How Do You Rate Public Opinion Polls?

Mack and Steve discuss if they find election poll results highly favorable, favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, unfavorable, or highly unfavorable. References A straw poll, or vote, according to Merriam-Webster:  https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/straw%20vote Fox News may not have handled coverage of the 2012 election as well as they could have: Folkenflik, David. “Media Circus: Fox Struggles With Obama’s Win?” November 7, 2012. NPR. https://www.npr.org/2012/11/07/164576251/media-circus-fox-struggles-with-obamas-win How much did Obama win by? National Archives. “2021 Electoral College Results.” Last reviewed: June 26, 2024. https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/2012 Iowa likes its straw poll, even if Mack does not: Pate, Paul D. “Iowa Secretary of State Shares Final Results of Iowa State Fair Presidential Straw Poll.” August 21, 2023. Iowa.gov. https://sos.iowa.gov/news/2023_08_21.html How can you tell if a poll is scientific? Bloustein Center for Survey Research. “Assessing Poll Validity.” Rutgers.edu. https://bcsr.rutgers.edu/assessing-poll-validity/ Learn about a random sample: Hayes, Adam. “Simple Random Sampling: 6 Basic Steps With Examples.” Updated: August 14, 2024. Investopedia. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/simple-random-sample.asp The popular vote doesn’t decide the president because we have the electoral college: USA.gov. “Electoral College.” Updated: August 22, 2024. https://www.usa.gov/electoral-college Here are the polling groups Mack listed: Pew Research Center https://www.pewresearch.org/ Gallop https://news.gallup.com/home.aspx The Harris Poll https://theharrispoll.com/ Quinnipiac University https://poll.qu.edu/ Some context for the Defense Department paying $400 for a hammer in the 80s: Freedberg, Jr., Sydney J. “The myth of the $600 hammer.” December 7, 1998. Government Executive. https://www.govexec.com/federal-news/1998/12/the-myth-of-the-600-hammer/5271/ Learn about margin of error: Mercer, Andrew. “5 key things to know about the margin of error in election polls.” September 8, 2016. Pew Research Center. https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2016/09/08/understanding-the-margin-of-error-in-election-polls/ Read about how polls incorrectly predicted that Hillary Clinton would win the 2016 election: Mercer, Andrew; Deane, Claudia; and McGeeney, Kyley. “Why 2016 election polls missed their mark.” November 9, 2016. Pew Research Center. https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2016/11/09/why-2016-election-polls-missed-their-mark/ Why it’s not going to be Biden: Miller, Zeke; Long, Colleen; and Superville, Darlene. “Biden drops out of 2024 race after disastrous debate inflamed age concerns. VP Harris gets his nod.” July 21, 2024. AP News. https://apnews.com/article/biden-drops-out-2024-election-ddffde72838370032bdcff946cfc2ce6# The Bradley, or Wilder, effect describes a phenomenon where people voted differently than they said they were going to in a poll due to the race of the candidate: Ballotpedia. “Bradley Effect.” https://ballotpedia.org/Bradley_effect The Whitman effect describes a similar phenomenon with women candidates. There was a study that found that the Bradley/Wilder effect appears to no longer occur and there is no evidence the Whitman effect ever did. Here is the reference, but please note that the journal article is behind a paywall. Hopkins, D. J. (2009). No more Wilder effect, never a Whitman effect: When and why polls mislead about Black and female candidates. The Journal of Politics, 71(3), 769–781. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022381609090707 About internal polling: Askarinam, Leah. “In defense of internal polling.” February 7, 2024. ABC News. https://abcnews.go.com/538/defense-internal-polling/story?id=107003824 Some problems with polling, including the potential to suppress the vote: Ordway, Denise-Marie. “‘Horse race’ reporting of elections can harm voters, candidates, news outlets: What the research says.” October 23, 2023. The Journalist’s Resource. https://journalistsresource.org/politics-and-government/horse-race-reporting-election/ How third-party candidates affected the 2016 election: Jaffe, Alexandra. “By the Numbers: Third-Party Candidates Had an Outsize Impact on the Election.” November 8, 2016. NBC News. https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/2016-election-day/third-party-candidates-having-outsize-impact-election-n680921 If Ohio is out, what are the current swing states? Davis, Jr., Elliot. “7 States That Could Sway the 2024 Presidential Election.” August 27, 2024. U.S. News & World Report. https://www.usnews.com/news/elections/articles/7-swing-states-that-could-decide-the-2024-presidential-election What’s a protest vote? Ballotpedia. “Protest vote.” https://ballotpedia.org/Protest_vote Learn whether it’s misinformation or disinformation: Bitesize. “Misinformation v disinformation: What’s the difference?” BBC. https://www.bbc.co.uk/bitesize/articles/z3hhvj6 What’s a push poll? Ballotpedia. “Push polling.” https://ballotpedia.org/Push_polling So, why did President Biden drop out? One opinion: Bennet, Brian, and Elliott, Philip. “Why Joe Biden Dropped Out.” July 21, 2024. Time. https://time.com/7001028/why-joe-biden-stepped-down/ In case you somehow missed out on the media’s reporting of President Biden’s debate performance: Klein, Betsy; Hunt, Kasie; Lee, MJ; Fox, Lauren; and Tausche, Kayla. “Biden’s debate performance sets off alarm bells for Democrats.” June 28, 2024. CNN. https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/28/politics/joe-biden-debate-performance-panic/index.html Two guys comparing betting markets against what the polls say: CNN. “Expert: 2024 betting odds more accurate than polling data.” Video. https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2024/07/13/smr-latest-betting-odds-on-2024.cnn Who do you think will win MVP in the WNBA this season? ESPN. “WNBA 2024 awards tracker: MVP, Rookie of Year favorites, more.” August 27, 2024. https://www.espn.com/wnba/story/_/id/40484035/wnba-2024-awards-tracker-mvp-rookie-year-coach-all-league-first-team Don’t take Mack’s word for it, this is what polling says about how voters feel about education in this election: Hatfield, Jenn. “Partisan divides over K–12 education in 8 charts.” June 5, 2023. Pew Research Center. https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/06/05/partisan-divides-over-k-12-education-in-8-charts/ Learn about consumer confidence: The Conference Board. “U.S. Consumer Confidence Rises Slightly in August.” August 27, 2024. https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence Protestors at a Republican event: Tareen, Sophia; Offenhartz, Jake; Williams, Corey; and Yamat, Rio. “Protestors rally peacefully at GOP convention for abortion and immigrant rights, end to war in Gaza.” July 15, 2024. AP News. https://apnews.com/article/activists-rnc-milwaukee-police-protest-march-4a315dc5f36fc9390898301d508aee20 Protestors at a Democratic event: Tareen, Sophia; Offenhartz, Jake; Cappelletti, Joey; and Skene, Lea. “Crowds of pro-Palestinian protestors rally and march outside Democratic convention’s 3rd night.” August 21, 2024. AP News. https://apnews.com/article/democratic-convention-chicago-protests-israel-hamas-war-ea3bc9193cc99a5c95ebfd1a42db924f Some reasons why American media might be cautious, even skittish, on reporting the conflict in the Middle East: Kekauoha, Alex. “Navigating the fog of war: Stanford’s discussion on media coverage of the Israel-Hamas war.” December 6, 2023. Stanford Report. https://news.stanford.edu/stories/2023/12/navigating-fog-war-stanfords-discussion-media-coverage-israel-hamas-war A look at how one poll approached the Israel-Palestine conflict: Telhami, Shibley. “Americans feel the need to be extra careful when discussing Israel-Palestine.” March 8, 2024. Brookings. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/americans-feel-the-need-to-be-extra-careful-when-discussing-israel-palestine/ Immigration and the asylum system: American Immigration Council. “Asylum in the United States.” January 15, 2024. https://www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/research/asylum-united-states Immigration and the border wall: U.S. Customs and Border Protection. “Border Wall System – Frequently Asked Questions.” Updated: February 12, 2024. https://www.cbp.gov/border-security/border-wall/border-wall-system-frequently-asked-questions What makes a good poll question? Pew Research Center. “Writing Survey Questions.” https://www.pewresearch.org/writing-survey-questions/ How data metrics/mining techniques are used by politicians: Klosowski, Thorin. “How Political Campaigns Use Your Data to Target You.” April 16, 2024. Electronic Frontier Foundation. https://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2024/04/how-political-campaigns-use-your-data-target-you AI does not have to be accurate in any of its results: Caltech Faculty. “Can We Trust Artificial Intelligence?” Science Exchange. https://scienceexchange.caltech.edu/topics/artificial-intelligence-research/trustworthy-ai Is Texas becoming more purple? One opinion: Barabak, Mark Z. “Column: In two decades, much of the West has turned blue. Why hasn’t Texas?” December 7, 2023. Los Angeles Times. https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2023-12-07/much-of-the-west-has-turned-blue-heres-why-texas-is-an-exception Learn a little (opinionated) history about Rick Perry’s Texas Enterprise Fund: Mitchell, Matthew and Philpot, Anne. “Commentary: Enterprise Fund gives Texans’ money to their competitors.” March 22, 2017. Austin American-Statesman. https://www.statesman.com/story/news/2017/03/22/commentary-enterprise-fund-gives-texans-money-to-their-competitors/9998429007/ Meta sells your data (allegedly): Cooban, Anna. “Meta accused of ‘massive, illegal’ data processing by European consumer groups.” February 20, 2024. CNN. https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/29/tech/meta-data-processing-europe-gdpr/index.html How to make a whiskey sour: https://www.liquor.com/recipes/whiskey-sour/ Ingredients we used for an Almond Joy: Coconut rum, chocolate liqueur, amaretto If you want to make a Mounds: Coconut rum, chocolate liqueur Here are the candy bars we listed: Whatchamacallit https://www.hersheyland.com/whatchamacallit 100 Grand (née 100,000 Dollar Bar) https://www.backthenhistory.com/articles/the-history-of-100-grand-bars Marathon https://www.candyfavorites.com/discontinued-marathon-bar-1981?srsltid=AfmBOorLNDONOftL4_K1DObu9pym1FGHNV8sZRMCMG68hdy5HBJ8yQH1 3Musketeers https://www.3musketeers.com/ Milky Way https://www.milkywaybar.com/our-story Snickers https://www.snickers.com/our-story And Steve is right, they reformulated the Butterfinger: Campbell-Schmitt, Adam. “Butterfinger Changed Its Recipe—Here’s How It Tastes.” December 13, 2018. Food and Wine. https://www.foodandwine.com/news/butterfinger-new-recipe-taste-test Places that Steve went to while in Boston: The Freedom Trail https://www.thefreedomtrail.org/ USS Constitution https://www.nps.gov/bost/learn/historyculture/ussconst.htm “Impassioned Destruction” exhibit at the Old State House https://revolutionaryspaces.org/explore/exhibits/impassioned-destruction/ Anne provided misinformation; the Constitution resides at the National Archives Museum: https://museum.archives.gov/ If you would like some history on the George Floyd protests: National Museum of African American History & Culture. “How George Floyd’s Death Became A Catalyst for Change.” https://nmaahc.si.edu/explore/stories/how-george-floyds-death-became-catalyst-change If you would like some history on the L.A. Riots: Wallenfeldt, Jeff. “Los Angeles Riots of 1992.” Updated: August 21, 2024. Britannica. https://www.britannica.com/event/Los-Angeles-Riots-of-1992 If you would like some history on the Whiskey Rebellion: Kotowski, Peter. “Whiskey Rebellion.” The George Washington Presidential Library. https://www.mountvernon.org/library/digitalhistory/digital-encyclopedia/article/whiskey-rebellion Our bad, Sam Adams did not participate in the Boston Tea Party, but everyone is pretty sure he helped plan it: The Editors of Encyclopaedia Britannica. “Samuel Adams.” Updated: July 15, 2024. https://www.britannica.com/biography/Samuel-Adams And Anne and Mack were wrong. John Adams was totally THERE FOR IT (definitely a fan): Norton, Amanda. “’The Sublimity of it, charms me’: John Adams and the Boston Tea Party.” Updated: May 8, 2019. Massachusetts Historical Society. https://www.masshist.org/beehiveblog/2015/12/the-sublimity-of-it-charms-me-john-adams-and-the-boston-tea-party/ But yeah, other big names from American history weren’t so enthusiastic: Roos, Dave. “Why Some Founding Fathers Disapproved of the Boston Tea Party.” December 11, 2023. History. https://www.history.com/news/boston-tea-party-critics-ben-franklin If you want to watch the Schoolhouse Rock song about the Boston Tea Party: https://youtu.be/t-9pDZMRCpQ?si=5ltTEu5VJb35VQjR If you want to watch the Schoolhouse Rock song that Mack was singing without any copyright permission: https://youtu.be/Y6ikO6LMxF4 The other critically important Boston thing that Steve saw: Waterworks Museum https://waterworksmuseum.org/ What Mack is reading: Jon Gertner. The Idea Factory: Bell Labs and the Great Age of American Innovation. (Penguin Books, 2013). Transistors, a pretty significant invention: Steber, George R. “The Story of the Transistor.” Nuts and Volts. https://www.nutsvolts.com/magazine/article/the-story-of-the-transistor In case you didn’t go to a technical school and didn’t learn about TI: Dennis, Michael Aaron. “Texas Instruments Incorporated.” Updated: August 22, 2024. Britannica. https://www.britannica.com/money/Texas-Instruments-Incorporated Learn about inventions and Thomas Edison: Library of Congress. “Life of Thomas Alva Edison.” https://www.loc.gov/collections/edison-company-motion-pictures-and-sound-recordings/articles-and-essays/biography/life-of-thomas-alva-edison Vacuum tubes are pretty if you want to search for a picture of them on your own. If you want to know important technical information about them: Sosa, Estanisalo Navarro. “Electron tube.” Updated: July 3, 2024. Britannica. https://www.britannica.com/technology/electron-tube What did Alexander Graham Bell ever do? Hochfelder, David. “Alexandar Graham Bell.” Updated: July 29, 2024. Britannica. https://www.britannica.com/biography/Alexander-Graham-Bell In case you didn’t get the Watson joke: The Editors of Encyclopaedia Britannica. “Thomas Augustus Watson.” Updated: April 15, 2024. Britannica. https://www.britannica.com/biography/Thomas-Augustus-Watson If you want to learn about the breakup of Ma Bell: Gianforti, Adrian. “This Month in Business History: The Breakup of the Bell System.” January 24, 2022. History Factory. https://www.historyfactory.com/insights/this-month-in-business-history-bell-system/ Learn the distinction between pure research and applied research:  Hasa. “Difference Between pure and Applied Research.” March 16, 2017. Difference Between. https://www.differencebetween.com/difference-between-pure-and-vs-applied-research/ Learn about the cosmic microwave background: Howell, Elizabeth and Dobrijevic, Daisy. “What is the cosmic microwave background?” January 28, 2022. Space. https://www.space.com/33892-cosmic-microwave-background.html The more common pronunciation is conk: https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/conch In case you didn’t go to a liberal arts school and didn’t learn about Piggy: William Golding. Lord of the Flies. (Penguin Books, republished 2003). Learn about General Atomics: General Atomics. “History.” https://www.ga.com/about/history Learn about Southwest Research: Compton, James R. “Southwest Research Institute.” Updated: November 1, 1995. Texas State Historical Association. https://www.tshaonline.org/handbook/entries/southwest-research-institute Learn about National Laboratories: Energy.gov. “Origins.” https://www.energy.gov/science/history How we made a Reese’s: Peanut butter whiskey, chocolate liqueur The age-old question: what is nougat? Williams, Corey. “What is Nougat and What Is It Made Of?” February 16, 2022. All Recipes. https://www.allrecipes.com/article/what-is-nougat/ Shout-out to Toblerone: Mondelēz International. “Toblerone.” https://www.mondelezinternational.com/our-brands/toblerone/ Get to know the League of Women Voters: https://www.lwv.org/ A better way to inform your vote than election projection polling: https://www.vote411.org/ And the director Quentin Tarantino is not known for telling stories in chronological order. But you already knew that.