How Sectarian Identity Predicts Middle East Politics

Why do Sunni and Shia populations in the same country hold completely different views on Iran, Israel, and the West? This episode unpacks the polling data from Lebanon, Bahrain, and the Gulf to reveal how sectarian identity functions as a political heuristic—shaped not by ancient theology but by decades of repression, proxy conflict, and strategic patronage. With the Iran-Israel shadow war now direct and Gulf states responding along sectarian lines, understanding this mechanism is essential for making sense of the region's biggest geopolitical realignment since the Iranian Revolution.