Hurricane Hype? Season Awakens in the Atlantic

As we head through August, it is typical for hurricane season to awaken in the Atlantic Ocean and the models are starting to hint at changes afoot. Elevated Tropical Activity: The Atlantic basin is entering a period of increased tropical activity, consistent with a "backloaded" hurricane season. Conditions are becoming more favorable for development, with warm ocean temperatures and a "La Niña light" influence.Primary Threat: A large, ill-defined tropical disturbance has just moved off the coast of Africa and is the main system of concern. It has a high probability of developing into at least a tropical storm, and there's a "good chance we’ll see Hurricane Erin out of this."Uncertain Track: The long-term track of the African disturbance is highly uncertain beyond next weekend. While many forecast models show it turning north offshore of the East Coast, some scenarios suggest a westward track potentially impacting the northeastern Caribbean or even the U.S. coast. It is too early to focus on any one location for impacts.Beware of Social Media Hype: Long-range (10-15 day) model forecasts, particularly the GFS model which "loves to spin up a storm... and bring it straight for Florida or straight for the United States," are unreliable and should be disregarded. "Online posts showing an extreme storm impacting some part of the coast are only there to get clicks."Other Systems:Tropical Storm Dexter: Has become a non-tropical system and is moving away from the U.S., posing no threat to land.Invest 96L (Central Atlantic): Odds of development have been lowered to "low range" and it is expected to turn out to sea, posing no threat to land.System offshore Carolinas: Absorbed by a cold front, posing no threat.Preparedness: Now is the time for coastal residents to review hurricane preparations.1. Current Atlantic Tropical OverviewThe Atlantic hurricane season is showing signs of increased activity as anticipated, moving towards a "backloaded" season where more significant development is expected later in August and into September. Bryan Norcross of Fox Weather notes, "The Atlantic basin really across the board is becoming more favorable for development."Colorado State University (CSU) and NOAA Outlooks: Both CSU and NOAA have released updated forecasts that indicate an above-normal season.CSU predicts "16 named storms. Eight of them become hurricanes and three Category Three and above."NOAA's similar forecast ranges from "13 to 19 named storms, 6 to 10 hurricanes, and 3 to 5 being Hurricanes of Category Three and above."The reasoning for these forecasts remains consistent: warmer-than-normal Atlantic water temperatures ("a slight plus") and a "La Niña Light" condition ("more conducive for storm development") are balanced by "upper level winds over the Caribbean have been very hostile" ("a double minus"). This balance leads to a forecast "slightly above normal."