Macro Tuesdays with Fexingo: Weekly Economic News, Policy, and Market-Moving Data

This episode of Macro Tuesdays with Fexingo dives into the steepening yield curve that has markets buzzing in mid-June 2026. Lucas and Luna break down why the spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury has widened to nearly 80 basis points, and what that really means for the economy. They challenge the common recession signal interpretation, pointing to the Fed's recent rate hold under new Chair Kevin Warsh, sticky inflation around 3 percent, and a labor market that added 172,000 jobs last month but saw unemployment tick up to 4.3 percent. Could this steepening actually signal growth expectations rather than a downturn? They explore how the curve behaved in similar post-tightening cycles and what bond investors are pricing in right now. No hot takes, just a clear-eyed look at one of the most watched indicators in macro. #YieldCurve #TreasuryYields #FederalReserve #KevinWarsh #BondMarket #MacroEconomics #SteepeningCurve #Inflation #LaborMarket #FOMC #Economics #MacroTuesdays #Fexingo #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Investing #Bonds #FedPolicy Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The new Fed chairman's first meeting has already shifted how the bond market prices rate cuts. Lucas and Luna break down the five takeaways from Kevin Warsh's debut FOMC gathering on June 18, 2026, and what the Treasury curve's recent moves tell us about where inflation and growth are actually headed. The ten-year yield sits at 4.45 percent, the two-year at 3.66, and the spread has steepened aggressively. Lucas explains why Warsh's emphasis on financial conditions—not just inflation—changes the game for rate expectations, and why the market is now pricing in a cut later this year even as core PCE holds above target. Luna points out that the market might be getting ahead of itself. A focused look at the signal in the curve and the new chair's communications strategy. #KevinWarsh #FederalReserve #FOMC #RateCutPricing #BondMarket #YieldCurve #TenYearYield #TreasuryYields #MonetaryPolicy2026 #FinancialConditions #CorePCE #InflationOutlook #MarketExpectations #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroTuesdays #FedChairman Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Kevin Warsh just chaired his first FOMC meeting as Fed chair. Lucas and Luna break down what Warsh's policy leanings mean for the path of interest rates — and specifically for the housing market. With the ten-year Treasury yield at 4.46 percent and the effective Fed funds rate at 3.63 percent, the bond market is signaling something different than the dot plots of the past. Lucas explains why Warsh might prioritize financial stability over inflation-fighting in a way that could keep mortgage rates elevated. Luna questions whether that's actually the right read, given the steepening yield curve they're seeing. They hit on the key data: the unemployment rate is 4.3 percent, JOLTS surged to 7.6 million, and real GDP growth just ticked up to 1.6 percent. This episode is for anyone wondering if that dream home gets cheaper anytime soon. #KevinWarsh #FederalReserve #InterestRates #MortgageRates #HousingMarket #FOMC #MonetaryPolicy #BondMarket #YieldCurve #TenYearTreasury #FedFundsRate #Economics #Macro #Housing #RealEstate #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroTuesdays Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Lucas and Luna unpack the recent steepening of the yield curve, which has many investors wondering if it signals recession or something else entirely. With the 2-year yield at 3.65% and the 10-year at 4.46%, the spread has widened to 81 basis points—far from the inverted territory of 2023-2024. But Lucas argues this steepening is driven not by recession fears but by term premium repricing as the Fed holds rates steady and inflation expectations remain anchored. They discuss how the current curve compares to past steepenings, what it means for bond investors, and why the typical recession signal may be less reliable this cycle. Grounded in specific data from June 2026, this episode offers a clear framework for understanding one of the most watched indicators in macro markets. #YieldCurve #Steepening #BondMarket #FederalReserve #TermPremium #RecessionSignal #TreasuryYields #MacroEconomics #InflationExpectations #FedPolicy #InterestRates #Economy #Investing #BondInvesting #CurveSteepener #EconomicIndicators #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Lucas and Luna explore the surprising message behind the steepening yield curve in June 2026. With the ten-year Treasury yield at 4.43 percent and the two-year at 3.63 percent, the spread has widened to eighty basis points—a level that historically signals economic optimism. But this time, bond markets are pricing in sticky inflation and a Fed that may stay higher for longer, not a booming recovery. The hosts dive into why the curve is steepening even as real GDP growth runs at just 1.6 percent, what the ten-year breakeven inflation rate of 2.29 percent tells us about investor expectations, and whether this steepening is a genuine vote of confidence or a warning sign about fiscal risks. A must-listen for anyone trying to decode the macro signals beneath the surface. #YieldCurve #SteepeningCurve #BondMarket #TreasuryYields #TenYearYield #TwoYearYield #FederalReserve #InflationExpectations #BreakevenRate #RealGDP #EconomicGrowth #MonetaryPolicy #FiscalPolicy #MacroEconomics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #MarketSignals Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The Russell 2000 is up 4% in five days while the S&P 500 treads water. Lucas and Luna dig into the rotation from large-cap growth to small-cap value, examining what the data says about economic breadth, Fed policy, and whether this rally has legs. With the ten-year yield falling to 4.43% and the two-year at 3.63%, the flattening yield curve is sending a nuanced message. They look at JOLTS job openings surging to 7.6 million and what it means for small business hiring. Plus, a quick note on how listener support keeps the show ad-free. #Russell2000 #SmallCaps #MarketRotation #YieldCurve #FederalReserve #JOLTS #JobOpenings #SmallBusiness #ValueStocks #GrowthStocks #EconomicBreadth #TreasuryYields #MacroTuesdays #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #Investing #StockMarket Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The effective Fed funds rate has dipped to 3.63 percent, down from 3.64 percent in May, while the daily rate sits at 3.62 percent. Lucas and Luna examine what this subtle shift means for monetary policy in June 2026, against a backdrop of CPI at 4.2 percent and a yield curve that's steepening. They drill into the interest on reserve balances rate — currently at 3.65 percent — and why the gap between IORB and the funds rate signals whether the Fed is truly in control. The conversation also touches on how the ECB's surprise rate hike and rising wholesale inflation complicate the Fed's path. A must-listen for anyone tracking the real pulse of central bank policy this summer. #FedFundsRate #MonetaryPolicy #FederalReserve #InterestRates #IORB #YieldCurve #CPI #Inflation #ECB #CentralBanking #Economics #Macro #Liquidity #Reserves #FOMC #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroTuesdays Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

On this episode of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna break down a strange disconnect in financial markets: consumer prices just hit 4.2 percent annual inflation — the highest in three years — yet the ten-year Treasury yield has actually fallen over the past week. They explore the gap between the CPI headline and what bond traders are really pricing in, from the Fed's effective rate at 3.63 percent to the ten-year breakeven inflation rate at 2.31 percent. Lucas explains why the bond market's message might be more forward-looking than the panic in consumer confidence surveys, and whether this divergence is a buy signal or a warning. The episode ties it back to what it means for portfolios in mid-2026, especially with the Nasdaq up nearly 4 percent in five days even as inflation fears dominate headlines. #CPI #Inflation #BondMarket #TreasuryYield #FederalReserve #MacroTuesdays #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #FinancialMarkets #YieldCurve #BreakevenInflation #Nasdaq #RealRates #LucasAndLuna #WeeklyEconomics #PodcastEpisode #MarketDisconnect Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna drill into the surprising 1.1% jump in wholesale prices for May 2026—the biggest monthly gain in over a year. They connect this producer-price surge to the consumer inflation numbers that hit 4.2% annually, and ask whether the Fed's steady hand on rates is enough. With the ten-year breakeven inflation rate creeping up to 2.31%, the hosts examine how energy costs from the Iran conflict are working their way through the supply chain. If you've felt prices rising faster than the official CPI suggests, this episode explains why. No broad recaps—just one concrete data point and what it means for your purchasing power. #WholesaleInflation #PPI #CPI #Inflation2026 #FederalReserve #EnergyCosts #IranConflict #SupplyChain #BreakevenInflation #CorePCE #MacroEconomics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroTuesdays #LucasAndLuna #ProducerPrices #ConsumerPrices #EconomicData Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Episode 51 of Macro Tuesdays with Fexingo digs into the surprising April JOLTS report: job openings jumped to 7.6 million, the highest in over a year. Lucas and Luna explore why openings are soaring while unemployment stays at 4.3 percent, how the surge is concentrated in sectors like hospitality and healthcare, and what the rising quits rate signals about worker confidence. They also connect the dots to May's hot CPI print and the Fed's dilemma. If you find the episode useful, support the show at buy me a coffee dot com slash fexingo. #JOLTS #JobOpenings #LaborMarket #FedPolicy #CPI #QuitsRate #HospitalityJobs #HealthcareJobs #MacroEconomics #Unemployment #WageGrowth #Inflation #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroTuesdays #LucasAndLuna #EconomicData #JobMarket Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The May wholesale inflation print landed at 1.1 percent month-over-month, far above expectations, driven by a surge in energy costs tied to the Iran conflict. Lucas and Luna break down why the Producer Price Index matters more right now than the consumer-side CPI reading of 4.2 percent annual inflation. They trace how wholesale energy gains ripple through delivery surcharges, retail margins, and eventually paychecks — and why the Fed's focus on core PCE may miss the real-time pain small businesses are already feeling. With the ECB hiking rates for the first time since 2023 and the 10-year breakeven inflation rate climbing to 2.31 percent, the hosts explore whether markets are pricing in a persistent supply shock rather than a transient one. Specific data points include the PPI energy component jump, the 10-year yield settling at 4.49 percent, and the divergence between job openings at 7.6 million and initial claims creeping toward 230,000. A sharp, data-driven conversation for anyone trying to read the economy in June 2026. #WholesaleInflation #ProducerPriceIndex #CPI #CorePCE #EnergyCosts #IranConflict #ECB #RateHike #June2026 #InflationOutlook #SupplyShock #JoblessClaims #JOLTS #SmallBusiness #BreakevenRate #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroTuesdays Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Wholesale prices surged 1.1% in May, far more than expected, driven by a spike in energy costs linked to the Iran conflict. Lucas and Luna dig into what this PPI number really means for June CPI, the Fed's next move, and whether the market is misreading the inflation trajectory. They break down why the core PCE — not headline CPI — remains the Fed's true north star, and why the yield curve's recent steepening might actually be a sign of sticky inflation rather than recession. With the Fed funds rate at 3.63% and breakeven inflation rising, this episode connects the dots between producer prices, consumer prices, and central bank policy. No hot takes, just the data. #WholesaleInflation #PPI #CPI #FedPolicy #IranConflict #EnergyPrices #InflationOutlook #CorePCE #YieldCurve #BondMarket #FedFundsRate #MacroEconomics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #InflationData #ProducerPrices #MonetaryPolicy Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna break down the May 2026 wholesale inflation surprise — the Producer Price Index rose 1.1% month-over-month, far above expectations, driven by a surge in energy costs linked to the Iran conflict. They explain why this matters for the consumer price index, which hit 4.2% annual inflation in May, and what it signals about the Fed's path forward. The hosts also connect the wholesale jump to the ECB's first rate hike since 2023 and discuss how persistent energy price shocks could keep inflation sticky. Tune in for a concise, data-driven look at the pipeline pressures threatening the inflation outlook. #WholesaleInflation #PPI #CPI #Inflation #EnergyPrices #IranConflict #ECB #RateHike #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #MacroEconomics #SupplyChain #ProducerPrices #ConsumerPrices #CoreInflation #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The yield curve is steepening again, but this time it's not signaling a recession. Lucas and Luna dig into the mechanics behind the move: the ten-year Treasury yield at 4.49 percent is up while the two-year yield at 3.62 percent is flat, pushing the spread positive after two years of inversion. They explain why this steepening is driven by term premium — investors demanding more compensation for holding long-term bonds amid higher inflation uncertainty and a growing federal deficit — not by expectations of a future rate cut. Using the latest Fed Funds rate of 3.63 percent and Friday's hotter-than-expected wholesale inflation print, they show how the bond market is pricing in stickier inflation rather than a slowing economy. The episode also touches on what this means for mortgage rates and corporate borrowing costs. Finally, Lucas and Luna briefly note that listener support via Buy Me a Coffee helps keep the show ad-free and independent. #YieldCurve #Steepening #TreasuryYields #TermPremium #FederalReserve #Inflation #BondMarket #RecessionSignal #TenYearYield #TwoYearYield #FedFundsRate #WholesaleInflation #PPI #EconomicOutlook #MacroEconomics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroTuesdays Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The Producer Price Index jumped 1.1% in May, double expectations, with energy costs spiking amid the Iran conflict. Lucas and Luna break down why this wholesale inflation signal matters more than usual for the Fed's next move—and what it could mean for the June CPI print. They connect the wholesale price surge to rising jobless claims, sticky core PCE, and the ECB's first rate hike since 2023. If you've been watching CPI at 4.2% and wondering whether the Fed has room to cut in 2026, this episode gives you the leading indicator to track. #ProducerPriceIndex #WholesaleInflation #PPISurge #EnergyCosts #IranConflict #CPI #CorePCE #FederalReserve #InterestRates #ECB #JoblessClaims #Inflation2026 #EconomicData #Macro #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroTuesdays Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The European Central Bank just raised interest rates for the first time since 2023, citing surging energy costs tied to geopolitical instability. In this episode, Lucas and Luna break down why the ECB moved now, how it diverges from the Fed's current pause, and what the widening policy gap means for global inflation and currency markets. They examine the wholesale price spike in the US, the 4.2% CPI print, and the bond market's muted reaction. With the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.46% and breakeven inflation holding at 2.34%, markets are sending a nuanced signal. This is not a rerun of 2022. The hosts connect the dots between energy shocks, central bank credibility, and the real economy — including why job openings surging back above 7.6 million doesn't change the Fed's calculus. A focused, data-rich conversation for anyone trying to understand where inflation is headed next. #ECB #RateHike #Inflation #EnergyPrices #GlobalEconomy #CentralBanks #Fed #BondMarket #WholesalePrices #CPI #Economics #Podcast #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroTuesdays #InterestRates #Geopolitics #CurrencyMarkets Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

With CPI hitting 4.2% in May — the highest in three years — headlines are screaming inflation. But Lucas and Luna argue the real story is quieter: Core PCE, the Fed's preferred gauge, is running at just 2.8% annualized over the past three months. They unpack why the gap between CPI and PCE matters, how services inflation is stickier than goods deflation, and what the 10-year breakeven rate of 2.34% signals about market expectations. Plus, the bond market's reaction — 10-year Treasury yield at 4.54% — suggests traders are pricing in a higher neutral rate, not panic. A focused look at which inflation measure actually drives policy decisions. #CorePCE #CPI #Inflation #FederalReserve #BondMarket #TreasuryYields #10YearBreakeven #MonetaryPolicy #EconomicData #ServicesInflation #MayCPI2026 #MacroTuesdays #Fexingo #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #FedPolicy #InflationExpectations Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

With the S&P 500 down 4% in a week and headline CPI hitting 4.2% annually, Lucas and Luna unpack why this inflation reading feels different than the 2022 surge. They drill into the bond market signal: the ten-year yield climbing to 4.54% while breakeven inflation is actually falling. The hosts break down how the composition of inflation matters more for equities than the headline number, and why services-driven CPI is a tougher problem for the Fed than goods-driven inflation was. A focused macroeconomic conversation for anyone wondering why markets are selling off despite a still-low 4.3% unemployment rate. #CPI #Inflation #BondMarket #StockMarket #FederalReserve #TenYearYield #BreakevenInflation #ServicesInflation #MarketSelloff #S&P500 #MacroEconomics #Economy #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroTuesdays #EconomicData #MonetaryPolicy #ConsumerPrices Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The headline unemployment rate sits at 4.3 percent, and the overall labor market looks healthy. But inside the data, small businesses are trimming payrolls at a pace not seen since the pandemic. Lucas and Luna dig into the latest NFIB survey and ADP payroll breakdown to understand why Main Street is pulling back while corporate America keeps hiring. They explore the role of rising interest rates, tighter bank lending, and a shift in where job creation is concentrated. Plus, a brief behind-the-scenes look at how listener support keeps the podcast ad-free. #SmallBusiness #LaborMarket #NFIB #ADP #JobCuts #MainStreet #InterestRates #BankLending #Hiring #Payrolls #Unemployment #FederalReserve #MacroTuesdays #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicData #JobCreation Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Initial jobless claims jumped to 225,000 in late May, the highest level since early this year, even as the unemployment rate holds at 4.3 percent. Lucas and Luna unpack what rising claims might be telling us that headline payrolls aren't — including emerging weakness in interest-rate-sensitive sectors like construction and manufacturing. They also discuss how the Fed's current policy stance interacts with sticky services inflation and what Wednesday's CPI report could reveal. Plus, a look at why markets are pricing in rate cuts later this year despite a still-tight labor market. #JoblessClaims #Unemployment #FederalReserve #InterestRates #CPI #Inflation #LaborMarket #EconomicData #Construction #Manufacturing #RecessionSignal #MacroEconomics #FOMC #FedPolicy #PolicyLag #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroTuesdays Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

New York Fed survey data shows household financial concerns hitting their highest level since July 2022, despite a still-low 4.3% unemployment rate. Lucas and Luna dig into the disconnect: why are consumers more anxious than the headline jobs numbers suggest? They explore the role of persistent inflation, dwindling pandemic savings, and rising long-term unemployment. With the ten-year breakeven inflation rate at 2.35% and core CPI still above 3%, the hosts ask whether the Fed's pause is justified. Plus: a look at how proposed tariffs on 60 economies could add to consumer uncertainty. This episode connects the dots between macro data and household reality. #HouseholdFinances #NewYorkFedSurvey #ConsumerConfidence #Inflation #Unemployment #LongTermUnemployment #FederalReserve #CoreCPI #Tariffs #MacroEconomics #EconomicOutlook #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroTuesdays #Economics #Podcast #FinancialAnxiety #PandemicSavings Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Unemployment is 4.3 percent and job openings surged to 7.6 million. So why is long-term unemployment—people out of work for 27 weeks or more—spiking to levels not seen since the 2010-2014 recovery? Lucas and Luna dig into the New York Fed's latest Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows household financial worries at their highest since July 2022. They connect the dots between the JOLTS data, the rise in long-term jobless claims, and what it means for workers losing skills and bargaining power. A sharp, data-driven look at the mismatch the headline numbers are hiding. #LongTermUnemployment #JoblessClaims #JOLTS #NewYorkFed #ConsumerExpectations #LaborMarket #UnemploymentRate #EconomicData #MacroEconomics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicsPodcast #MacroTuesdays #JobMarket #SkillsMismatch #HouseholdFinances #FedPolicy #LaborForce Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Lucas and Luna dig into a growing divergence in the labor market: even though the headline unemployment rate has held at 4.3 percent for months, the number of people filing for unemployment benefits has jumped sharply. They explore what initial jobless claims at 225,000 and a surge in long-term unemployment really signal about the health of the U.S. economy. Using fresh data from early June 2026, the hosts explain how two Fed metrics—claims and unemployment—are telling different stories about worker distress, and what that means for the rate-cut timeline. If you've been confused by strong payroll numbers but rising anxiety in hiring, this episode connects the dots. #JoblessClaims #LongTermUnemployment #LaborMarket #FederalReserve #UnemploymentRate #InitialClaims #EconomicData #FOMC #RateCuts #MacroTuesdays #FexingoBusiness #USEconomy #Employment #HiringSlowdown #StructuralUnemployment #BusinessPodcast #EconomicTrends #LaborForce Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Initial jobless claims jumped to 225,000 in late May, up from 212,000 the prior week — the highest level in over a year. Meanwhile, the headline unemployment rate sits at 4.3% and hasn't budged. Lucas and Luna dig into what's really happening beneath the surface: a labor market that looks stable in the monthly numbers but is showing cracks in the weekly data. They explore how rising layoffs in tech and services are being masked by still-strong hiring in healthcare and government, and what the divergence between claims and the unemployment rate tells us about the economy's direction. Plus, a quick word on how listener support keeps the show ad-free and independent. #JoblessClaims #UnemploymentRate #LaborMarket #WeeklyClaims #Layoffs #Hiring #TechLayoffs #ServiceSector #HealthcareJobs #GovernmentJobs #FederalReserve #EconomicData #Macro #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroTuesdays #LaborEconomics Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The headline unemployment rate sits at 4.3 percent, but a hidden shift is underway: long-term unemployment — people out of work for 27 weeks or more — is climbing sharply. On Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna dig into the latest labor market data to explain why this divergence matters more than the top-line jobs number. They break down the May JOLTS report showing job openings surging to 7.6 million, the disconnect between hiring and wage growth, and what the rising share of long-term jobless means for Fed policy and the broader economy. Using fresh data from the June 7, 2026 labor market snapshot, they explore whether the labor market is really as tight as it looks — and why the bond market might be pricing in a different story. Specific numbers, real policy implications, no filler. #LongTermUnemployment #LaborMarket #JOLTS #JobsReport #FedPolicy #UnemploymentRate #EconomicData #MacroTuesdays #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #LaborForce #WageGrowth #JobOpenings #MayJobs #HiddenUnemployment #StructuralUnemployment #LaborMarketDivergence Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

On this episode of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna break down the recent steepening of the yield curve—the 10-year Treasury yield is now 4.54 percent while the 2-year sits at 4.28 percent, widening the spread to 26 basis points. They argue that this steepening, often a classic recession warning when the curve inverts, is actually a sign of something different in mid-2026. With the Fed holding rates steady at 3.63 percent and the 10-year breakeven inflation rate flat at 2.36 percent, the hosts explain why bond markets are pricing in a 'softish' landing rather than a crash. They also connect the steepening to the recent surge in job openings to 7.6 million and the drop in the Nasdaq by 5.1 percent over five days, showing how sectors are rotating away from tech and into value. No doom-mongering—just a clear look at what the bond market is really telling us about growth and inflation expectations. #YieldCurve #BondMarket #TreasuryYields #FederalReserve #SteepeningCurve #RecessionSignals #MacroEconomics #InterestRates #JobOpenings #Nasdaq #TechSelloff #SoftLanding #InflationExpectations #EconomicData #PolicyOutlook #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroTuesdays Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

This episode of Macro Tuesdays drills into the ongoing yield curve inversion — the 2-year Treasury yield is at 4.28%, the 10-year at 4.54%, keeping the spread negative since mid-2022. Lucas and Luna discuss why this historically reliable recession signal hasn't yet delivered a downturn, whether the lag is different this time, and what the recent flattening of the curve means for growth expectations. With the S&P 500 down 2.8% in a week and the Nasdaq off 5.1%, the hosts examine whether markets are finally pricing in the slowdown the yield curve has been signaling. They also touch on the jobs report due Friday and how a strong labor market keeps defying the inversion's usual logic. #YieldCurveInversion #RecessionRisk #TreasuryYields #BondMarket #FedPolicy #EconomicIndicators #JobsReport #StockMarket #S&P500 #Nasdaq #2YearYield #10YearYield #MacroEconomics #Inflation #LaborMarket #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroTuesdays Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

With the May jobs report coming Friday, most analysts are focused on the headline payroll number. Lucas and Luna dig into the data no one is watching: the surge in long-term unemployment that hit 1.8 million in April, even as job openings rebounded to 7.6 million. They explain why the hidden shift in labor market composition matters more than the topline, and how it connects to the Fed's next move. Plus, the bond market is sending a signal about wage growth that contradicts the official numbers. A data-heavy episode for anyone trying to read between the lines of the monthly jobs report. #JobsReport #LongTermUnemployment #LaborMarket #FederalReserve #BondMarket #WageGrowth #JOLTS #InitialJoblessClaims #Economics #MacroTuesdays #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #LucasAndLuna #May2026 #UnemploymentRate #ADPPayroll #TreasuryYields #InflationExpectations Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The May jobs report is coming Friday, but beneath the headline payroll numbers lies a troubling trend: long-term unemployment is surging. While the overall jobless rate holds at 4.3 percent, the number of workers out of work for 27 weeks or more has jumped sharply. Lucas and Luna dig into the latest data, including the JOLTS report showing job openings surged to 7.6 million in April, and explain why the composition of unemployment matters more than the rate itself. They explore the hidden costs for workers' skills, wages, and the broader economy, and what this means for the Fed's rate path. No hype, just the numbers and what they signal. #LongTermUnemployment #JobsReport #LaborMarket #Economics #FederalReserve #JOLTS #Unemployment #WageGrowth #Macro #Economy #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Podcast #EconomicData #MayJobs #LaborForce #SkillErosion #Hiring Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Initial jobless claims jumped to 225,000 in the last week of May 2026, up from 212,000 the prior week — the largest one-week spike in over a year. Most analysts are brushing it off as noise ahead of Friday's payrolls report. But Lucas and Luna dig into why this number, paired with the surge in long-term unemployment, might be the first real crack in a labor market that has looked bulletproof. They explore what the claims data actually captures, how it compares to the JOLTS openings surge to 7.6 million, and whether the Fed's next move depends more on the margins than the averages. A focused, number-driven conversation for anyone trying to read the economy in real time. #JoblessClaims #LaborMarket #FederalReserve #Unemployment #InitialClaims #LongTermUnemployment #JOLTS #Payrolls #ADP #EconomicData #RecessionSignals #Macro #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroTuesdays #WeeklyEconomicNews #MarketMovingData Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna dig into the surprising jump in job openings to 7.6 million in April—the highest in nearly two years. But they argue this isn't the unalloyed good news it might seem. They connect the surge to the recent ADP payroll report showing 122,000 private-sector jobs added in May, weaker than the openings spike suggests. The hosts explain how the composition of openings—concentrated in low-wage sectors like leisure and hospitality—points to persistent churn rather than robust demand. They also tie in the bond market's reaction: the 10-year yield rising to 4.49 percent, signaling that the Fed may hold rates higher for longer. Luna challenges Lucas on whether the JOLTS data is becoming less reliable, and they discuss what this means for the labor market going into the second half of 2026. #JobOpenings #JOLTS #LaborMarket #ADP #Payrolls #FederalReserve #InterestRates #10YearYield #EconomicData #MacroEconomics #BondMarket #Inflation #LucasAndLuna #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroTuesdays #Economics #SmallCaps Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Private payrolls came in at 122,000 in May, beating expectations. But the bond market barely flinched. The 10-year yield actually ticked down on the news. Lucas and Luna break down why strong jobs data isn't moving yields — and what that says about the market's real concern. They dig into the disconnect between headline payrolls and the bond market's focus on inflation expectations, the Iran war premium fading, and the 10-year breakeven rate slipping to 2.39 percent. If the labor market is resilient and inflation is sticky, why aren't yields climbing? The answer may lie in what traders are pricing in for growth — and it's not what you'd expect. This episode drills into one specific number and what it reveals about the macro picture in early June 2026. #ADPPayrolls #BondMarket #10YearYield #MacroTuesdays #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #Inflation #LaborMarket #FederalReserve #IranWar #BreakevenRate #MarketDisconnect #FixedIncome #RealGDP #CorePCE #JobGrowth #YieldCurve Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The April JOLTS report showed job openings jumping to 7.6 million, the highest in nearly two years. Lucas and Luna dig into what's behind the surge—sector by sector—and why it doesn't necessarily mean the labor market is overheating. They examine the split between white-collar and blue-collar openings, the role of energy inflation in reshaping hiring, and what the data says about the Fed's next move. Plus, they connect the dots to the falling 10-year yield and sticky core PCE, asking whether the job market is actually stronger or just more distorted. A must-listen for anyone trying to read the tea leaves on rates, recession, and the war-driven economy. #JOLTS #JobOpenings #LaborMarket #FederalReserve #Inflation #CorePCE #10YearYield #EnergyInflation #IranWar #Hiring #WhiteCollar #BlueCollar #EconomicData #Macro #RateCuts #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroTuesdays Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna dig into the latest JOLTS data for April 2026, which showed job openings surging to 7.6 million—the highest in nearly two years. They explore why this spike is happening despite softening consumer sentiment and sticky inflation, and what it means for the Fed's rate path. Lucas breaks down the composition of the openings: which sectors are driving the rebound, and why the hospitality and health care industries are leading the charge. Luna challenges whether this is a genuine labor market strength signal or a statistical artifact from seasonal adjustments and changing quit rates. They also touch on the Iran war's indirect effect on energy-sector hiring and how the broader macro picture—falling long-term yields alongside rising job openings—is creating a confusing signal for investors. The conversation closes with a forward-looking question: if openings keep rising but hiring stays flat, is the economy creating a 'phantom labor market'? #JOLTS #JobOpenings #LaborMarket #FederalReserve #Macroeconomics #Inflation #IranWar #EnergySector #Hospitality #Healthcare #BondMarket #TenYearYield #ConsumerSentiment #April2026 #EconomicData #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroTuesdays Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In Episode 26 of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna unpack a puzzle in the April JOLTS report: job openings dropped to 6.87 million, the lowest since early 2021, yet layoffs remain low and hiring barely budged. They explore the 'Great Reshuffling' narrative — workers finally settling in — and what it means for wage growth, Fed policy, and the odds of a soft landing. With the unemployment rate at 4.3% and initial jobless claims creeping up, the hosts question whether the labor market is genuinely cooling or just normalizing after two years of chaos. They also discuss how falling quits rates signal less confidence among workers, and why the Fed sees this data as validating a 'wait and see' approach on rate cuts. Specific data points include the 3.6 million quits in March versus 3.8 million a year earlier, and the 1.1 job openings per unemployed worker — down from 2:1 at the peak. #JOLTS #JobOpenings #LaborMarket #FederalReserve #WageGrowth #GreatReshuffling #QuitsRate #SoftLanding #Unemployment #EconomicData #Hiring #MacroTuesdays #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #Podcast #WeeklyEconomicNews #MarketData Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The economy added 115,000 jobs in April and the unemployment rate held at 4.3 percent, but JOLTS data shows job openings have dropped by 56,000 in a single month. Lucas and Luna dig into what's really happening: companies are hiring less aggressively but not laying off workers. They explore the 'hold steady' strategy many employers are using, how it's different from past slowdowns, and what it means for wage growth and the Fed's next move. If you've seen conflicting headlines about the job market, this episode gives you the one number that explains the disconnect. #JOLTS #LaborMarket #JobOpenings #Employment #FederalReserve #WageGrowth #EconomicData #MacroEconomics #FOMC #UnemploymentRate #NonfarmPayrolls #JobsReport #HiringSlowdown #LaborShortage #EconomicIndicators #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroTuesdays Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Lucas and Luna dig into why energy inflation in 2026 is behaving differently from previous oil shocks. With the Iran conflict adding $450 to the average household's monthly bills, core PCE holding at 3.3 percent, and 10-year breakevens actually falling, they explore how the pass-through to core inflation has changed. Lucas points to the rise of renewable capacity and a more services-heavy economy as structural shifts that are muting the second-round effects. They also discuss what this means for the Fed's rate path and why bond markets are pricing lower long-term inflation expectations despite near-term price pressure. #EnergyInflation #IranWar #CorePCE #BreakevenInflation #FederalReserve #Inflation #RenewableEnergy #ConsumerSpending #BondMarket #SupplyChain #ServicesEconomy #MonetaryPolicy #EconomicData #MacroEconomics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroTuesdays #LucasAndLuna Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The US economy added jobs in April and the unemployment rate remains low at 4.3 percent, yet households are drawing down pandemic-era savings at an accelerating pace. In this episode of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna unpack the paradox: how a solid labor market coexists with shrinking personal savings, rising credit card debt, and persistent inflation. They examine the latest data on nominal GDP growth, the Fed's favored core PCE index at 3.3 percent, and the impact of the Iran war energy surcharge. Using the personal saving rate as a key lens, they discuss why consumers feel worse than the headline numbers suggest, and what this means for the Fed's rate path and the broader economy. Tune in for a focused look at the disconnect between macro indicators and household financial reality. #HouseholdSavings #PersonalSavingRate #LaborMarket #CorePCE #IranWar #EnergyInflation #FedPolicy #ConsumerSpending #CreditCardDebt #MacroTuesdays #Economics #Inflation #GDP #Unemployment #Disinflation #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #WeeklyMacro Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna unpack a counterintuitive signal in the bond market: the ten-year Treasury yield has dropped to 4.45 percent even as core PCE inflation remains sticky at 3.3 percent. They explore why falling long-term yields might actually reflect a growing disinflation bet by institutional investors, not a recession panic. Key data points include the ten-year breakeven inflation rate sliding to 2.38 percent, the Fed funds effective rate holding at 3.64 percent, and the yield curve steepening as two-year yields barely budge. Lucas argues the market is pricing in a softish landing where inflation gradually eases without a crash, while Luna questions whether the Iran war energy surcharge could reignite inflation expectations. They also discuss what this means for the Fed's next moves and for portfolio positioning. No ads, just macro analysis you can use. #MacroTuesdays #BondMarket #TreasuryYields #Disinflation #CorePCE #FederalReserve #BreakevenRate #YieldCurve #Inflation #InterestRates #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroEconomics #InvestmentStrategy #IranWar #EnergyPrices #MarketSignals Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Lucas and Luna break down the new data showing the Iran conflict is costing the average US household $450 more per month on gas and energy. They explore how this energy surcharge is feeding into core inflation, why the Fed is stuck between fighting inflation and protecting growth, and what the recent drop in the 10-year breakeven rate tells us about market expectations. With real GDP still growing but core PCE at 3.3%, the hosts discuss whether the economy can absorb this shock without tipping into recession. A focused look at one specific number and what it means for your wallet and the macro outlook. #IranWar #EnergyInflation #CorePCE #FederalReserve #Inflation #GasPrices #HouseholdFinances #Macroeconomics #BondMarket #BreakevenRate #GDPGrowth #InterestRates #ConsumerSpending #Geopolitics #RecessionRisk #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In episode 20 of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna break down the hidden economic impact of the Iran war on American consumers. With energy inflation more persistent than expected, the average U.S. household is paying an extra $450 annually on gas and utilities. They explore how this 'double scar' from past inflation shocks and geopolitical instability is reshaping spending patterns, why the Fed's preferred core PCE gauge still shows 3.3% inflation, and what it means for rate policy through mid-2026. Using fresh data from May 30, 2026, including the 10-year breakeven rate at 2.39% and the Fed funds rate stuck at 3.62%, they connect the dots between oil prices, consumer sentiment, and the bond market's mixed signals. No fluff—just a clear-eyed look at the real cost of conflict on your wallet. #IranWar #EnergyInflation #ConsumerEconomy #FedPolicy #CorePCE #HouseholdSpending #GeopoliticalRisk #GasPrices #Inflation2026 #Macroeconomics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroTuesdays #LucasAndLuna #EconomicData #BondMarket #FederalReserve #CostOfLiving Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Lucas and Luna dig into a puzzle that's been bugging bond traders all week: the 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 4.45 percent even as the core PCE price index came in at 3.3 percent annualized — exactly the kind of sticky inflation that should push yields higher. They look at the data: job openings falling to 6.9 million, initial jobless claims creeping up to 215,000, and the Fed funds rate stuck at 3.65 percent. Lucas argues the bond market is pricing in a growth scare, not an inflation panic, and that the real story is the labor market softening beneath the surface. Luna pushes back, asking whether the market is getting ahead of itself. They also discuss what this means for the equity rally, with the S&P 500 at 7,580 and the Nasdaq up 2.3 percent in five days. Along the way, they mention how listener support keeps the show ad-free at buy me a coffee dot com slash fexingo. #TreasuryYield #BondMarket #CorePCE #Inflation #FederalReserve #LaborMarket #JOLTS #JoblessClaims #GrowthScare #S&P500 #Nasdaq #StockMarket #Macro #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroTuesdays #Finance Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The Fed's preferred inflation gauge just landed at 3.3 percent annualized — right on consensus — but the bond market rallied anyway. Lucas and Luna break down why a 'no surprise' number actually shifted expectations for rate cuts later this year. They drill into the 10-year yield's sharp drop to 4.45 percent, the steepening yield curve, and what Fed officials like Kashkari and Goolsbee are signaling about the inflation fight. Plus, how consumer-facing stocks are pricing in a different reality from what the macro data shows. A focused look at one number and the chain reaction it set off across markets. #CorePCE #InflationData #FederalReserve #BondMarket #RateCuts #10YearYield #YieldCurve #MacroEconomics #FedPolicy #MonetaryPolicy #EquityMarkets #ConsumerStocks #EconomicData #Kashkari #Goolsbee #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroTuesdays Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

On Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna dig into the 10-year breakeven inflation rate, which has dropped to 2.39% even as core PCE inflation runs at 3.3%. They explore what the bond market's inflation expectations signal about the Fed's next move, why breakevens diverging from actual CPI matters for rate policy, and how investors should read the gap between the two-year Treasury yield at 3.59% and the ten-year at 4.45%. With unemployment at 4.3% and JOLTS job openings declining, the hosts debate whether the Fed can cut rates without reigniting inflation. Tune in for a data-driven breakdown of the breakeven puzzle. #BreakevenInflation #FederalReserve #BondMarket #InflationExpectations #CorePCE #CPI #TreasuryYields #InterestRates #JOLTS #Unemployment #MacroEconomics #FOMC #Economics #Business #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroTuesdays #Podcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The Russell 2000 has surged 3.6% over the past five days while the S&P 500 gained just 1.2%. Lucas and Luna drill into what's driving this rotation: falling long-term yields, a stabilizing labor market, and the end of mega-cap tech dominance. They discuss why small caps historically lead after rate-cut pauses, how the 10-year Treasury yield dropping below 4.5% is fueling the move, and whether this rally has legs. Plus, they connect the dots to consumer sentiment hitting a record low and what that means for the broader economy. A focused look at the regime change happening under the surface of May's market. #Russell2000 #SmallCaps #RateCuts #BondYields #StockMarket #EconomicData #LaborMarket #ConsumerSentiment #FedPolicy #Rotation #TreasuryYields #May2026 #Macro #Economics #InvestmentStrategy #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #TuesdayMacro Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The Russell 2000 has surged 3.6% in the past week while the S&P 500 gained only 1.2%. Lucas and Luna explore what this small-cap outperformance signals about the market's next phase. With the Fed on hold at 3.64% and the yield curve flattening as long-term rates drop, investors are rotating out of mega-cap tech into value and domestic cyclicals. The hosts discuss why small caps often lead at turning points, the role of Iran war uncertainty pushing money into US-focused assets, and what it means for portfolios. They also examine the disconnect between record-low consumer sentiment and a 2% real GDP growth rate, questioning whether the consumer is actually cracking or just anxious. A data-driven look at regime change without the hype. #SmallCaps #Russell2000 #MarketRotation #Fed #YieldCurve #ConsumerSentiment #USMarkets #Investing #EconomicData #StockMarket #GDP #Inflation #PortfolioStrategy #RegimeChange #ValueStocks #Macro #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Consumer sentiment hit a fresh record low in May, even as the stock market keeps grinding higher. Lucas and Luna unpack the disconnect: record-low sentiment versus a roaring Russell 2000. They look at the specific forces driving the divergence — inflation expectations at their highest in decades, a labor market that is cooling but not collapsing, and a consumer base that is feeling the pinch despite strong nominal GDP. The hosts discuss what this means for the Fed's policy path and whether the market is pricing in a recession that may not come. With the ten-year yield falling and small caps surging, the question is whether this is a classic mid-cycle rotation or the calm before a storm. One concrete takeaway: the gap between consumer confidence and market performance has rarely been this wide outside of a recession. #ConsumerSentiment #RecordLow #StockMarket #Russell2000 #Inflation #FederalReserve #YieldCurve #TenYearTreasury #SmallCaps #EconomicData #Disconnect #RecessionSignals #LucasAndLuna #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroTuesdays #EconomicNews #MarketMoves Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The Russell 2000 just jumped 6.1% in a week while the S&P 500 lagged at 2.2%. Lucas and Luna drill into what's driving the rotation from mega-cap tech into small-cap value. They unpack the numbers: the two-year Treasury yield dropping 10 basis points, the Fed holding rates steady at 3.64%, and the JOLTS data showing job openings slipping to 6.87 million. The conversation explores whether this is a genuine broadening of the market or just a temporary catch-up trade. They also touch on the consumer sentiment record low and what it means for small-cap earnings. Plus, a brief word on how listener support keeps the show ad-free. #Russell2000 #SmallCaps #MarketRotation #FederalReserve #TreasuryYields #JOLTS #ConsumerSentiment #StockMarket #ValueStocks #GrowthStocks #Economics #Business #Podcast #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroTuesdays #Investing #MarketData Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

On this episode of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna examine how the AI economy is shifting labor market dynamics, focusing on wage growth for blue-collar workers. With average hourly earnings rising to $37.40 and job openings declining, they explore whether automation is complementing or replacing workers. The hosts dig into the latest JOLTS data and nonfarm payrolls, asking if the blue-collar boom is sustainable. They also discuss the geopolitical risks from Iran tensions and the Fed's cautious stance as inflation remains sticky. A data-driven conversation about the real economy, not the headlines. #AIEconomy #BlueCollar #WageGrowth #JOLTS #NonfarmPayrolls #Inflation #FederalReserve #LaborMarket #Automation #Geopolitics #IranWar #EconomicData #BusinessPodcast #FexingoBusiness #MacroTuesdays #Economics #JobOpenings #HourlyEarnings Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The inverted yield curve has been screaming recession for over two years, yet the U.S. economy keeps growing. Lucas and Luna dig into why the traditional yield-curve indicator may be broken in a world of quantitative tightening, large fiscal deficits, and a Fed funds rate stuck at 3.64 percent. Using live data from May 25, 2026 — including the 10-year Treasury at 4.56 percent and the 2-year at 4.26 percent — they unpack the role of term premiums, the carry trade, and why bond markets are sending mixed signals. Whether you're an investor trying to read the macro tea leaves or just wondering why every recession call has been wrong, this episode gives you a framework for understanding what the yield curve is actually saying — and what it's not. #YieldCurve #Inversion #Recession #BondMarket #FederalReserve #TermPremium #TreasuryYields #EconomicIndicators #MacroEconomics #Investing #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #LucasAndLuna #MacroTuesdays #BondVigilantes #QuantitativeTightening #FiscalDeficit #CarryTrade Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo