How to map assumptions that could sink your campaign | Oliver Raskin (Miro, Meta, Uber)

Assumption Audit: The Step Most Marketers SkipMost marketing failures don’t stem from bad creative, poor media buys, or weak strategy. They start earlier, at the assumption level. In this episode of ExperiMENTAL, Sundar sits down with Oliver Raskin, Head of Research at Miro and former insights lead at Meta and Uber, to break down why assumptions kill great ideas and how marketers can audit them before launching campaigns. They explore the difference between optimism and magical thinking, why misalignment festers in kickoff meetings, and how to rewire processes to avoid costly mistakes. If you’ve ever wondered why “obvious” campaigns flop, this episode is a must-listen.Key Takeaways• Research is part inspo, part reality check, part insurance policy• Most marketing starts by solutioning instead of defining the real problem• Assumptions around audience, channels, and timing go unchecked• Kickoffs are the hidden leverage point in campaign success• "Pay now or pay later" is the cost of skipping alignment• Research isn’t slow, bad process is• Clarity of goal always surfaces hidden disagreements• Synthetic audiences and qualitative at scale are changing research• Surveys are dying, and that’s a good thing• Messaging must map clearly from assertion to beliefBest Moments00:02:20. “This role is part inspo, part reality check, and part like insurance policy.”00:04:52. “Each piece that you’ve made a wrong assumption on chips away at your likelihood of being successful.”00:07:18. “These are people problems, not data problems.”00:09:10. “You relitigate these decisions over and over again because they probably needed to have been litigated properly once.”00:11:12. “We’re already solutioning at this point.”00:17:05. “Be explicit about all the things that need to be true in order for that outcome to be reached.”00:28:47. “I’ll put you on the right trail. You’ll have to do a lot of iteration to get up the mountain, but at least you’re climbing the right mountain.”00:41:20. “It’s the why, what, and how of your pyramid.”00:54:55. “Take the time to make your assumptions explicit. It might feel uncomfortable, but it’s worth it.”🎧 ExperiMENTAL is hosted by Sundar Swaminathan, Head of Data Science at Bounce and former Uber leader. This show is your behind-the-scenes look at how top marketers and data scientists make smarter decisions.🧠 Expect unfiltered conversations, mental models, and case studies that help you cut waste, build conviction, and grow your B2C business.📬 Subscribe to the ExperiMENTAL newsletter for deep dives and frameworks: https://experimental.beehiiv.com/This podcast has been brought to you by APodcastGeek. https://www.apodcastgeek.com