How the 10-2 Yield Spread Signals Rising Fiscal Risk

In this episode, Lucas and Luna drill into a single number that tells a big story: the 10-year minus 2-year Treasury yield spread is now 38 basis points. That sounds small, but it's a sign that markets are pricing in a long-term debt burden that short-term rate cuts can't fix. Lucas walks through the math: why a flat or rising spread during a rate-cutting cycle is unusual, what it means for the Treasury's borrowing costs, and how the 122.6 percent debt-to-GDP ratio changes the calculus. Luna pushes back with a question about whether this is just a 'term premium' story or something deeper. They compare today to past episodes of fiscal dominance, from the 1980s to the post-2008 era, and ask whether the bond market is finally forcing a choice between growth and solvency. #YieldSpread #TreasuryYields #NationalDebt #FiscalRisk #BondMarket #DebtToGDP #FederalReserve #InterestRates #TermPremium #Economics #FiscalDominance #TenYearYield #TwoYearYield #LucasAndLuna #FexingoEconomics #BusinessPodcast #MacroEconomics #USDebt Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo