How Treasury ETFs Are Pricing in the Fed's Next Move

With the S&P 500 at 7,580 and the Fed funds rate stuck at 3.64%, bond markets are sending mixed signals. Lucas and Luna dive into the recent TLT rally to argue it's not a rate-cut bet but a macro hedge against slowing growth. They break down the divergence between short-dated and long-dated Treasury ETFs, explain what the flattening yield curve says about recession odds, and unpack why investors are piling into intermediate-term bonds like IEF. Plus, they discuss why the Fed's Bowman warning against hiking is actually bullish for duration. If you've been watching TLT climb while the Fed holds steady, this episode explains what the bond market sees that equity markets don't. #TreasuryETFs #TLT #IEF #SHY #BondMarket #YieldCurve #FedPolicy #MichelleBowman #DurationRisk #RecessionSignal #MacroHedge #ETFs #Investing #FixedIncome #S&P500 #Finance #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo