The Bond Market Podcast with Fexingo: Treasuries, Yields, and Fixed Income for Beginners

The Fed Funds effective rate has been pinned at 3.63 percent since May, even as the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields climb. In this episode, Lucas and Luna break down why the Fed's interest on reserve balances (IORB) creates a floor under short-term rates, and how that floor is shaping the yield curve today. They walk through the mechanics of the Fed's rate toolkit, what the 3.63 percent level reveals about policy, and why the bond market is starting to price in a different path than the Fed's own dot plot. Plus, a look at how the 3.63 anchor is pulling the 2-year yield higher, and what the 2s10s spread says about recession risk in mid-2026. #FedFundsRate #InterestOnReserveBalances #TreasuryYields #BondMarket #YieldCurve #MonetaryPolicy #CentralBanking #2YearYield #10YearYield #RateFloor #Fed #Economics #FixedIncome #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MarketMechanics #June2026 #RateHikePause Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In episode 60 of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna explore a remarkable anomaly in the Treasury market in June 2026: the yield curve has been steepening sharply over the past five trading days, but not because the economy is weakening. Instead, long-term yields have dropped faster than short-term yields, compressing the 10-year from 4.47 to 4.43 and the 30-year from 4.97 to 4.90. Meanwhile the 2-year yield barely budged. This type of curve flattening via a long-end rally is historically rare outside of flight-to-safety events. The hosts examine what's driving demand for long-dated Treasuries in a world where the Fed is on hold at 3.63 percent and the new Fed chair Kevin Warsh has signaled a more hawkish stance. They discuss whether this is a genuine repricing of growth expectations or just repositioning ahead of next week's refunding announcement. No recession call, no panic — just a market that is pricing something different than many investors expect. Tune in for a focused, data-rich breakdown of the curve mechanics that matter right now. #YieldCurve #Treasuries #BondMarket #FederalReserve #KevinWarsh #Steepening #Flattening #10YearYield #30YearYield #2YearYield #FixedIncome #Economics #Business #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Podcast #Investing #CurveDynamics Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The Fed held rates steady on June 17, but the real story is the statement itself. Chairman Warsh pared down the language, removed the cutting bias, and refused to give a rate forecast. This episode unpacks why that matters for bond markets right now. We look at the new 10-year yield at 4.43, the 2-year at 4.05, and what the flattening curve signals about the Fed's next move. Lucas and Luna discuss whether the bond market is pricing in a rate hike later this year or settling into a higher plateau. We also explore what Warsh's shift away from easy money means for duration risk. #FedStatementChange #ChairmanWarsh #BondMarket #TreasuryYields #10YearYield #2YearYield #YieldCurve #RateHike #EasyMoney #FederalReserve #June2026 #Economics #FixedIncome #BondPodcast #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MarketAnalysis #MonetaryPolicy Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The federal funds rate has been pinned at 3.63 percent since May, despite inflation cooling and the economy slowing. Lucas and Luna examine why the Fed is holding steady, using the latest data on the 10-year yield at 4.47 percent, the 2-year at 4.07 percent, and the spread between them at 38 basis points. They discuss the Fed's dual mandate, the role of the interest on reserve balances rate at 3.65 percent, and how traders at Kalshi are betting on a more united Fed board under new chair Kevin Warsh. This episode explains the mechanics of the fed funds rate and what a prolonged pause means for bond markets and the broader economy. #FederalFundsRate #FedPause #InterestOnReserves #KevinWarsh #Kalshi #BondMarket #TreasuryYields #YieldCurve #10YearYield #2YearYield #FedPolicy #MonetaryPolicy #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #LucasAndLuna #MarketAnalysis #RateLiftOff Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Episode 57 of The Bond Market Podcast. Lucas and Luna examine a creeping problem in the Treasury market: dwindling depth in the order book even as yields drift lower. Using the latest data from June 17, 2026 — with the 10-year at 4.47 percent and the 30-year holding near 4.97 — they explain why liquidity metrics from bid-ask spreads to dealer inventories all point the same way. Lucas breaks down how post-crisis regulations, balance sheet costs, and the Fed's shrinking footprint have quietly hollowed out the market's plumbing. Luna asks whether ETF growth — funds like TLT and IEF are up on the week — actually masks the problem rather than solves it. A focused look at the structural fragility behind the calm. This is the bond market conversation beginner and intermediate listeners need to hear. #BondMarket #TreasuryYields #MarketLiquidity #FixedIncome #FederalReserve #TLT #IEF #SHY #LQD #HYG #ETF #Finance #Economics #Investing #WallStreet #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #BondMarketPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Lucas and Luna examine why the 30-year Treasury yield has stalled just below 5% despite persistent inflation fears. They explore the role of pension funds and insurance companies as natural buyers, the impact of Fed rate expectations, and what a flattening long-end curve signals about the economy. With the 30-year at 4.97% and the 10-year at 4.48%, they debate whether this ceiling holds or breaks. A must-listen for fixed-income investors trying to read the bond market's message about growth and inflation. #30YearTreasury #YieldCeiling #BondMarket #FixedIncome #TreasuryYields #PensionFunds #InsuranceCompanies #FedRatePause #YieldCurve #LongBonds #TLT #Inflation #EconomicOutlook #InvestmentStrategy #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #BondInvesting Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Episode 55 of The Bond Market Podcast with Fexingo dives into the hidden liquidity crisis gripping Treasury markets as of June 2026. Lucas and Luna anchor the discussion on the 5-year note yield at 4.19%, with the 10-year at 4.47% and the 30-year near 4.97%. They explore how regulatory changes, specifically the CFTC's recent approval of perpetual futures ('perps'), are reshaping dealer balance sheets and market depth. The hosts explain why even modest moves in yields now trigger outsized price swings, what the 10-year/2-year spread of 0.40 tells us about liquidity conditions, and how the new 'perps' market in the US might drain liquidity from traditional Treasuries. A concrete example: the IEF ETF's 0.5% weekly gain despite flat economic data. Listeners learn why the bond market's plumbing matters more than Fed rate moves right now. No ads, listener-supported: buy me a coffee dot com slash fexingo. #BondMarket #TreasuryLiquidity #10YearYield #5YearNote #30YearYield #YieldCurve #CFTC #PerpetualFutures #MarketDepth #FixedIncome #IEF #TLT #BondVolatility #LiquidityCrisis #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #WallStreet Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Episode 54 of The Bond Market Podcast. Lucas and Luna explore a seeming paradox: as inflation fears cool in June 2026, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are seeing strong demand. The hosts explain the mechanics of TIPS, including their principal adjustment and break-even inflation rates. They reference current data—the 10-year yield at 4.47%, the TIPS ETF (TIP) up 0.3% in a week, and breakeven rates falling to 2.1%. They discuss two key drivers: real yield hunting (TIPS offer a 2.1% real yield) and the Federal Reserve's policy path (rate cuts would boost the appeal of TIPS' inflation protection). They also touch on how institutional investors, including pension funds, use TIPS for liability matching. The episode ends with a forward-looking question about whether TIPS demand will persist if recession fears mount. A quick donation segment for the ad-free podcast is included early on. #TIPS #TreasuryInflationProtectedSecurities #Inflation #BondMarket #RealYield #FederalReserve #BreakevenInflation #TIP #ETFs #FixedIncome #PortfolioStrategy #PensionFunds #LiabilityDrivenInvesting #Economics #Finance #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Investing Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Lucas and Luna dive into a quiet but telling signal from the corporate bond market: investment-grade spreads have tightened to levels that historically precede an economic deceleration. Using live data from June 2026 — with the 10-year Treasury at 4.45 percent and the 30-year near 4.95 percent — they unpack why high-grade bonds are behaving like a safety trade, and why high-yield spreads haven't followed. The hosts reference recent flow data from LQD and HYG, discuss the role of foreign demand, and explain why this divergence matters for anyone watching the business cycle. No jargon, just the signal. #CorporateBonds #InvestmentGrade #HighYield #BondMarket #YieldSpreads #TLT #LQD #HYG #FixedIncome #CreditMarkets #EconomicSlowdown #TreasuryYields #FedPolicy #Spreads #Liquidity #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Lucas and Luna dig into why the 30-year Treasury yield keeps bumping against 5 percent without breaking decisively higher. With the long bond yield at 4.97 percent as of this week, they explore what's holding it back—and whether that ceiling matters for mortgage rates, pension funds, and the broader economy. Lucas points to a specific factor: the Fed's rate pause and the market's shifting expectations for long-term inflation. Luna brings in the TIPS market as a tell. Along the way, they discuss the 10-year's recent drop from 4.55 to 4.45 percent, the steepening yield curve, and what real yields are saying about growth. A focused, number-driven conversation for anyone trying to understand why the long end of the Treasury market is behaving the way it is. #30YearTreasury #TreasuryYields #BondMarket #LongBond #YieldCurve #FedPause #TIPS #RealYields #MortgageRates #PensionFunds #FixedIncome #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MarketAnalysis #InvestmentStrategy #InflationExpectations #LucasAndLuna Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

With the Fed holding rates steady at 3.63 percent and the 10-year yield slipping to 4.45 percent, bond market volatility has hit its lowest level in months. Lucas and Luna explore what a rate pause signals for Treasury yields, the 2-10 spread, and corporate bond ETFs like LQD and HYG. They break down why low volatility might not last, and how traders are positioning for the next Fed move. Plus, a look at why the 5-year note is becoming the market's new anchor. This episode drills into the mechanics of a rate-pause environment and what it means for fixed-income investors. #FederalReserve #InterestRates #TreasuryYields #BondMarket #LowVolatility #2YearYield #10YearYield #YieldCurve #CorporateBonds #LQD #HYG #FixedIncome #Economics #Business #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Investing #Macro Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Episode 50 of The Bond Market Podcast explores the hidden engine of fixed-income markets: liquidity. Lucas and Luna break down why liquidity matters more than yield in today's environment, using the recent 30-year auction and the gap between on-the-run and off-the-run Treasuries as real-world examples. They explain how the 10-year yield's drop from 4.55 to 4.45 percent is partly a liquidity story, and why institutional traders watch the bid-ask spread on the 5-year note as a canary in the coal mine. If you've ever wondered why some bonds trade at a premium beyond their coupon, or why ETF prices can diverge from net asset value, this episode gives you the framework. No jargon, no fluff — just the mechanics that move trillions daily. #BondMarket #Treasuries #Liquidity #YieldCurve #FixedIncome #10YearYield #30YearBond #BidAskSpread #OnTheRun #OffTheRun #MarketMicrostructure #TreasuryAuction #BondETF #InstitutionalTrading #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Episode50 Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In episode 49 of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna explore a counterintuitive trend in the Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities market. As of mid-June 2026, the 10-year breakeven inflation rate has fallen to 2.1 percent, down from 2.4 percent in April. Yet inflows into TIPS ETFs like TIP have surged, with over $2 billion added in the past month. Lucas explains how falling breakevens actually make TIPS more attractive as a relative-value play, especially when nominal yields are compressing. Luna challenges him on whether retail investors are misreading the signal — buying inflation protection when inflation fears are receding. The hosts break down the math of TIPS pricing, the role of real yields, and why institutional demand is shifting. They also touch on the 30-year yield hovering near 4.97 percent, and what the steepening curve means for TIPS duration. A must-listen for fixed-income investors navigating the late-cycle bond market. #TIPS #Inflation #TreasuryBonds #RealYield #BreakevenRate #BondMarket #FixedIncome #TIP #Investing #Economics #FederalReserve #YieldCurve #InflationProtection #ETFs #PortfolioStrategy #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #BondMarketPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

On this episode of The Bond Market Podcast with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna explore why the 5-year Treasury note—yielding 4.20 percent as of June 12, 2026—has become the most reliable signal for where rates are heading. They explain how its unique maturity makes it a clean read on Federal Reserve policy expectations, why it has dropped less than other maturities in the recent rally, and what that means for investors building a bond ladder. Lucas cites a new analysis showing the 5-year note now explains over 70 percent of the variance in mortgage rates, making it a crucial benchmark for anyone holding fixed-income portfolios. With the 2-year yield stuck near 4.13 percent and the 10-year at 4.55 percent, the 5-year stands out as the truest gauge of the market's rate-cut timeline. #5YearNote #TreasuryYields #BondMarket #FixedIncome #FederalReserve #RateCuts #YieldCurve #BondLadder #MortgageRates #Investing #Economics #Finance #Podcast #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MarketSignal #Bellwether #BondStrategy Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Lucas and Luna break down why the 2-year Treasury yield has been stuck near 4.13% for weeks — even as the 10-year and 30-year yields drift higher. They explore the role of the Fed's interest on reserve balances (IORB) at 3.65%, the 3-month bill yield at 3.79%, and the market's view on rate cuts through 2027. Using the current 2-10 spread of 40 basis points and declining 5-year note yield, they explain why the front end of the curve is sending a different signal than the long end. Specific numbers, no jargon. #2YearTreasury #TreasuryYields #FedPolicy #IORB #YieldCurve #BondMarket #FixedIncome #Economics #RateCuts #ShortEnd #FrontEnd #Liquidity #BasisPoints #FOMC #TreasuryNotes #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #BondMarketPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The 5-year Treasury note yield has fallen below 4.2 percent, dropping 2.1 percent over the last five days. In this episode, Lucas and Luna break down why this move matters for the bond market. They discuss how the 5-year note has become the new bellwether for interest rate expectations, as it sits in the middle of the curve and reflects both Fed policy expectations and long-term growth forecasts. Lucas explains the concept of 'curve convexity' and why the 5-year note is more sensitive to rate cut expectations than the 2-year or 10-year. They also look at how the drop in the 5-year yield is pulling the 10-year yield lower, and what that means for homeowners, corporate borrowers, and ETF investors. Using the latest data from June 12, 2026, they show how the 5-year yield is now trading below the 2-year yield, and what that inversion pattern signals. #5YearNote #TreasuryYields #BondMarket #InterestRates #FedPolicy #YieldCurve #CurveConvexity #Bellwether #ETFs #IEF #SHY #TLT #Economics #Finance #FixedIncome #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MarketAnalysis Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Lucas and Luna explore why the 5-year Treasury note is increasingly becoming the market's favored indicator for rate expectations, even as the 2-year and 10-year get more headlines. Lucas explains how the 5-year's yield of 4.20% sits at a key inflection point, reflecting a tug-of-war between near-term Fed cuts and long-term inflation uncertainty. They discuss how institutional traders are using 5-year futures to hedge rate bets ahead of the next FOMC meeting, and why the note's liquidity has surged this quarter. The episode also touches on how this shift affects bond ETF investors, using IEF and SHY as examples. A focused, data-driven conversation for anyone tired of curve-spread clichés. #Treasury #5YearNote #YieldCurve #BondMarket #FixedIncome #FOMC #FederalReserve #InterestRates #Economics #Investing #BondETF #IEF #SHY #TLT #Liquidity #Hedging #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

On June 11, 2026, the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.03 percent, a level not sustained since late 2023. Lucas and Luna break down what drove it there—term premium repricing, fiscal supply fears, and the Fed's rate path—and what it signals for long-term borrowers, pension funds, and the broader bond market. They anchor the conversation around the 30-year's move from 4.8 percent in early May to above 5 percent today, and what history says about yields staying at this level. No alarmism, just the mechanics and the stakes. #30YearTreasury #BondYield #TermPremium #TreasurySupply #FedPolicy #FixedIncome #YieldCurve #LongBonds #TLT #BondMarket #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #TheBondMarketPodcast #LucasAndLuna #PensionFunds #Yield5Percent #June2026 Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Episode 43 of The Bond Market Podcast digs into a paradox: the 10-year yield is stuck above 4.5 percent, the 30-year is near 5 percent, yet implied volatility on Treasuries is near multi-year lows. Lucas and Luna explore what the MOVE index tells us about market psychology, why the Fed's steady hand and range-bound yields are luring dip-buyers, and how this low-volatility regime can change fast. They anchor the discussion on current data: the 2-year yield at 4.15 percent, the 10-year at 4.56, and the spread at 40 basis points. Listeners learn one concrete insight about MOVE versus VIX divergence and what it means for bond positioning in June 2026. #Treasuries #MOVEIndex #BondVolatility #LowVolatility #10YearYield #30YearYield #YieldCurve #FedPolicy #FixedIncome #BondMarket #EconomicRegime #June2026 #TreasuryBonds #MarketPsychology #BondTrading #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Episode 42 of The Bond Market Podcast with Fexingo. Lucas and Luna unpack why the 10-year Treasury yield is stubbornly holding above 4.5 percent as of June 10, 2026. They examine the 4.53 percent level on the 10-year note, the 5.01 percent on the long bond, and the widening gap between short-term rates and long-term yields. The hosts discuss how the Fed's rate-cut pause, sticky inflation data from the spring, and the government's $1.2 trillion quarterly refunding schedule are keeping term premiums elevated. They also explore what this means for corporate bond spreads, as LQD trades at 108.41 and HYG at 79.62. A brief listener-supported moment explains how the show stays ad-free. This episode drills into one specific number — why 4.5 percent feels like a floor, not a ceiling, for the benchmark yield. #10YearYield #TreasuryBonds #BondMarket #FederalReserve #Inflation #TermPremium #YieldCurve #FixedIncome #LQD #HYG #TLT #EconomicIndicators #RateCuts #Refunding #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Investing #Economics Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Lucas and Luna dig into the 2-year Treasury yield, which is hovering near 4.17% as of June 5, 2026, defying expectations of a sharper drop. They explain why the 2-year is the market's best gauge of rate-cut timing, how it differs from the Fed funds rate at 3.62%, and what the 41-basis-point gap between the 2-year and 10-year yields signals about the economy. Using recent data on SOFR and the 5-year yield at 4.26%, they walk through what bond traders are pricing in for the next Fed meeting. Plus: a look at why short-duration ETFs like SHY are trading near par, while longer-duration funds like TLT are down. No fluff, just the mechanics behind the yield curve's most telling maturity. #TwoYearYield #TreasuryNotes #FedRateCuts #YieldCurve #BondMarket #InterestRates #FixedIncome #MonetaryPolicy #CentralBanking #SOFR #SHY #TLT #DurationRisk #RecessionSignal #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #BondInvesting Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The yield curve has been inverted for over two years, but in early June 2026, the spread between the 3-month T-bill and the 10-year Treasury turned positive for the first time since October 2022. Lucas and Luna break down what that shift means — not as a recession signal, but as a window into how the bond market is repricing expectations for Fed policy, inflation, and economic growth. They walk through the mechanics of the 3-month to 10-year spread, why it matters more than the 2-10 spread for some investors, and what the current 4.55% 10-year yield versus 3.78% 3-month bill yield tells us about the next six months. No clickbait, just the numbers and what they imply for fixed-income strategy. #3MonthTBill #10YearTreasury #YieldCurve #Spread #BondMarket #FixedIncome #Treasuries #FedPolicy #InterestRates #Inversion #Normalization #RecessionSignal #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #BondMarketPodcast #LucasAndLuna #June2026 Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

On this episode of The Bond Market Podcast with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna break down the widening spread between the 3-month T-bill yield and the 10-year Treasury note. As of June 8, 2026, the 3-month yield sits at 3.78 percent while the 10-year is at 4.47 percent — a 69-basis-point gap that tells a story about market expectations and Fed policy. The hosts explain why this particular spread matters more than the inverted 2-10 curve, how it affects money market fund flows, and what it signals about the path of rate cuts. They also touch on the sticky short-end yields despite a hot jobs report, and what bond investors should watch next. No fluff, just the numbers that matter. #ThreeMonthTBill #TenYearTreasury #YieldCurve #Spread #FedPolicy #RateCuts #ShortEnd #BondMarket #TreasuryYields #Liquidity #MoneyMarketFunds #JobsReport #FederalReserve #BondInvesting #FixedIncome #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Lucas and Luna explore why the 3-month Treasury bill yield has barely budged at 3.78% while longer-term yields have moved notably in recent weeks. They unpack what this sticky short-end tells us about market expectations for the Fed, the liquidity preference of investors parking cash, and what it might signal about near-term rate policy. They also reference the recent hot jobs report and its implications for Chair Warsh's policy path, and explain why the bill yield's flatness could be a clue about market stress or complacency. A concise, data-driven conversation for fixed-income enthusiasts. #3MonthTBill #TreasuryBills #FedPolicy #ChairWarsh #JobsReport #YieldCurve #ShortEnd #LiquidityPreference #MoneyMarkets #FixedIncome #BondMarket #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #InterestRates #CashParking #MarketStress #RateCuts Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Episode 37 of The Bond Market Podcast with Fexingo drills into the 3-month Treasury bill yield, which sits at 3.78 percent as of June 4, 2026 — flat while the rest of the curve shifts. Lucas and Luna explain why the shortest Treasury is the bond market's canary in the coal mine, how its spread to the fed funds rate signals liquidity stress, and what the flat bill yield tells us about market anxiety versus the hot jobs report that pushed rate cut expectations further out. They walk through the mechanics of the 3-month bill as a cash-equivalent benchmark, recent quirks in the Treasury bill market during QT, and why investors should watch the 3-month yield even if they only own 10-year notes. No fluff, no ticker tape — just a focused conversation about why the front end of the curve matters right now. #TreasuryBills #3MonthTBill #BondMarket #FixedIncome #YieldCurve #FedPolicy #MarketAnxiety #Liquidity #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #BondInvesting #TreasuryYields #QT #FedFundsRate #CashManagement #PortfolioStrategy #ShortEndOfCurve Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Episode 36 of The Bond Market Podcast with Fexingo dives into the recent steepening of the 2-year to 10-year yield spread, which hit 38 basis points in early June 2026. Lucas and Luna break down what this curve move signals about the economy, the Fed’s next move, and how bond investors should adjust their portfolios. With the 10-year yield at 4.47 percent and the 2-year at 4.05 percent, the spread has widened from negative territory last year. The hosts explain why this steepening matters for duration positioning, the bond ETFs like TLT and SHY, and what it means for the mortgage market. Specific numbers and real fund flows ground the conversation. A must-listen for fixed-income investors navigating the shifting rate landscape. #YieldCurve #SpreadSteepening #TwoYearTreasury #TenYearTreasury #BondMarket #FixedIncome #FederalReserve #RateCuts #Duration #TLT #SHY #MBS #MortgageRates #BondETF #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Investing Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Episode 35 of The Bond Market Podcast with Fexingo dives into why the 30-year Treasury yield is hovering near 5 percent as of June 6, 2026, and what that signals for long-term borrowers, retirees, and the broader economy. Lucas and Luna examine the latest data showing the 30-year yield at 4.97 percent, up from 4.99 percent earlier in the week, while the 10-year sits at 4.47 percent and the 2-year at 4.05 percent. They discuss the steepening yield curve, the implications of the hot May jobs report that pushed rate-cut expectations further out, and how the long bond is reacting to fiscal and inflation uncertainty. Tune in for a focused, conversational breakdown of the long end of the curve and what bond investors should watch next. #30YearTreasury #LongBond #BondMarket #TreasuryYields #YieldCurve #Fed #RateCuts #Inflation #FiscalPolicy #RetirementIncome #BondInvesting #YieldsNear5Percent #June2026 #Economics #Finance #FixedIncome #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The 30-year Treasury yield is hovering just below 5 percent. Lucas and Luna explain what that level signals about long-term inflation expectations, fiscal policy, and the bond market's view of the next decade. They break down why the long bond is moving independently from the rest of the curve and what that means for mortgage rates, pension funds, and your portfolio. No hot takes, just a clear look at the data as of June 6, 2026. #30YearTreasury #LongBond #YieldCurve #BondMarket #FixedIncome #TreasuryYields #InflationExpectations #FiscalPolicy #FederalReserve #TermPremium #MortgageRates #PensionFunds #PortfolioStrategy #Economics #Investing #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #TheBondMarketPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Lucas and Luna dissect the surprising rise in the 3-month Treasury bill yield to 3.78 percent, up from 3.77. While most attention is on the 10-year and 2-year, the short end of the curve is flashing a subtle warning. With the 10-year yield at 4.49 and the curve steepening, the 3-month rate—a proxy for funding stress and liquidity—has been creeping higher even as the Fed holds rates steady. Lucas explains what drives this yield, how it relates to repo markets and money market funds, and why a rising 3-month yield can signal that banks are hoarding cash. Luna weighs in with a historical example from September 2019 when similar moves preceded a repo crisis. They also explore what the current 42 basis point spread between the 10-year and 2-year tells us about recession odds, and why the 3-month might be the canary in the coal mine. Along the way, they touch on the Fed's interest on reserve balances at 3.65 and how that anchors the front end. A focused look at the forgotten yield that matters. #3MonthTBill #TreasuryYields #BondMarket #ShortEnd #LiquidityRisk #FundingStress #FedPolicy #IOER #MoneyMarkets #RepoMarket #YieldCurve #CurveSteepening #EconomicIndicator #RecessionSignal #Finance #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The 2-year Treasury yield has been hovering near 4.08 percent as of early June 2026, and it's sending a very specific signal about when the Fed might actually cut rates. In this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack why the short end of the curve matters more than the 10-year for rate-cut timing, how the 2-year yield has moved in lockstep with Fed fund futures, and what the current 42-basis-point spread between the 10-year and 2-year says about market expectations. They also explain the mechanics — why a falling 2-year yield often precedes the first rate cut, and why the current level suggests the market is pricing in one cut later this year, but not a full easing cycle. No jargon, no fluff. Just the bond market signal that matters most right now. #2YearTreasury #RateCuts #FederalReserve #BondMarket #YieldCurve #MonetaryPolicy #InterestRates #TreasuryYields #FixedIncome #Investing #Economics #Finance #FOMC #FedFundsRate #ShortEnd #MarketExpectations #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Lucas and Luna explore how credit ratings have become the dominant force in corporate bond trading, even surpassing yield in some strategies. They examine the shift from ratings as compliance tools to active trading signals, using recent data on investment-grade ETF flows and the spread between AAA and BBB bonds. The episode breaks down why traders now watch rating agency moves as closely as Fed statements, and what the 41-basis-point spread between 10-year and 2-year yields tells us about credit market confidence. A focused look at a quiet revolution in fixed-income markets. #CreditRatings #CorporateBonds #InvestmentGrade #SpreadTrading #BondMarket #FixedIncome #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #S&P500 #ETFs #LQD #IG #HYG #YieldCurve #FedPolicy #RiskManagement #BondTrading Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Episode 30 of The Bond Market Podcast examines mortgage-backed securities and the widening MBS spread as a signal for fixed-income investors. Lucas and Luna break down how the spread over Treasuries has moved to 150 basis points, what that implies for prepayment risk and Fed policy, and why agency MBS might be a contrarian play in mid-2026. Using current data—10-year yield at 4.46, 30-year at 4.97, and the TLT ETF at 85.31—they connect the dots between housing, the yield curve, and portfolio strategy. A must-listen for anyone curious about how the bond market's less-talked-about corners reflect broader economic stress. #MBS #MortgageBackedSecurities #BondMarket #Treasuries #YieldCurve #FixedIncome #FedPolicy #PrepaymentRisk #AgencyMBS #SpreadWidening #TLT #IEF #BND #30YearTreasury #10YearYield #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Lucas and Luna dive into why investment-grade corporate bond ETFs like LQD and AGG are trading below their net asset values — and what that tells you about liquidity stress in fixed-income markets. They unpack the mechanics of ETF pricing versus underlying bonds, the role of authorized participants, and why the current discounts are a symptom of a bigger structural shift. With the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.47 percent and credit spreads still tight, the disconnect in ETF pricing is a signal worth watching. A practical episode for anyone who buys bond ETFs and wants to understand what 'price versus value' really means. #LQD #AGG #BondMarket #ETF #FixedIncome #InvestmentGrade #CorporateBonds #Liquidity #NetAssetValue #AuthorizedParticipant #Spread #Treasury #Yield #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #BondETF #Finance Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode, Lucas and Luna break down the recent steepening of the Treasury yield curve — where the 10-year yield has risen to 4.47% while the 2-year sits at 4.05%, widening the spread to 42 basis points. They explain what drives a steepening curve, how it signals shifting expectations for Fed policy and economic growth, and what bond investors should watch next. Along the way, they discuss the role of the 30-year yield hovering near 5%, the impact on mortgage rates, and why this steepening might be different from past cycles. A practical guide for anyone trying to read the bond market's signals. #TreasuryYields #YieldCurve #BondMarket #CurveSteepening #FedPolicy #10YearYield #2YearYield #30YearYield #FixedIncome #Economics #Investing #InterestRates #MortgageRates #BondInvestors #PortfolioStrategy #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #TheBondMarketPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Episode 27 of The Bond Market Podcast with Fexingo cuts to the foundation: the fed funds rate. Lucas and Luna walk through how a 3.62% effective rate shapes everything from 2-year notes to 30-year bonds, using the latest data from June 2, 2026. They explain why short-term yields track the fed funds rate almost mechanically, how the yield curve's current 42-basis-point spread between 10-year and 2-year reflects rate cut expectations, and what happens when the Fed stops or starts moving. No jargon, no fluff — just a clear mental model for anyone who wants to understand what moves bond prices. Plus, a look at how Greg Abel's recent Berkshire dealmaking fits into the rate environment. If you've ever wondered why Treasury yields seem to dance to the Fed's tune, this episode connects the dots. #FedFundsRate #TreasuryYields #BondMarket #YieldCurve #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #InterestRates #ShortTermRates #LongTermRates #TwoYearYield #TenYearYield #ThirtyYearYield #SpreadTrading #GregAbel #BerkshireHathaway #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode of The Bond Market Podcast with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna drill into Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) and what their real yields signal about the current economic environment. With the 10-year nominal yield flat at 4.45 percent and the 30-year yield nudging 5 percent, the hosts examine the breakeven inflation rate and how TIPS are pricing in future CPI. Lucas walks through the mechanics of inflation-adjusted principal, the difference between nominal and real yields, and why the TIPS ETF (TIP) has been outperforming nominal Treasuries lately. Luna presses on whether TIPS still make sense if inflation continues to moderate. The conversation closes with a look at the inflation risk premium and what the 5-year TIPS yield implies for Fed policy. A natural, investor-focused primer for anyone wondering how to preserve purchasing power in a bond portfolio. #TIPS #TreasuryInflationProtectedSecurities #RealYield #NominalYield #BreakevenInflationRate #TreasuryBonds #BondMarket #FixedIncome #Investing #Inflation #CPI #FederalReserve #BondETF #TIP #Economics #BondPodcast #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Lucas and Luna explain the Fed's new approach to quantitative tightening—letting bonds roll off passively without active sales. They discuss what this means for the yield curve, with the 2-year at 3.99% and the 10-year at 4.45%, and why the 30-year yield remains stubbornly near 5%. Plus, a look at how the Fed's balance sheet strategy is keeping short-term rates steady. #Fed #QuantitativeTightening #QT #YieldCurve #TreasuryYields #BondMarket #MonetaryPolicy #CentralBank #30YearYield #InvertedCurve #PassiveQT #BalanceSheet #Economics #FixedIncome #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #BondMarketPodcast #Fexingo Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The yield curve has been inverted for over two years, but in May 2026 the 10-year minus 2-year spread turned positive again — now at 47 basis points. Lucas and Luna unpack what this normalization means for bond investors, mortgage rates, and recession signals. They walk through the historical track record of curve steepening, the role of the 3-month yield still above the 10-year, and how to position a portfolio when the curve is no longer inverted but not yet steep. Specific numbers from the latest Treasury data ground the conversation, including the 10-year at 4.45 percent and the 2-year at 3.99 percent. A practical episode for anyone wondering if the inverted yield curve is still a recession warning — or if the all-clear has sounded. #YieldCurve #10YearYield #2YearYield #Treasuries #BondMarket #CurveNormalization #RecessionSignal #FixedIncome #PortfolioStrategy #SteepeningCurve #Inversion #FedPolicy #InterestRates #InvestmentStrategy #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #BondMarketPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The yield curve has been inverted for over 700 days – a record stretch that historically preceded every recession. Lucas and Luna break down what the 2-year versus 10-year spread of 47 basis points signals today, using current data from May 28, 2026. They explore why this inversion hasn't triggered a downturn yet, what the 3-month to 10-year spread adds to the picture, and how the curve's eventual normalization could reshape bond strategy. With the 30-year yield at 4.99% and the 2-year at 3.99%, the conversation drills into what happens when the curve finally steepens – and why investors shouldn't wait for the all-clear signal. No hype, just the numbers and the history that matter. #YieldCurve #InvertedYieldCurve #Treasuries #BondMarket #RecessionSignal #2Year10YearSpread #FedPolicy #EconomicIndicator #FixedIncome #BondInvesting #CurveNormalization #MacroEconomics #Finance #InvestmentStrategy #MarketAnalysis #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #BondMarketPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Episode 22 of The Bond Market Podcast zeroes in on the 7-year Treasury note — a maturity that sits between the Fed-sensitive short end and the macro-driven long bond. Lucas and Luna explain why the 7-year has become a liquidity barometer for institutional investors, especially pension funds and foreign central banks. They break down the current 4.15% yield, how it compares to the 5-year and 10-year, and what the flattening slope between them signals about rate expectations. Using the latest data from May 28, 2026, they discuss the 7-year auction cycle, the role of primary dealers, and why this maturity often leads the curve during policy uncertainty. A must for understanding the less-trafficked middle of the yield curve. #7YearTreasury #TreasuryNotes #YieldCurve #BondMarket #FixedIncome #Liquidity #InstitutionalInvestors #PensionFunds #CentralBanks #FedPolicy #RateHikes #MichelleBowman #Economics #Finance #Investing #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #TheBondMarketPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The 20-year Treasury bond is the overlooked maturity on the curve, but right now it offers a yield premium over both the 10-year and 30-year bonds. Lucas and Luna examine why the 20-year yield sits at 4.65 percent, how it became a liquidity oddity after its reintroduction in 2020, and what the gap between the 20-year and 30-year yields signals about the market's view on long-term inflation and fiscal risk. They also look at how the 20-year bond can fit into a laddered portfolio strategy, and why recent trading volumes suggest growing interest from both retail and institutional investors. #Treasury #20YearBond #YieldCurve #BondMarket #FixedIncome #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #TreasuryBonds #YieldPremium #LadderStrategy #InflationRisk #Liquidity #PortfolioStrategy #Finance #Investing #FiscalPolicy #LongTermBonds Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The ten-year Treasury yield has slipped to 4.45 percent, down from 4.48 percent last week. Lucas and Luna look at why this matters for bond investors — and what it says about the market's expectation for rate cuts. They talk about the 30-year yield hovering near 5 percent, the short end of the curve still above 3.5 percent, and how the yield curve is flattening again. They also touch on what a Fed governor's recent warning means for the path ahead. If you've been watching yields move and wondering what the signal is, this episode gives you a practical lens. #TreasuryYields #10YearYield #BondMarket #FixedIncome #FedPolicy #YieldCurve #RateCuts #30YearYield #3MonthYield #TLT #IEF #Investing #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #BondInvesting #MarketAnalysis #May2026 Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Lucas and Luna explore a less-discussed corner of the Treasury market: the 3-year note. With the 3-year yield sitting at 3.94% and the 10-year at 4.48%, the spread between them has narrowed sharply. They explain why this mid-curve maturity is a better indicator of the Fed's expected rate path than the 2-year or 5-year, and how a flattening 3-10 spread signals market skepticism about future rate cuts. The hosts break down what the 3-year's sensitivity to Fed policy changes means for bond investors right now, using recent auction demand and real yield data. A focused look at why this maturity matters more than you think. #3YearNote #TreasuryYields #BondMarket #FedRatePath #YieldCurve #MidCurveMaturities #TreasuryAuctions #FixedIncome #Investing #RateCuts #BondInvesting #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Podcast #May2026 #YieldSpread #PortfolioStrategy Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The 5-year Treasury yield has fallen to 4.16 percent, down over two percent in the last week. Lucas and Luna explore what this move signals about the bond market's expectations for the economy and the Fed. They break down the dynamics driving the short-to-intermediate part of the curve, from growth concerns to rate-cut bets, and what it means for investors in ETFs like IEF. With the 2-year yield at 4 percent and the 10-year at 4.48, the steepening curve tells a story. This episode drills into the 5-year as the market's real action zone right now. #5YearYield #TreasuryYields #BondMarket #FixedIncome #YieldCurve #FedPolicy #RateCuts #EconomicGrowth #IEF #TLT #SHY #BND #AGG #Investing #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #BondInvesting Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

On May 28, 2026, the 10-year Treasury yield dipped to 4.45 percent, its lowest in weeks. Lucas and Luna unpack what's driving the move: a batch of softer economic data, a flat Fed funds rate at 3.64 percent, and the market's growing conviction that the next rate cut is closer than expected. They walk through the mechanics of how falling long-term yields affect bond ETFs like TLT and IEF, and why the 10-year is the single most important number in global finance. If you've ever wondered why a 0.10 percent yield move matters for your 401(k) or mortgage rate, this episode makes it concrete. #10YearTreasury #BondYield #TreasuryYield #TLT #IEF #FedRateCut #BondMarket #FixedIncome #InvestmentGrade #LongTermBonds #YieldCurve #BondETF #PassiveIncome #EconomicData #RateCutBet #TreasuryBonds #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Everyone watches the 2-year and 10-year yields. But the 5-year Treasury note is quietly stealing the spotlight as the most sensitive part of the curve right now. With the 5-year yield at 4.18% after dropping nearly 2% in a week, Lucas and Luna unpack why this maturity is the bond market's canary in the coal mine. They explore how the 5-year yield has become a battleground between Fed expectations and real-world economic data, why its spread to the 2-year is tightening, and what that signals for rate-cut timing. Using the latest data from late May 2026, they show how intermediate-term bonds are pricing in a different story than the short or long ends. This episode is perfect for investors who want to look past the usual yield-curve headlines and understand what the middle of the curve is really saying. #5YearTreasury #IntermediateBonds #YieldCurve #BondMarket #TreasuryYields #FedPolicy #FOMC #RateCuts #FixedIncome #Economics #InvestmentStrategy #Macro #MarketAnalysis #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #BondInvesting #May2026 #YieldWatch Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Lucas and Luna explore how the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate—the Fed funds rate—acts as the anchor for the entire bond market. Using live data from late May 2026, they show how the 3-month yield sits just 4 basis points below the interest on reserve balances, the 2-year yield has risen sharply to 4.13%, and the 10-year yield sits at 4.56%. They explain the transmission mechanism from Fed policy to short-term Treasuries, then to longer maturities, and discuss what the current flatness at the front end signals about rate cut expectations. A clear, example-driven breakdown of the plumbing behind yield movements. #FederalReserve #FedFundsRate #TreasuryYields #MonetaryPolicy #InterestRates #BondMarket #Economics #FOMC #YieldCurve #CentralBanking #ShortTermRates #ThreeMonthYield #TwoYearYield #TenYearYield #IOER #RateCuts #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna dig into the short end of the Treasury yield curve, focusing on the 2-year and 3-month yields. With the 10-year yield hovering around 4.5 percent and the Fed Funds rate at 3.64 percent, the gap between short-term yields and the Fed's policy rate is sending a clear signal about where the market thinks rates are headed. Lucas explains how the 3-month yield acts as a floor for short-term rates and why its recent flatness near 3.68 percent suggests the market is pricing in rate cuts. Luna brings in historical context from the 2019 rate-cut cycle and the 2023 banking turmoil to show what similar yield patterns have meant. They also discuss how the belly of the curve (5-year yield at 4.18 percent) is responding to mixed economic data, and what that means for bond investors positioning for a potential pivot by the Fed. No fluff, just specific numbers and clear logic for anyone who wants to understand what the yield curve is saying today. #TreasuryYields #YieldCurve #FedRateCuts #ShortEnd #2YearYield #3MonthYield #5YearYield #BondMarket #FixedIncome #MonetaryPolicy #FOMC #RateCycle #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #BondInvesting #Treasuries #CentralBank Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The 30-year Treasury bond yield has been stuck above 5 percent for weeks. Lucas and Luna dig into what that stubborn level says about long-term inflation expectations, term premium, and the bond market's quiet bet on fiscal policy. They look at the 5.03 percent reading from May 26, 2026, contrast it with the 4.57 percent 10-year yield, and ask whether the long bond is finally offering compensation for the risks ahead. Along the way, they discuss how the 30-year yield influences mortgage rates, corporate borrowing, and pension fund allocations. A focused look at one yield that ties together monetary policy, government debt, and economic confidence. #30YearBondYield #LongBondYield #TreasuryMarket #TermPremium #InflationExpectations #FixedIncome #BondMarket #TreasuryBonds #FiscalPolicy #FederalReserve #EconomicIndicators #Investing #BondInvesting #InterestRates #YieldCurve #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Episode 12 of The Bond Market Podcast examines the tightening spread between high-yield corporate bonds and Treasuries in late May 2026. Lucas and Luna break down why the HYG ETF is up while the 30-year yield sits above 5 percent, and what it means for risk appetite. They discuss how the 10-year yield at 4.56 percent and the two-year at 4.08 percent create a steepening curve, and why investors are chasing yield in junk bonds despite macro uncertainty from U.S.-China trade tensions. The episode explains the mechanics of credit spreads, the role of the Fed's interest on reserve balances at 3.65 percent, and what happens when spreads compress to historic lows. A concise look at one of the bond market's most telling signals. #HighYieldBonds #CreditSpreads #HYG #LQD #Treasuries #10YearYield #30YearYield #YieldCurve #JunkBonds #CorporateBonds #Fed #InterestRates #RiskOn #TradeTensions #China #USChina #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo