How Buyers Now Price SaaS Customer Churn Trajectory

In episode 106 of Tech M&A with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna drill into a specific due diligence metric that strategic buyers are prioritizing in mid-2026: the trajectory of customer churn over time, not just the current rate. Using Snowflake's recent deal as a case study, they examine how acquirers model churn acceleration and deceleration, and why a 5% churn rate with a downward trend commands a higher multiple than 3% with an upward one. Lucas walks through the math behind churn trajectory analysis, referencing Snowflake's 261.45 price and its 0.2% five-day slip as context. Luna pushes back on whether this metric really predicts integration success. They also touch on Adobe's 2.6% uptick as an example of a company that has successfully inverted its churn curve. The conversation stays grounded in the July 12, 2026 market environment, where buyers are increasingly savvy about the quality of recurring revenue. A quick listener-support interlude keeps the episode ad-free. #ChurnTrajectory #SaaS #MergersAndAcquisitions #DueDiligence #Snowflake #Adobe #CustomerChurn #RevenueQuality #StrategicBuyers #TechMerger #DealRoom #RecurringRevenue #ChurnCurve #AcquisitionMultiple #Business #Technology #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo