How the 3-Month Yield Is Breaking the Curve

Lucas and Luna dig into a puzzling signal in the Treasury market: the 3-month bill yield is holding near 3.78 percent while the 10-year sits at 4.49. That narrow 71-basis-point gap is historically abnormal and suggests the market is pricing in a very different rate path than the Fed's current stance. They walk through what the short end is saying about recession risk, the Fed's next moves, and how this twist connects to the broader fiscal outlook as the national debt crosses 38.5 trillion dollars. A focused look at one overlooked yield-curve corner that might be telling us more than the 10-2 spread. #TreasuryYields #ThreeMonthBills #YieldCurve #FedPolicy #ShortEnd #NationalDebt #BondMarket #RecessionSignal #InterestRates #FiscalPolicy #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #LucasAndLuna #DebtPodcast #MonetaryPolicy #FedFundsRate #Inversion Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo