EPISODE · Jun 26, 2026 · 1H 7M
Iran Will Probably Still Get Nukes – Here’s How
from The World Unpacked · host Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
The U.S. and Israel just fought a second war over Iran's nuclear program—and one of the world's leading nuclear experts says America lost. Iran's uranium stockpile sits fully intact in tunnels too deep to reach, and Tehran walked away with more leverage in nuclear talks. James Acton, a physicist and longtime analyst of Iran’s program, joins host Jon Bateman on The World Unpacked to give a detailed update on this crisis. Has the new supreme leader already decided to build a weapon? How quickly could Iran “break out” or “sneak out” to the bomb? And why does Acton now expect more wars—followed by a nuclear detonation? Host: Follow Jon on X: https://x.com/JonKBateman Guest: James Acton: https://x.com/james_acton32?lang=en
What this episode covers
James Acton gives 50% odds of an Iranian nuke in 3 years and tells U.S. negotiators what to prioritize.
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Iran Will Probably Still Get Nukes – Here’s How
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