How to Stress-Test Your Retirement Plan Like a Pro

In this 100th episode of Wealth Building with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna explore the concept of stress-testing your retirement plan — a process most savers skip. Using the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic as case studies, they walk through a simple method: run your withdrawal plan through a Monte Carlo simulation with at least 1,000 scenarios, then stress it with a 50% market drop in year one. They explain how the Vanguard Retirement Nest Egg Calculator and Kitces' 'Ruin Probability' framework help you see if your plan survives the worst. Lucas shares a specific calculation: if you have a 60/40 portfolio and plan a 4% withdrawal, the probability of success over 30 years is about 90% — but if you raise the withdrawal to 5%, it drops to roughly 75%. They also discuss the 'guardrails' approach from Jonathan Guyton's research: cutting spending by 10% after a bad year can restore your success rate. No fluff, no product pitches — just a concrete toolkit for listeners who want to sleep well at night. #RetirementPlanning #MonteCarloSimulation #StressTesting #WithdrawalRate #FinancialIndependence #SequenceOfReturnsRisk #Guardrails #Vanguard #Kitces #Guyton #PortfolioSurvival #WealthBuilding #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Podcast100 #LongTermStrategy #CompoundGrowth #RiskManagement Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo