How the Fed Funds Rate Stays Stuck at 3.63 and What That Means for Bonds

The Fed Funds effective rate has been pinned at 3.63 percent since May, even as the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields climb. In this episode, Lucas and Luna break down why the Fed's interest on reserve balances (IORB) creates a floor under short-term rates, and how that floor is shaping the yield curve today. They walk through the mechanics of the Fed's rate toolkit, what the 3.63 percent level reveals about policy, and why the bond market is starting to price in a different path than the Fed's own dot plot. Plus, a look at how the 3.63 anchor is pulling the 2-year yield higher, and what the 2s10s spread says about recession risk in mid-2026. #FedFundsRate #InterestOnReserveBalances #TreasuryYields #BondMarket #YieldCurve #MonetaryPolicy #CentralBanking #2YearYield #10YearYield #RateFloor #Fed #Economics #FixedIncome #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MarketMechanics #June2026 #RateHikePause Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo