22 percent breakeven and the 3.4 percent core PCE may signal something about credibility, not complacency. With the 2-year yield at 3.68 and the 10-year at 4.37, the yield curve is steepening again, and the hosts explore whether that steepening is the bond market's way of betting on slower growth ahead. They also consider how capacity utilization at 76.2 percent and industrial production at 102.6 factor into the inflation outlook. No clickbait, no hot takes — just a clear-eyed look at what the breakeven rate is actually saying about the economy in mid-2026. #BreakevenInflationRate #10YearTreasury #CorePCE #InflationExpectations #BondMarket #FederalReserve #YieldCurve #TIPS #NominalYields #RealYield #CapacityUtilization #IndustrialProduction #EconomicIndicators #MacroData #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #LucasAndLuna Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode, Lucas and Luna explore the recent steepening of the yield curve and what it signals for the economy as of late June 2026. With the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.37% and the gap between 10-year and 2-year yields widening to 69 basis points, they unpack what this inversion-unto-steepening pattern historically means for GDP growth, Fed policy, and inflation. They reference the latest core PCE reading of 3.4% and the bond market's surprising tolerance for that number. A focused, data-driven look at one of the most watched bond market signals. #YieldCurve #Steepening #BondMarket #Treasury #Inflation #CorePCE #GDP #Fed #MonetaryPolicy #MacroData #Economics #LucasAndLuna #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicIndicators #InterestRates #TenYearTreasury #TwoYearTreasury Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

With initial jobless claims dropping to 215,000 in late June 2026, Lucas and Luna analyze what this key weekly indicator really says about the health of the labor market. They contrast the low claims with rising unemployment insurance rolls and a 4.3 percent unemployment rate, exploring the concept of 'labor market rotation' where workers are still finding jobs but with longer gaps between them. The episode also looks at how jobless claims data compares to other indicators like JOLTS and nonfarm payrolls, and why the Fed watches these numbers closely for signs of a slowdown. Perfect for listeners who want to go beyond the headlines and understand one of the most real-time economic data points available. #JoblessClaims #LaborMarket #Unemployment #InitialClaims #ContinuingClaims #FedPolicy #EconomicIndicators #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #DataDriven #LaborRotation #MacroData #JobMarket #WeeklyClaims #NonfarmPayrolls #JOLTS #2026Economy Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into a puzzle: the latest CPI print shows headline inflation at 334.0, up 0.5 percent month over month, while the 10-year breakeven inflation rate has actually ticked down to 2.20 percent. They explore what bond investors see that the CPI basket might be missing — from shelter cost lags to the disinflationary weight of global shipping disruptions. Using the Federal Reserve's preferred core PCE gauge, which hit 3.4 percent in May, they explain why markets are pricing a different inflation path than consumer surveys suggest. The hosts also touch on the fragile shipping rebound in the Strait of Hormuz and how one-off geopolitical events can distort near-term price data. A sharp, data-rich look at the gap between realized inflation and market expectations in mid-2026. #Inflation #CPI #BondMarket #BreakevenRate #CorePCE #FederalReserve #ShelterCosts #ShippingDisruption #StraitOfHormuz #TIPS #RealRates #EconomicIndicators #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroData #MarketExpectations #Disinflation Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, core PCE, hit 3.4% in May 2026 — the highest since October 2023. Lucas and Luna dig into why this number matters more than CPI, how it contradicts other inflation signals like the 10-year breakeven rate (now at 2.20%), and what it means for the interest rate outlook. They discuss the components driving the rise — particularly services inflation — and whether the bond market's calm is justified or a warning sign. No hot takes, just a careful read of the data with specific numbers from the June 28, 2026 release. #CorePCE #Inflation #FederalReserve #InterestRates #EconomicData #PCEPriceIndex #BreakevenInflationRate #BondMarket #ServicesInflation #MonetaryPolicy #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroData #GDP #CPI #PMI #EconomicIndicators Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dive into the growing divergence between the PCE price index and CPI. With core PCE hitting 3.4% in May 2026 — the highest since October 2023 — they explore why the Fed’s preferred gauge is running hotter than CPI, what components are driving the gap, and what it means for monetary policy. They break down the role of healthcare costs, portfolio management services, and the methodological differences that make PCE more volatile. If you’ve been confused by conflicting inflation headlines, this episode gives you the framework to understand which number matters and why. #PCE #CPI #Inflation #FederalReserve #CorePCE #CoreCPI #MonetaryPolicy #Economics #EconomicIndicators #LucasAndLuna #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #InflationGap #HealthcareCosts #PortfolioManagement #May2026 #MacroData #Podcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode, Lucas and Luna dive into the growing gap between the Producer Price Index and the Consumer Price Index—and what that divergence signals about corporate margins, inflation pass-through, and the Federal Reserve's next move. With core PCE hitting 3.4% in May 2026—the highest since October 2023—they unpack whether producers are absorbing costs or passing them along, and why the PPI-CPI spread matters more than either number alone. Drawing on recent data and the Fed's preferred gauge, they explore what the pipeline from factory to store shelf reveals about the true inflation picture. If you've been wondering why inflation feels sticky despite cooling producer prices, this episode offers a clear framework. #PPI #CPI #Inflation #ProducerPriceIndex #ConsumerPriceIndex #CorePCE #FederalReserve #CorporateMargins #PassThrough #InflationPipeline #EconomicIndicators #MacroData #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #June2026 #LucasAndLuna #EconShow Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Lucas and Luna drill into the widening gap between the PCE and CPI inflation measures. On June 25, 2026, core PCE hit 3.4 percent—its highest since October 2023—while CPI is running cooler. They explain why the divergence matters for Fed policy, bond markets, and your portfolio, and walk through how consumers and businesses are experiencing inflation differently depending on which index you use. A focused, data-driven look at a technical but consequential economic signal. #PCE #CPI #CoreInflation #FederalReserve #BondMarket #EconomicIndicators #InflationDivergence #MonetaryPolicy #10YearBreakeven #RealGDP #ConsumerSpending #BusinessInvestment #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroData #InterestRates #InflationAnalysis Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Lucas and Luna dive into the latest capacity utilization data — 76.2% in May 2026, up slightly from 76.13% — and explain why this often-overlooked metric is sending a nuanced signal about the economy. They contrast it with industrial production growth, rising job openings, and sticky core inflation to show how capacity constraints might be building beneath a seemingly steady expansion. With factory job cuts near crisis levels and the 10-year breakeven inflation rate ticking up, the hosts explore whether the Fed is caught between a tight labor market and persistent price pressures. #CapacityUtilization #IndustrialProduction #Inflation #CoreCPI #JoblessClaims #JOLTS #FedPolicy #EconomicIndicators #FactoryJobs #LaborMarket #BreakevenInflation #MacroData #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Podcast #LucasAndLuna #EconomicTrends Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

On this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna examine a puzzling divergence: core inflation hit 3.4% in May 2026, its highest since October 2023, yet long-term bond yields have fallen. The hosts walk through the bond math, explaining why the 10-year Treasury yield dropped 13 basis points this week despite hot inflation data. They connect the dots to the 10-year breakeven inflation rate slipping to 2.18%, the industrial production index at 102.6, and the wider geopolitical backdrop. The conversation drills into whether the bond market is betting on a growth slowdown or simply trusting the Fed's forward guidance. A focused look at how fixed-income markets are pricing a contradictory macro picture in late June 2026. #EconomicIndicators #BondMarket #CoreInflation #TreasuryYields #FederalReserve #BreakevenInflationRate #IndustrialProduction #MacroData #Economics #InvestmentStrategy #InflationOutlook #FixedIncome #GDPGrowth #LucasAndLuna #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #June2026 #MacroAnalysis Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Lucas and Luna unpack the surprising JOLTS data from April 2026: job openings jumped to 7.6 million from 6.9 million, a 10.6 percent increase in one month. They explore what this surge means for the broader economic picture, including whether it signals genuine labor demand or noise from sectoral shifts. With layoffs still elevated in manufacturing and the unemployment rate holding at 4.3 percent, they discuss the mixed signals the job market is sending and how investors should interpret them. This episode drills into the specific numbers, the Fed's likely reaction, and what it means for workers. No fluff, just concrete macro. #JOLTS #JobOpenings #LaborMarket #EconomicIndicators #FedPolicy #JobMarket #Unemployment #Manufacturing #FactoryJobCuts #April2026 #Economics #Business #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroData #GDP #CPI #PMI Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into the 10-year breakeven inflation rate, which has dropped to 2.21 percent as of June 23, 2026. They explain what breakeven inflation actually measures — the difference between nominal and inflation-protected Treasury yields — and why the recent decline matters for the Fed, bond markets, and your portfolio. They compare the current level to the 2.5-plus percent peaks of 2022 and 2024, and discuss whether the drop signals genuine disinflation or a shift in market sentiment about long-run growth. With real GDP growth at just 1.6 percent annualized and CPI still above 3 percent, the hosts explore whether the bond market is pricing in a soft landing or something more ominous. This episode is grounded in live data through June 24, 2026 and offers a clear, non-technical look at one of the most important but least discussed inflation indicators. #BreakevenInflation #10YearTreasury #TIPS #Inflation #FederalReserve #BondMarket #RealGDP #CPI #EconomicIndicators #MacroData #SoftLanding #Disinflation #TreasuryYields #MonetaryPolicy #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #LucasAndLuna Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dive into the striking disconnect between strong headline GDP growth and a surge in factory job cuts that, according to S&P, approached levels not seen since the financial crisis and the pandemic. With the unemployment rate flat at 4.3% and JOLTS job openings rising to 7.6 million, why are manufacturing layoffs spiking? The hosts examine the latest data—including capacity utilization at 76.2% and industrial production edging up—and explore structural factors like automation, shifting global demand, and the lingering effects of past supply-chain disruptions. They also discuss what this means for workers, policymakers, and investors trying to read the mixed signals in today's labor market. A must-listen for anyone puzzled by the gap between GDP reports and on-the-ground employment trends. #FactoryJobCuts #ManufacturingLayoffs #GDPGrowth #LaborMarket #JOLTS #UnemploymentRate #CapacityUtilization #IndustrialProduction #EconomicIndicators #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #JoblessClaims #SupplyChain #Automation #SPGlobal #MacroData #EmploymentTrends Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Factory job cuts in June 2026 are nearing levels not seen since the financial crisis and the Covid pandemic, according to S&P. Lucas and Luna dig into why manufacturing is struggling even as the broader economy grows at a 1.6 percent annualized rate. They examine the divergence between industrial production, which is still rising modestly, and capacity utilization at 76.2 percent, which is below pre-pandemic norms. The hosts also touch on the JOLTS data showing job openings rebounding to 7.6 million, while the unemployment rate holds at 4.3 percent. The conversation connects these dots to the sticky core CPI at 336.1 and the 10-year breakeven inflation rate at 2.23 percent, asking whether the labor market is sending a false signal about the health of the economy. A focused look at one of the most troubling data points in the current macro picture. #FactoryJobCuts #Manufacturing #LaborMarket #S&P #IndustrialProduction #CapacityUtilization #JOLTS #Unemployment #CoreCPI #Inflation #BreakevenRate #GDP #Economics #Economy #RecessionSignals #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicIndicators Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Lucas and Luna unpack the puzzling divergence between rising job openings and steady unemployment in mid-2026. With JOLTS data showing a surge to 7.6 million openings but the unemployment rate stuck at 4.3 percent, they drill into what's really happening beneath the surface. Drawing on the latest figures from May 2026 and anecdotes from states like Nevada, they explore how the labor market is rebalancing—why workers aren't switching jobs as much, how the quits rate tells a different story, and what that means for wage growth. Plus, they connect the dots to the Fed's next moves under new Chair Kevin Warsh. A focused look at one of the year's most confusing economic indicators. #JOLTS #JobOpenings #LaborMarket #Unemployment #Hiring #QuitsRate #NevadaJobs #FedPolicy #KevinWarsh #EconomicIndicators #WageGrowth #BusinessPodcast #FexingoBusiness #Economics #MacroData #JobMarket2026 #HotLaborMarket #WorkerPower Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Lucas and Luna dig into the latest business inventories data, which climbed to $2.73 trillion in April 2026. They explain why inventory build-ups can signal both economic strength and impending correction, using the recent GDP-inventory divergence as a case study. With real GDP growth at just 1.6 percent annualized, the hosts discuss whether companies are overstocking or preparing for sustained demand. They also touch on how inventory-to-sales ratios and capacity utilization correlate, and what this means for investors watching the next GDP print. A focused, data-driven episode for anyone trying to read the macro tea leaves. #BusinessInventories #GDP #EconomicIndicators #CapacityUtilization #InventoryToSalesRatio #MacroData #SupplyChain #GDPGrowth #InventoryBuild #Economics #FexingoEconomy #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicPodcast #Podcast #2026Economy #InventoryCycle #MacroEconomics Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into the latest average hourly earnings data and what it really means for workers and the broader economy. With private-sector earnings at $37.50 an hour in May 2026, they explore why wage growth hasn't kept pace with inflation, how the gap affects consumer spending, and what it signals for future Fed policy. They also tie in the recent unemployment rate hold at 4.3% and nonfarm payroll growth to paint a fuller picture of the labor market. This episode gives you a concrete number and framework to understand wage dynamics in 2026 without the usual political spin. #AverageHourlyEarnings #WageGrowth #LaborMarket #Inflation #FedPolicy #ConsumerSpending #Economics #EconomicIndicators #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Podcast #LucasAndLuna #NonfarmPayrolls #UnemploymentRate #RealWages #CPI #PCE #May2026Data Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode, Lucas and Luna dive into why the Federal Reserve focuses on the core PCE price index over the more widely reported CPI. They explain the methodological differences, discuss the latest data showing core PCE at 129.6 (up from 129.32), and explore what that means for the interest rate outlook in mid-2026. The conversation also touches on how the Fed's preferred metric gives a clearer picture of consumer behavior and why investors should care. A quick mention of how listener support via Buy Me a Coffee keeps the show ad-free. #CorePCE #Inflation #FederalReserve #FedChairmanWarsh #InterestRates #EconomicIndicators #PCEPriceIndex #CPIvsPCE #MonetaryPolicy #FOMC #MacroData #BusinessPodcast #Economics #Investing #ConsumerSpending #InflationOutlook #FexingoBusiness #Podcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode, Lucas and Luna dive into the latest business inventories data and what it tells us about the direction of GDP. With total business inventories rising to $2.73 trillion in April 2026, they explore how inventory accumulation has been a key driver of recent GDP growth, even as consumer spending shows signs of slowing. They discuss the implications for the broader economy, including potential risks if inventory growth outpaces demand. Using specific data from the latest reports, they break down why this metric matters for investors and what it signals about the second quarter and beyond. A focused look at one of the quieter but powerful indicators in the macro toolkit. #BusinessInventories #GDP #EconomicIndicators #MacroData #SupplyChain #InventoryCycle #ConsumerSpending #RealGDP #EconomicGrowth #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #Macroeconomics #InvestmentStrategy #DataAnalysis #IndustrialProduction #CapacityUtilization #2026Economy Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna break down why the PCE price index — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge — is diverging from CPI in 2026. With PCE at 130.9 and core PCE at 129.6 in April, the hosts explain how the composition and weighting differences create a more nuanced inflation picture. They also discuss what the 10-year breakeven rate's drop to 2.25 percent signals about market expectations, and why investors should watch PCE for policy signals. A must-listen for anyone trying to read the macro tea leaves. #PCEPriceIndex #CorePCE #CPI #Inflation #FederalReserve #MacroData #10YearBreakeven #MonetaryPolicy #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicIndicators #GDP #PriceStability #InflationExpectations #PersonalConsumptionExpenditures #MarketSignals #Investing Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode, Lucas and Luna dive into a fresh angle on economic indicators: the role of business inventories in shaping GDP growth. With new data showing total business inventories reaching $2.73 trillion as of April 2026, and real GDP growth slowing to 1.6 percent, the hosts explore how inventory builds and draws can mask underlying economic momentum. They discuss why business inventories are a lagging indicator, how destocking can signal a sharp economic slowdown, and what the current inventory-to-sales ratio suggests about future GDP revisions. Lucas shares a concrete example from the 2022-2023 inventory cycle, and Luna connects the dots to recent industrial production and capacity utilization data. A must-listen for anyone trying to read between the lines of quarterly GDP reports. #BusinessInventories #GDP #EconomicIndicators #InventoryCycle #InventoryToSalesRatio #RealGDP #IndustrialProduction #CapacityUtilization #MacroData #EconomicGrowth #SupplyChain #Destocking #Restocking #2026Economy #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #MacroEconomics Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna unpack a subtle but powerful signal in today's macro data: the widening gap between nominal GDP growth and the CPI. Nominal GDP is running at about 5.0% annualized in early 2026, while CPI inflation has moderated to around 2.5%. That spread — roughly 2.5 percentage points — represents real economic growth, but the composition matters. Lucas breaks down why this divergence is happening: strong consumer spending in services, but weak goods output and a cooling housing sector. They tie it to the latest data: real GDP growth of just 1.6% in Q1 2026, core CPI at 336.1, and a 10-year breakeven inflation rate of 2.25%, down slightly. They also discuss how this environment affects asset allocation — favoring equities over bonds when real growth is positive but inflation is falling. A must-listen for anyone trying to read the macro tea leaves without getting lost in the noise. #GDP #CPI #Inflation #EconomicIndicators #MacroData #RealGDP #NominalGDP #CoreCPI #BreakevenInflation #Fed #KevinWarsh #Investing #MarketOutlook #Bonds #Equities #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this June 2026 episode, Lucas and Luna unpack why the Treasury yield curve is steepening even as the Fed holds rates steady. With the 2-year at 3.66%, the 10-year at 4.45%, and the 30-year at 4.90%, the spread between short and long-term bonds is the widest in years. They explore what this signals about growth expectations, inflation, and the new Fed chair's first meeting. Plus, a look at how this steepening contrasts with the inverted curve of 2023 and what it means for your portfolio. #YieldCurve #SteepeningYieldCurve #TreasuryBonds #FedPolicy #KevinWarsh #InterestRates #BondMarket #InflationExpectations #EconomicIndicators #GDPGrowth #TenYearTreasury #TwoYearTreasury #ThirtyYearTreasury #InvestmentStrategy #MacroEconomics #BusinessPodcast #FexingoBusiness #EconomicsShow Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In episode 60 of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dive into a key but often overlooked data point: total business inventories. With inventories hitting over $2.7 trillion in April 2026, they explain how stockpiling signals business confidence and future GDP revisions. Drawing on the latest data, Lucas shows how the inventory-to-sales ratio has crept up from pre-pandemic levels, hinting at potential slowing demand. Luna pushes back on whether inventories are always a lagging indicator, and they debate what the recent 0.5% monthly rise means for Q2 GDP estimates. A concrete look at why warehouse shelves tell us more than headlines do. #BusinessInventories #GDP #MacroData #Economics #SupplyChain #InventoryToSalesRatio #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicIndicators #LucasAndLuna #InventoryCycle #GDPRevision #ConsumerDemand #FederalReserve #2026Economy #WholesaleTrade #DataDriven #MacroEconomics Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Lucas and Luna dive into the latest JOLTS data from April 2026, which showed a surprising jump in job openings to 7.6 million—even as hiring remained flat and the unemployment rate stayed at 4.3 percent. They explore what this divergence means for the Fed, wage growth, and whether the labor market is tightening or loosening. Lucas explains why the ratio of openings to unemployed workers matters more than raw numbers, and Luna questions whether JOLTS is still a reliable signal given declining response rates. Tune in for a clear-eyed look at one of the most puzzling data points in the current economy. #JOLTS #JobOpenings #LaborMarket #Fed #FederalReserve #KevinWarsh #WageGrowth #Unemployment #QuitsRate #Hiring #Economics #EconomicIndicators #DataReliability #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicPodcast #MacroData #LucasAndLuna Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna explore a growing divergence in the macro data: capacity utilization is ticking higher while consumer spending shows signs of strain. With industrial production rising but jobless claims creeping up, they ask whether this is a signal of resilience or a warning of a slowdown. They dive into the latest capacity utilization reading of 76.2 percent, compare it to pre-pandemic averages, and discuss what it means for inflation and the Fed's next move. A must-listen for anyone trying to read the economic tea leaves in mid-2026. #CapacityUtilization #ConsumerSpending #EconomicIndicators #IndustrialProduction #Inflation #FederalReserve #GDP #CPI #MacroData #LaborMarket #JoblessClaims #WholesalePrices #Energy #BusinessCycle #RecessionSignals #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into capacity utilization, one of the most overlooked leading indicators. With the latest reading at 76.2 percent in May 2026, up slightly from 76.13 percent, they explore why this slow creep matters more than the headline GDP or jobs numbers. They trace the history of capacity utilization as a recession predictor, look at how it behaved before the 2008 and 2020 downturns, and ask whether the current plateau signals an impending slowdown. Lucas also explains why the Fed watches this number closely and how it connects to industrial production and business investment. Luna pushes back on whether capacity utilization is still relevant in a services-dominated economy, and they land on a nuanced take: it's not flashing red yet, but the trend deserves attention. A grounded, data-driven conversation for anyone trying to read the macro tea leaves in mid-2026. #CapacityUtilization #EconomicIndicators #RecessionSignals #IndustrialProduction #Manufacturing #FedPolicy #LeadingIndicators #BusinessInvestment #MacroData #EconomicOutlook #GDP #Inflation #SupplyChain #BusinessCycle #LucasAndLuna #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The economy is growing, unemployment is low, and stocks are near all-time highs. So why are initial jobless claims rising? In Episode 56 of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into the latest claims data — 229,000 for the week of June 6, up from 225,000 the prior week and 212,000 a year ago. They explore the gap between headline GDP and the real economy: layoffs are ticking up in sectors like retail, tech, and hospitality, even as industrial production and capacity utilization creep higher. Is this a normal churn or a warning signal? The hosts compare claims trends to the JOLTS job openings spike (7.6 million in April) and discuss what the rising four-week average means for the labor market's resilience. They also tie it to recent news: the ECB rate hike, persistent energy inflation, and consumer price growth at 4.2 percent annually. A nuanced look at why one number can tell two different stories. #JoblessClaims #LaborMarket #EconomicIndicators #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #GDP #InitialClaims #Layoffs #ECB #Inflation #CPI #JOLTS #IndustrialProduction #CapacityUtilization #EnergyPrices #RealEconomy #DataDriven Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Lucas and Luna dig into capacity utilisation—the measure of how hard factories and mines are running—and explain why it's flashing a subtle warning even as GDP grows. With the May 2026 reading at 76.2%, up slightly from 76.13%, but still below pre-pandemic averages, the hosts explore what this metric tells us about inflation, business investment, and the real slack in the economy. They connect it to the recent jump in wholesale prices and the Fed's tricky path ahead. If you've ever wondered why GDP can look strong while the ground beneath it shifts, this episode is for you. #CapacityUtilisation #EconomicIndicators #IndustrialProduction #RealGDP #WholesaleInflation #PPI #BusinessInvestment #FederalReserve #Inflation #Slack #EconomicTurns #Manufacturing #May2026 #FexingoEconomics #BusinessPodcast #EconomicsPodcast #MacroData #LucasAndLuna Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dive into the growing divergence between real GDP growth and consumer inflation in mid-2026. With GDP annualizing at just 1.6% while CPI hits 4.2% annually—the highest in three years—the hosts unpack what this split signals for household budgets, Federal Reserve policy, and portfolio strategy. They examine specific data points including the May CPI release, the 10-year breakeven rate, and the surprising resilience of job openings despite rising claims. Lucas explains why this macro environment feels different from the 1970s stagflation playbook, and Luna challenges whether the 'soft landing' narrative still holds. The conversation also touches on why real wages are falling even as the labor market stays tight, and what investors should watch next. A focused, number-driven look at the economy's mixed signals. #GDP #CPI #Inflation #RealGDP #ConsumerPrices #FederalReserve #Stagflation #MacroData #EconomicIndicators #JobMarket #Wages #BreakevenRate #PortfolioStrategy #SoftLanding #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #Investment Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

GDP is growing at 1.6 percent annualized, but a less-watched number—industrial production—is telling a more interesting story. Lucas and Luna dig into why the factory sector is outperforming services, what capacity utilization at 76.1 percent means for inflation, and how the Iran conflict is reshaping manufacturing supply chains. They connect the dots between the ECB rate hike, the 4.2 percent CPI print, and the real economy humming beneath the headlines. Plus: why this matters for your portfolio as small caps rally 3.1 percent in a week. #IndustrialProduction #GDP #CapacityUtilization #Manufacturing #SupplyChain #IranConflict #ECB #CPI #SmallCaps #Russell2000 #Economics #MacroData #Inflation #FederalReserve #IndustrialOutput #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicIndicators Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Lucas and Luna dig into an uncomfortable economic paradox: the unemployment rate is flat at 4.3%, monthly payrolls keep rising, yet average hourly earnings adjusted for CPI are actually shrinking. They explore how the 4.2% annual CPI print in May has erased wage gains, leaving workers with less purchasing power than a year ago. Lucas walks through the math of real wages, why hourly earnings data can be misleading due to composition effects, and what this means for consumer spending heading into the second half of 2026. They also touch on the ECB's recent rate hike and how energy-driven inflation is squeezing households globally. No hot takes—just the numbers and what they imply for the broader economy. #RealWages #Inflation #LaborMarket #CPI #AverageHourlyEarnings #PurchasingPower #ECB #EnergyPrices #ConsumerSpending #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicIndicators #WageGrowth #May2026CPI #FedPolicy #HouseholdFinances #NominalVsReal Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode of Economic Indicators, Lucas and Luna dive into the European Central Bank's first rate hike since 2023, announced on June 11, 2026, amid the Iran conflict-driven energy surge. They explore how this ECB move signals a shift in global inflation dynamics, linking it to the recent 4.2% annual CPI rise in the US and the steepening yield curve. Using the 10-year breakeven rate of 2.31%, they discuss what synchronized central bank tightening means for inflation expectations across the Atlantic. Listeners will learn why the ECB's decision matters for US investors and how it connects to the surprising jump in job openings to 7.6 million. The hosts keep it grounded with concrete data from June 2026, making sense of cross-border monetary policy without the jargon. #ECB #RateHike #InflationExpectations #CPI #10YearBreakeven #GlobalInflation #CentralBankPolicy #IranConflict #EnergyPrices #YieldCurve #JOLTS #MonetaryPolicy #Economics #Podcast #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicIndicators #MacroData Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna unpack the 10-year breakeven inflation rate—currently at 2.31 percent—and what it reveals about market expectations for future inflation. They compare it to the latest CPI print of 4.2 percent and the core PCE index, explaining why breakevens matter more than headline numbers for investors. The hosts also discuss how the ECB's recent rate hike and energy price shocks are shaping the inflation outlook. A focused, data-driven conversation for anyone trying to read the macro tea leaves. #10YearBreakeven #Inflation #CPI #PCE #ECB #EnergyPrices #BondMarket #FederalReserve #MacroData #EconomicIndicators #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Podcast #Finance #Economics #Investing #TIPS #RealRates Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In episode 49 of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna break down the puzzling April JOLTS report: job openings jumped by over 700,000 to 7.6 million, yet hiring barely budged. They explore what this growing gap between vacancies and actual hiring tells us about labor market friction, worker reluctance, and whether the economy is really as strong as the headline numbers suggest. With the unemployment rate stuck at 4.3 percent and initial jobless claims creeping up, the hosts ask if 'slow hiring' is the new normal. A focused, data-driven look at one of the most misunderstood indicators in macroeconomics. #JobOpenings #JOLTS #LaborMarket #Hiring #Unemployment #EconomicIndicators #Friction #SkillsMismatch #FederalReserve #QuitsRate #WageGrowth #MacroData #April2026 #Businesses #Workers #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into the May 2026 wholesale inflation report that showed a 1.1 percent monthly jump, far above expectations. They explore how surging energy costs, driven by the Iran conflict, are feeding through to producer prices and what this means for future consumer inflation. The hosts connect yesterday's PPI data to the broader economic picture: the 10-year breakeven rate is actually falling, suggesting markets expect this spike to be temporary. But with the ECB hiking rates for the first time since 2023 and U.S. consumer prices running at 4.2 percent annually, is the Fed really done? Lucas and Luna discuss the pipeline from wholesale to retail, the role of energy, and whether businesses can keep absorbing costs. A focused, data-rich conversation for anyone trying to read the macro tea leaves in real time. #WholesaleInflation #PPI #EnergyPrices #IranConflict #ProducerPrices #Inflation #ECBHike #BreakevenRate #CPI #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #SupplyChain #EconomicIndicators #MacroData #BusinessPodcast #FexingoBusiness #Economics #InflationExpectations Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into the May 2026 Producer Price Index report—wholesale prices surged 1.1% month-over-month, far above expectations, driven by a spike in energy costs linked to the Iran conflict. They discuss why PPI matters as a leading indicator for consumer inflation, how the 10-year breakeven rate is diverging from PPI, and what this means for Fed policy and interest-sensitive sectors. The hosts also connect the data to the ECB's surprise rate hike and the widening gap between industrial production and capacity utilization. A focused look at a single data point that could reshape the macro outlook. #PPI #WholesaleInflation #ProducerPriceIndex #EnergyCosts #IranConflict #Inflation #FederalReserve #ECB #InterestRates #10YearBreakeven #IndustrialProduction #CapacityUtilization #MacroData #Economics #EconomicIndicators #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Investing Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

On this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna unpack the 10-year breakeven inflation rate, which has fallen to 2.29 percent from 2.34 percent in just a few days. They explore what this market-based measure says about investor expectations versus the official CPI reading of 4.2 percent annual inflation. The hosts discuss how breakeven rates reflect real-time sentiment, why they sometimes diverge from headline CPI, and what the recent dip might mean for Fed policy and bond markets. Tune in for a focused breakdown of one of the most underappreciated signals in macro data. #BreakevenInflation #InflationExpectations #10YearTreasury #CPI #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #BondMarket #TIPS #RealYield #Inflation #MacroData #EconomicIndicators #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #InterestRates #TreasuryYields #MarketSignal Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Lucas and Luna examine the latest CPI print showing 4.2% annual inflation in May 2026 — the highest in three years — and dig into what's really driving it: an energy-price surge connected to global supply shocks and the ECB's first rate hike since 2023. They break down the gap between headline and core CPI, explain why breakeven inflation rates matter now more than ever, and explore what higher energy costs mean for Fed policy, consumer expectations, and the broader economic outlook. Specific data points include the May CPI release, the 10-year breakeven rate holding at 2.34%, and the ECB's decision to lift rates amid Iran-related energy pressures. #CPI #Inflation #EnergyPrices #FederalReserve #ECB #BreakevenInflation #CoreCPI #May2026CPI #MonetaryPolicy #InterestRates #MacroEconomics #EconomicIndicators #SupplyShock #Iran #GlobalMarkets #Business #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into a puzzling disconnect: the economy is growing, unemployment is low, yet initial jobless claims have jumped to 225,000 as of late May 2026—up from 212,000 the week before. They explore what's driving the increase, from sector-level layoffs to seasonal adjustment quirks, and what it might signal about the labor market's health. Using data on continued claims and the quits rate, they debate whether this is a blip or the start of a trend. If you've been watching the headlines about consumer sentiment souring and inflation staying sticky, this episode connects the dots between those macro signals and the real-world data on the ground. Lucas and Luna break down the numbers without the noise, giving you the context to understand what rising jobless claims really mean for the economy and your portfolio. #JoblessClaims #InitialClaims #LaborMarket #Unemployment #EconomicIndicators #MacroData #FOMC #FedPolicy #Layoffs #ContinuedClaims #QuitsRate #BusinessCycle #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #LucasAndLuna #EmploymentReport #RecessionSignals Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Episode 43 of Economic Indicators with Fexingo. Lucas and Luna dig into a puzzling disconnect: GDP is growing, unemployment is low, yet the New York Fed's latest survey shows household financial worries hitting their highest level since July 2022. They unpack why the sentiment data matters more than GDP for the real economy, and what it signals for consumer spending and the Fed's next move. Plus, how the May CPI reading of 4.2 percent annual inflation feeds into the anxiety. A focused look at a key micro-macro divide. #ConsumerSentiment #NewYorkFed #GDP #CPI #Inflation #HouseholdFinances #MacroData #FedPolicy #ConsumerSpending #EconomicIndicators #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #PodcastEpisode #FinancialLiteracy #DataDriven #Macroeconomics #EconomicOutlook Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into the latest business inventories data, which hit $2.71 trillion in March 2026. They explain why inventories rising faster than sales is historically a leading recession signal, especially with capacity utilisation stuck at 76.1 percent. Using the recent JOLTS job openings surge and the yield curve steepening as context, they discuss whether the economy is headed for a mid-cycle slowdown or something more serious. Lucas walks through the inventory-to-sales ratio and why it matters for GDP revisions, while Luna pushes back on whether this time is different given supply-chain normalization. If you want to understand one of the most underrated leading indicators in macro data, this episode is for you. #BusinessInventories #InventoryToSalesRatio #LeadingRecessionSignal #CapacityUtilisation #JOLTS #YieldCurve #GDP #SupplyChain #MacroData #EconomicIndicators #FedPolicy #MidCycleSlowdown #InventoryCycle #LucasAndLuna #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #RecessionWatch Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

GDP is growing at 1.6 percent annualised, the unemployment rate is 4.3 percent, and payrolls keep rising. So why did the New York Fed's latest survey show household financial worries hitting their highest level since July 2022? Lucas and Luna dig into the disconnect between top-line macro data and what families are actually feeling. They look at the gap between nominal GDP growth and real wage gains, the surge in long-term unemployment that official jobless numbers miss, and why the ten-year breakeven inflation rate falling to 2.35 percent might signal that consumers are more pessimistic than the headline CPI suggests. If you have felt the economy is fine on paper but tight in your wallet, this episode explains why the numbers and the vibes have split. #NewYorkFed #HouseholdFinances #GDPGrowth #Inflation #ConsumerSentiment #LaborMarket #LongTermUnemployment #RealWages #BreakevenInflation #EconomicDisconnect #MacroData #FederalReserve #CPI #Podcast #Economics #Business #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Episode 40 of Economic Indicators with Fexingo digs into the New York Fed's latest Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows household worries over finances hitting their highest level since July 2022. Lucas and Luna explain why inflation expectations among consumers now diverge from official CPI data, and why that gap matters for the Fed's next move. They connect the survey to real GDP growth of just 1.6 percent and the 10-year breakeven inflation rate dipping to 2.35 percent. The hosts explore how sticky wage expectations and higher long-run inflation views could keep the Fed on hold through summer 2026. A focused conversation on the psychology of inflation and its real economic consequences. #InflationExpectations #NewYorkFed #ConsumerSurvey #HouseholdFinances #CPI #FedPolicy #MacroData #EconomicIndicators #RealGDP #BreakevenInflation #WageGrowth #MonetaryPolicy #ConsumerConfidence #InflationPsychology #Economics #Business #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into the latest New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows household worries over finances hitting their highest level since July 2022. They explore how this shift in consumer sentiment is beginning to affect spending patterns, savings rates, and even the Federal Reserve's policy path. With the May jobs report due Friday and the S&P 500 down 2.4% in the past five days, the hosts connect the dots between rising anxiety and real economic data like the 4.3% unemployment rate and the 7.6 million job openings from JOLTS. They discuss why inflation expectations matter more than current inflation for economic forecasting, and what it means when consumers start expecting higher prices but aren't seeing it in core PCE yet. A timely look at the psychology driving macro trends. #InflationExpectations #ConsumerSentiment #NewYorkFed #HouseholdFinances #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #EconomicIndicators #JobsReport #UnemploymentRate #JOLTS #CorePCE #SP500 #MacroData #ConsumerBehavior #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicOutlook Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The S&P 500 is at 7,384 and the Nasdaq has dropped over five percent in five days, yet real GDP grew at 1.6 percent annualized in Q1 2026 and the unemployment rate is a low 4.3 percent. Lucas and Luna unpick this apparent contradiction by looking at the composition of GDP growth, the surge in job openings to 7.6 million, and what the bond market is pricing in via the ten-year yield at 4.54 percent. They explain why the stock sell-off isn't contradicting the macro data — it's reading a different signal entirely. A grounded conversation about what markets are seeing that GDP alone doesn't show. #Nasdaq #S&P500 #GDP #JOLTS #JobOpenings #BondMarket #YieldCurve #StockMarket #FedPolicy #Economics #MacroData #MarketSellOff #TenYearYield #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicIndicators #RateCut #Inflation Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna break down the surprising steepening of the yield curve in mid-2026. With the ten-year Treasury yield at 4.54 percent and the two-year at 3.62 percent, the spread has widened past 90 basis points after being inverted for over two years. What does this signal about growth expectations, Fed policy, and the risk of a recession? The hosts examine the role of term premiums, the impact of the Iran conflict on inflation expectations, and why a steepening curve doesn't always mean 'all clear' for the economy. They also discuss how investors should interpret the bond market's message versus the GDP data showing only 1.6 percent annualized growth. Packed with specific numbers and real-market context, this episode helps you read the macro tea leaves without the jargon. #YieldCurve #SteepeningYieldCurve #TreasuryYields #TenYearTreasury #TwoYearTreasury #BondMarket #FederalReserve #FedPolicy #InflationExpectations #TermPremium #EconomicGrowth #GDP #RecessionSignal #IranConflict #MacroEconomics #BusinessPodcast #FexingoBusiness #EconomicIndicators Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into capacity utilisation—an often-overlooked metric that reveals how much industrial slack the economy really has. With the latest reading stuck at 76.1 percent, well below the long-run average of 80 percent, the hosts explain why factories aren't running hot despite decent GDP growth. They connect this to the tepid inflation picture, the Fed's cautious stance, and what it means for investors. Lucas walks through the data from April 2026, contrasts it with the 2021-2022 rebound, and explains why capacity utilisation tends to peak before recessions. Luna asks whether the manufacturing weakness is structural—from reshoring and automation—or just cyclical. The episode closes with a look at the jobs report due this Friday and what a capacity utilisation uptick could signal about the broader economy. #CapacityUtilisation #IndustrialProduction #FedPolicy #Inflation #GDPGrowth #Manufacturing #EconomicSlack #BusinessInvestment #Reshoring #Automation #JobsReport #May2026 #April2026Data #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicIndicators #MacroData Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo