How to Spot a Top
from Hedge Heads
Most market chatter is noise. Spreads aren't. This week, Jon Prischmann breaks down the one indicator he trusts more than any headline, analyst note, or social media hot take: the corn spreads that quietly revealed last year's top weeks before the break. He walks through how March–May corn acted ahead of the 2023 peak, why commercials can't hide their real needs, and how spreads give producers the earliest—and most reliable—warning sign that a market is running out of gas. Jon and Ryan also dive into why basis can mislead, what makes corn spreads different from beans and wheat, and how this year's structure compares to the last three crop cycles. They wrap with a fast-moving look at cattle's explosive rebound, option mispricing, and why volatility is rewriting the rules in multiple markets. If you've ever wondered how to know when the top is really in, this episode lays out the roadmap.
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