How the 10-Year Treasury Yield Found Its Floor at 4.45

This week the 10-year Treasury yield dipped to 4.45 percent, down from 4.48, while the 30-year yield sits at 4.98 percent and the 2-year at 3.99. Lucas and Luna dig into what this flattening yield curve means for bond investors, focusing on whether the long end has found a ceiling. They unpack the role of foreign buyers, especially Japanese institutions, and how the shrinking yield premium over the 3-month T-bill is compressing term premiums. The conversation lands on a concrete strategy: extending duration cautiously while the curve is this flat, and why the risk-reward now tilts toward longer maturities. Specific data points include the IORB rate at 3.65 and the Fed funds rate at 3.62, both acting as an anchor on the short end. The hosts also discuss the recent Berkshire-Taylor Morrison deal as a signal that institutional capital is rotating into real assets partly because bonds still don't offer enough yield to compensate for duration risk. If the 10-year holds 4.45 and the 30-year fails to breach 5%, the narrative shifts from 'higher for longer' to 'peak yields may be behind us.' #TreasuryYield #10YearYield #YieldCurve #BondStrategy #FixedIncome #TermPremium #ForeignBuyers #Japan #BerkshireHathaway #TaylorMorrison #FedFundsRate #IORB #Duration #FexingoBusiness #FinancePodcast #BusinessPodcast #BondInvesting #Macro Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo