How Falling Long-Term Yields Mask Disinflation Hopes

In this episode of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna unpack a counterintuitive signal in the bond market: the ten-year Treasury yield has dropped to 4.45 percent even as core PCE inflation remains sticky at 3.3 percent. They explore why falling long-term yields might actually reflect a growing disinflation bet by institutional investors, not a recession panic. Key data points include the ten-year breakeven inflation rate sliding to 2.38 percent, the Fed funds effective rate holding at 3.64 percent, and the yield curve steepening as two-year yields barely budge. Lucas argues the market is pricing in a softish landing where inflation gradually eases without a crash, while Luna questions whether the Iran war energy surcharge could reignite inflation expectations. They also discuss what this means for the Fed's next moves and for portfolio positioning. No ads, just macro analysis you can use. #MacroTuesdays #BondMarket #TreasuryYields #Disinflation #CorePCE #FederalReserve #BreakevenRate #YieldCurve #Inflation #InterestRates #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroEconomics #InvestmentStrategy #IranWar #EnergyPrices #MarketSignals Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo