How the Yield Curve is Steepening Without a Recession

In episode 60 of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna explore a remarkable anomaly in the Treasury market in June 2026: the yield curve has been steepening sharply over the past five trading days, but not because the economy is weakening. Instead, long-term yields have dropped faster than short-term yields, compressing the 10-year from 4.47 to 4.43 and the 30-year from 4.97 to 4.90. Meanwhile the 2-year yield barely budged. This type of curve flattening via a long-end rally is historically rare outside of flight-to-safety events. The hosts examine what's driving demand for long-dated Treasuries in a world where the Fed is on hold at 3.63 percent and the new Fed chair Kevin Warsh has signaled a more hawkish stance. They discuss whether this is a genuine repricing of growth expectations or just repositioning ahead of next week's refunding announcement. No recession call, no panic — just a market that is pricing something different than many investors expect. Tune in for a focused, data-rich breakdown of the curve mechanics that matter right now. #YieldCurve #Treasuries #BondMarket #FederalReserve #KevinWarsh #Steepening #Flattening #10YearYield #30YearYield #2YearYield #FixedIncome #Economics #Business #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Podcast #Investing #CurveDynamics Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo