How to Pick the Winners and Avoid the Losers in Gold Stocks

On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey are joined by fellow Stansberry Research analysts John Doody and Garrett Goggin. John, an ex-economics professor, started Gold Stock Analyst (GSA) in 1994 and even popularized the metric "market cap per ounce." Meanwhile, Garrett is a chartered financial analyst and certified market technician who started his career on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange before ultimately joining GSA in 2010. Dan and Corey start off by talking about how economists have continued to call for a recession in the coming three months... for the past nine months. With consumer spending growing, gross domestic product ("GDP") rising, and the housing market looking better, the two discuss the possibility that we're already in a recession... and question whether we need to reevaluate the criteria for a recession. Dan notes that despite two consecutive quarters of negative GDP – the textbook definition of a recession – an official recession has still not been called. John and Garrett then join the conversation to discuss the recent run on banks. Garrett notes that the federal-funds rate is too high. With the economy slowing down, he says that the Federal Reserve will have to start cutting rates soon. Plus, if the government raises the debt ceiling, the Fed's balance sheet will continue higher. This will be a good thing for gold. As Garrett explains... A banker's best friend is a shareholder's worst enemy. The conversation then shifts to John's gold stock portfolio. He mentions that he only looks for companies that have already completed a feasibility study or are already in the production stage. John points out that the gold companies in his portfolio are all at different stages in the process. He also warns that there could be a two- to three-year period after the feasibility study where nothing exciting happens to the stock. Adding to that, Garrett emphasizes that when looking at gold companies, it's imperative to analyze how the company is being managed. That way, you can make sure it's generating good shareholder value. Lastly, Garrett and John argue that royalty companies are structured to get lucky... by locking in costs. The companies do this so that as the price of gold rises, they can continue expanding. As long as one of its 100 mines does well, a royalty company will thrive. Royalty stocks certainly have their benefits in comparison with mining stocks. But as John and Garrett discuss, mining stocks are also extremely leveraged.