How to Win a Trade War: Soumaya Keynes & Chad Bown on Trump & China [Top Expert Interview]

Send us Fan MailIn this exclusive episode of Global Trade Deciphered, Justin Hayden Miller is joined by Chad Bown, former Chief Economist at the U.S. State Department under Biden-Harris and Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, Soumaya Keynes, leading FT columnist and former Economics Editor at The Economist, and They dissect the real mechanics of trade wars in 2026: President Trump’s tariffs on almost everyone, the deeper China challenge, the breakdown of the WTO rules-based system, and their view why China’s non-market subsidies and state-owned enterprises creates issues for dispute settlement. The conversation examines trade strategy through the lens of real wars — defence, logistics, vulnerabilities, stockpiling — and the attack phase of tariffs and controls. They explore companies as reluctant or obedient “soldiers” in these conflicts, Europe’s simultaneous battles with Chinese EV and solar floods alongside U.S. tariff pressure, and the evidence on whether tariffs actually deliver the terms-of-trade gains economic theory once promised.Soumaya Keynes — great-great-niece of John Maynard Keynes — reflects on how geopolitics is forcing economics to evolve, citing new research by Christopher Clayton and Jesse Schrager on supply-chain concentration and weaponised dependencies. Chad Bown draws on White House Situation Room experience to test what a smarter, China-focused strategy might look like. Essential listening for business leaders, policymakers and supply-chain strategists who need to understand the new rules of global trade before the next tariff headline lands.Published by Simon & Schuster, How to Win a Trade War is out today.If you like the podcast, please subscribe so you don't miss any episodes and leave a rating. Also tell friends and colleagues about it so the podcast can grow.*Follow Justin on X: @JustinHaydenM  or contact us by email at [email protected]  Sign up to our newsletter. (We won't spam you and will remove your email on your request.) https://substack.com/@globaltradedeciphered*Disclaimer: This podcast is simply for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not in way constitute legal, business, financial or other advice whatsoever. Should you require advice then please seek such from an appropriately qualified professional, explaining your specific circumstances.