How Capacity Utilization Signals the Next Recession

In this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into capacity utilization, one of the most overlooked leading indicators. With the latest reading at 76.2 percent in May 2026, up slightly from 76.13 percent, they explore why this slow creep matters more than the headline GDP or jobs numbers. They trace the history of capacity utilization as a recession predictor, look at how it behaved before the 2008 and 2020 downturns, and ask whether the current plateau signals an impending slowdown. Lucas also explains why the Fed watches this number closely and how it connects to industrial production and business investment. Luna pushes back on whether capacity utilization is still relevant in a services-dominated economy, and they land on a nuanced take: it's not flashing red yet, but the trend deserves attention. A grounded, data-driven conversation for anyone trying to read the macro tea leaves in mid-2026. #CapacityUtilization #EconomicIndicators #RecessionSignals #IndustrialProduction #Manufacturing #FedPolicy #LeadingIndicators #BusinessInvestment #MacroData #EconomicOutlook #GDP #Inflation #SupplyChain #BusinessCycle #LucasAndLuna #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo