How will Middle East conflict impact energy and the economy? With Rystad Energy Chief Economist Claudio Galimberti

Everyone at Rystad Energy’s thoughts are with our many colleagues, clients and all the people who are impacted by the conflict in the Middle East. Let’s Talk Energy and look at the impacts of the conflict in Iran. After years of threats, indirect attacks and even a short-lived direct conflict in 2025, on 28 February, the US and Israel launched massive strikes on Iran, killing its Supreme Leader and others in its political and military organizations. Iran’s oil production capacity is around 3.75 million barrels per day (bpd) and was exporting a little more than 1 million bpd – mostly to China – at the end of 2025. It also produces more than 250 billion cubic meters (Bcm) of natural gas annually for its own consumption and some regional exports and sits on one side of the critical chokepoint at the Strait of Hormuz. As of our taping at 10am US eastern time on Tuesday 3 March, retaliation by Iran and its proxies has almost completely halted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, locking about 15 million barrels of oil per day and more than 77 million tonnes of LNG out of global markets, and attacked the Ras Tanura refinery in Saudi Arabia and the Ras Laffan LNG plant in Qatar, causing both to close as a precaution.   What has been the immediate impact on global oil, natural gas and product markets?  How long could the price spikes we are seeing last and what should we be watching to understand where markets are going next? What are some potential scenarios for Iran’s future and what do they mean for its energy industry? Related Analysis On demand webinar| Middle East conflict: Oil and gas market implications (accessible to non-clients) Middle East escalation disrupts global gas supply – yet this is not 2022 (accessible to non-clients) Alert: Edition 2 – Iran conflict, Hormuz closure rock commodity markets (clients only) Asia’s oil sector to take the biggest hit from tension escalations in Iran (clients only) Thought experiment: $100 oil and a search for supply outside the Middle East (clients only) Nearly 10% of mainstream VLCCs trapped to the west of Strait of Hormuz (clients only) Maximum pressure, minimum options: Strategic dead end behind Iran strikes (clients only) Middle East escalation disrupts global gas supply – yet this is not 2022 (clients only) Gas spike after Middle East strikes lifts European power prices (clients only) Related Episodes What’s next for Venezuela? Oil production, global markets and foreign investment, with Jorge León Supply, demand and geopolitics: Oil markets in 2026 with Janiv Shah and General Index's Corey Stewart What China’s oil stockpiling means for OPEC+, prices and global trade, with Lin YeLet’s Talk Energy is a Rystad Energy Production.  Produced by: Laura Rodriguez Skaug &  Både Og.  Executive producers: Noah Brenner, Elliot Busby, Evodie Fleury-Greaker & Erik Means.  Follow us on:  LinkedIn  YouTube  Instagram  X