How the Inverted Yield Curve Un-Inverted Without a Recession

Episode 50 of The Bond Investing Podcast with Fexingo. The yield curve inverted in 2022, predicted recession, and then un-inverted in 2025 without one arriving. Lucas and Luna break down what actually happened: the role of the term premium, how 2026's 10-year yield at 4.49 percent fits into the story, and why the 10y-2y spread at 0.39 matters now. They look at the difference between the 2020 inversion (which did predict a recession) and the 2022-2025 inversion (which didn't), explain the term premium's return from negative territory, and discuss what the current 39-basis-point spread signals for bond strategy. Specific, data-driven, and built for investors who want to understand the curve beyond the headlines. #YieldCurve #Inversion #BondMarket #Treasuries #TermPremium #Macro #Finance #Investing #FixedIncome #FederalReserve #LucasAndLuna #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #TreasuryYields #10YearYield #2YearYield #Spread #RecessionSignal Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo